Quotation For Imported Yarn Wants To "Bottom Up" But Not Yet Hot.

At the end of October, the price of RMB bonded and customs clearance was reduced by 200-300 yuan / ton. The difference between India C21-C32S and domestic yarn expanded to 400-500 yuan / ton, and the difference of JC21-JC32S was about 600-800 yuan / ton.

The author's view is whether India's cotton producers or traders will take the opportunity to place a copy of the order.

The price is still some space from the bottom, but it is not very large. Buyers can consider that the factory price of India S-6 ginning factory is lower than 70 cents / pound after entering the market, and India Pakistan C21-C40S yarn still has 0.05-0.08 dollar / kg reduction space.

The reasons are summarized as follows:

First, India has the support of MSP and domestic consumption and export demand, and is expected to rebound again after stabilizing 68 cents / pound.

The Ministry of agriculture of the India stipulates that the price of grade CCI and long staple cotton in 2016/17 CCI is 3860 rupees / CBT, 4160 rupees / CBT, or 55-58 cents / lb, considering that the India Far East quotation is generally higher than the cost 1000-1200 points. Therefore, the quotation of 67-70 cents / lb of S-6 cotton will be the chance of China's cloth factories and middlemen to enter the market order (CNF price), and the current S-6 1-5/32 quotation is about 74.5-75 cents / lb, which is higher than the expected 4-5 cents / lb.

Two.

We have not yet stepped out of the downturn, and the "bottom" is likely to be copied on the waist.

First of all, the fall from cotton to cotton yarn generally takes about 15-20 days to digest, and it will not be immediately reflected in the quotations of yarn FOB and CNF. Secondly, the export pressure of India yarn in 9 and October is relatively large, and orders from China, Egypt, Bangladesh and other Southeast Asian countries have been significantly reduced (China's imports of printed yarn fell more than 50% in September), so the stock of the cotton mill has continued to rise and is currently in "

"State"; once again, the trend of RMB depreciation is hard to reverse.

Three, the impact of the sudden black swan event on imports in the peripheral market.

First of all, in December, the pace of the Federal Reserve raising interest rate seems to be approaching, and the impact on China's currency, exchange rate and policy is indeterminate. Secondly, how does the US presidential election end? The uncertainty of China's cotton, cotton textile industry and textile and garment exports increases. Once the export is blocked, the price of domestic yarn will probably fall, and the imported yarn will not be able to "protect itself".

On November 1 and 2 November, the CNF quotations of India, C21, J32S and J32S yarn were 2.50-2.52 US dollars / kg, 2.61-2.64 dollars / kg, 2.85-2.88 dollar / kg, C21S and C32S air-jet yarns lowered to 0.08-0.10 US dollars / kg compared with mid October, and the combed yarn such as JC21 and Tan was slightly slower, reaching US $/ kg.

At present, the import yarn market as a whole is as follows: first, the quotation of India cotton yarn is closer to the Pakistan yarn, the difference between the two is narrowed to 0.01-0.02 US dollars / kg (BB A, A+ offer or even higher than India yarn), and the competitiveness of printing yarn has rebounded completely; two, the difference between Vietnamese yarn and India yarn has widened, and export competitiveness has been weakened.

For example, the price of C32S A+ jet yarn is still up to 2.68-2.70 USD / kg, which is higher than that of the same printed yarn 0.05 USD / kg.

Mainly because Vietnam signed "futures yarn" before the end of December is very ideal, the pressure of the cotton mill sales is not large. At the same time, ICE is still in the 68-60 cents / pound box, the difference between the spot and India cotton is very large, and the cost of Vietnamese yarn raw material is at a disadvantage.