Workplace Development: The World Belongs To Adventurous People.

With twenty percent of the profits, the capital will become active. With fifty percent profits, it will take risks. With one hundred percent of profits, it will dare to trample on all laws. If there is a three hundred percent profit, it will risk the risk of being turned.

Marx spoke of highly qualified capitalists.

Generally speaking, if a person has a stable income, he will not take the risk of fifty percent profits.

That's why most people talk about entrepreneurship just like Ye Gong Hao long.

Psychologists have a basic understanding of human nature, called Loss Aversion.

This principle says that when we face the situation of "opportunities and risks coexist", our loathing of loss is more than the joy we get.

It can even be generalized to more general situations: our fear of failure is greater than our desire for success.

In the book "thinking, fast and slow", Daniel, Nobel Laureate in economics.

Kahneman introduced a classic experiment:

We simply decide whether to win or lose by tossing a coin.

If the front is up, you lose me 100 dollars; if the opposite is up, you win me 150 dollars.

Are you willing to gamble? We can think about this bet.

The probability of winning and losing is 50%, so if you gamble, the expected revenue will be -100 * 50%+150 * 50%=25 yuan.

In other words, if we even bet ten thousand, you probably win 250 thousand yuan on average, very good business.

However, the problem now is to gamble only. Once you lose, you lose 100 yuan. Of course, if you win, you can win more. However, after all, you are faced with the risk of losing money.

According to the capitalist's way of thinking, this game is equivalent to your investment of 100 yuan. Its average profit margin is 25%.. How much capital will be "active" as Marx said?

Psychologists from different parts of the world have done many experiments with different groups of people, or the variant of this experiment has the same conclusion: most people do not want to take this risk.

In fact, if you want to persuade most people to agree to gamble, you must increase the return on gambling to 200 yuan.

That is to say, losing 100 yuan in people's mind is as important as winning 200 yuan.

It's also a small sum of one hundred or two hundred yuan.

Considering that psychologists generally do not have much research funding, they probably haven't made a bet of 1 million yuan for large-scale experiments, but we can imagine that people will ask for a higher level.

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People are willing to spend one or two yuan to buy lottery tickets knowing that the probability of winning a lottery is very low, but their earnings are negative. But once the stakes increase, even if the expected revenue is positive, only the desperate or capitalists are willing to play.

Today, with the rapid growth of China's economy, many people are willing to invest their money in real estate or stock market, even if they take a little risk.

But we have every reason to worry that this situation will not last for ever, because Asian nature seems to be very dislike of risk.

For example, according to Kenichi Ohmae's "low intelligence society", today's Japanese are very reluctant to take risks.

Perhaps because of the blow of the 1980s economic bubble, Japanese, especially young people, only know how to save money rather than invest.

Even if the Bank of Japan implements zero interest rates, people still save money.

It may seem to some people that the bank's zero interest rate is an insult to the people's intelligence quotient, but the Japanese know that foreign banks have higher interest rates and are unwilling to turn them out.

I have seen a few episodes of Jiangsu TV's "amazing".

There are several actors in the show claiming what they have done, and the task of the participants is to judge whether they are telling the truth.

If the judgement is correct, participants can get a reward for traveling.

The lowest grade tour is to Hongkong, the second is Phuket Island, and the more high-end includes the more expensive places to go to Europe and Dubai.

In my view, all the two contestants chose to give up the next pass and go directly to Phuket Island, and the reason was "I have been to Hongkong". In the view of these competitors, he had a reason to pass, and no need for a reason after two passes. I see that similar participants in the United States usually go forward courageously. If they do not win or lose in the end, they will rarely give up. They have never seen the two pass and take the initiative to stop.

So I think Asian Americans, including Chinese, are less adventurous than Westerners, perhaps the difference between land culture and pirate culture.

Life is faced with one.

Paradox.

If you are careful all your life and decide what you want to do and move on, your life will be worse. If you take the risk and try boldly, you may fail, but you may be very successful.

So, on average, should we be more adventurous or prudent? Assuming that everyone has a "ability value" and a "evaluation value" of their own abilities, the self assessed value of those who are overconfident is obviously greater than their actual ability.

The rule of the game in this world is that anyone can choose to compete for resources when facing a resource.

If you choose to compete, and no one is contending with you, then this resource is yours, and your evolutionary "fitness value" will increase. If you choose to fight and another person chooses to fight, then the two of you will have conflicts. r.

The result of the conflict is that everyone will lose the fitness value of C, but the person with high ability will win and increase the fitness value because of obtaining resources. That is to say, those who win in conflicts are R-C, while those who fail will lose the fitness C. in vain.

Each person is assessed according to his ability and other people around him.

The judgment (which can be different from the actual ability of others) determines whether to compete.

The whole game is designed to evolve, and those who get higher fitness will have greater survival and breeding opportunities.

The researchers conducted hundreds of thousands of simulations to see what kind of people could win in evolution.

It turns out that as long as the winning reward is bigger than the cost of conflict, that is, in the case of r/c>3/2 (it is Marx's 50% profit!), then the last one in evolution is overconfident.

The result is understandable.

The competition strategy of overconfident people is to have a jujube without dates.

If no one is contending with you, will you win it in vain? Even if someone contends, maybe they are not as good as you.

Those who are very self-conscious are still struggling to calculate the probability of loss and gain.

This model explains why there are so many beautiful women who end up in the hands of very ordinary boys.

It may also explain why China has lost to the barbarian minorities again and again in history three times.

In this way, the world belongs to the adventurous person. Its operation rule is to die of courage and fear of hunger and death.

Those who are overconfident will fail more often than ordinary people. If they die, they will die very quickly. But as long as they are not dead, as long as they are still trying, they will be more likely to succeed.