Ministry Of Commerce: Pressure On Foreign Trade Has Never Been Stable.

Since the beginning of this year, Global trade has been in the trough of nearly 30 years. The development of China's foreign trade is facing unprecedented pressure. A series of policies and measures to support the steady growth and structural adjustment of foreign trade have stimulated the vitality of import and export enterprises.

According to the report issued by the Ministry of Commerce, China's foreign trade has generally shown a good trend of stability, and the trade structure has been further optimized. In 2016, the import and export volume is expected to stabilize.

In November 2nd, the Ministry of Commerce and the international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute jointly issued the "China's foreign trade situation report (autumn 2016)" (hereinafter referred to as the "report"), that the first three quarters of 2016, China's foreign trade as a whole has stabilized to a good trend, the new development momentum of foreign trade is accumulating, and the trade structure is further optimized.

The report predicts that China's import and export will achieve a stable return in 2016.

The report points out that since the beginning of this year, Global trade has been in the trough of nearly 30 years, and the development of China's foreign trade is facing unprecedented pressure.

Data show that in the first three quarters of this year, the total value of China's imports and exports was 17 trillion and 530 billion yuan, down 1.9% from the same period in 2015.

But at the same time, China's import and export decline narrowed by quarter in the first three quarters.

In Renminbi, the import and export growth in the three quarter was 1.1%, the growth rate increased by 8.3 and 1.3 percentage points respectively over the one or two quarter.

Through the analysis of the report, three factors have contributed to the stabilization of import and export.

First, in recent years, the Chinese government has promulgated a series of policies and measures to support the steady growth of foreign trade. The policy is effective and targeted. The sustained release of policy results has effectively lightened the burden on enterprises, enhanced enterprise confidence and stimulated the vitality of import and export enterprises.

Two, since 2016, China's economy has been generally stable, Naka Yujin has been stable, China's export industry has been optimized, its international competitiveness has been continuously improved, domestic demand has rebounded, and import volume has been increased.

Three, the overall level of international commodity prices has been rising moderately during the fluctuation, and the growth of import volume has been significantly promoted.

From monthly data, imports in 8 and September have been growing for two consecutive months.

The report also stressed that during the first three quarters of the year, China's imports and exports also showed a continuous accumulation of new kinetic energy in foreign trade, and private enterprises became the main force of export and moved towards "better and better progress".

Among them, the development of general trade is better than the whole. China's foreign trade enterprises have further enhanced their ability to independently develop the international market.

At the same time, the status of private enterprises in China's foreign trade development has been further enhanced. In the first three quarters of this year, China's private enterprises exported 4 trillion and 680 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3%, accounting for 46.5% of the total export value, which exceeded the proportion of foreign investment enterprises and state-owned enterprises and became the main force of export.

In addition, the export of some high-tech products increased rapidly, and the export of material technology and aerospace technology products increased by 10% and 12.3% respectively.

In addition, imports of international commodities continued to increase and fall in the first three quarters, not only saving foreign exchange expenditure, but also helping enterprises to reduce costs and increase efficiency.

In addition, in the first three quarters of the year, China's trade in traditional markets was obviously divided.

The decrease was 3.3%, and bilateral trade between China and Europe increased by 2.7% and 2.9% respectively.

In forecasting the external trade situation for the whole year of 2016, the report thinks that the situation of low speed growth of world economy will not change in the fourth quarter, and the downward trend of Global trade is still serious.

But considering the domestic and international factors, China's import and export is expected to achieve stability after unremitting efforts.

Judging from the international situation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently estimated that the world's economic growth in the whole year was 3.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than that in 2015, and a long-term average of less than 3.7% in fifth years.

The effective demand of developed economies is slowing down, and the pace of recovery is slowing down. Trade protectionism, "reverse globalization" and populism are not only affecting short-term economic growth, but also damaging long-term potential growth rates.

Britain's continued European influence has added new uncertainties to the world economy.

From the domestic situation, the national economy in the first three quarters of the whole run smoothly, Naka Yujin, stable and upgrading quality, better than expected.

It shows that the industrial structure continues to upgrade, the demand structure continues to improve, the employment situation is better than expected, the residents' consumption is basically stable, the total price of consumer prices and the steady growth of money and credit.

Accordingly, the report analyzes and points out that the current China

The situation facing development is still complex and severe. Considering that the monthly import and export base is generally higher after September 2015, the downward pressure on imports and exports is still greater in the fourth quarter.

On the export side, the fourth quarter is the peak season for foreign trade, and exports are expected to remain stable for the better.

On the import side, the overall prices of major imports rebounded, forming a certain support for imports.

However, the import growth rate of the fourth quarter will continue to be low as a result of the continuous decline in processing trade and other factors.

On the whole, China's import and export is expected to achieve a stable return this year. The foreign trade structure will be further optimized, and the quality and efficiency of development will continue to improve.

Not long ago, Zhang Ji, Assistant Minister of Commerce, pointed out that great changes have taken place in the international environment and internal conditions of China's foreign trade development. Exports are mainly affected by the continuing downturn in the international market demand and the weakening of traditional competitive advantages. Imports are mainly affected by the decline in commodity prices and the weakening of domestic import demand dynamics.

Li Jian, a researcher at the international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with the Economic Daily reporters that China's foreign trade share in international market share does not reduce this goal. This year, it can be achieved.

At present, the decline in foreign trade denominated in Renminbi is further narrowing.

The size of our foreign trade this year is also likely to be unchanged from last year.

In looking ahead to the prospects for China's foreign trade next year, the report believes that there are many unfavorable factors, such as the fragile global economic recovery, the profound evolution of the international trade pattern, the warming up of "reverse globalization", and the deterioration of the international trade and investment environment.

From this we can see that the situation facing China's foreign trade development in 2017 is still grim and complicated, but it is also in the same position.

The pace of speeding up and the continuous pformation of new and old kinetic energy has remained unchanged for a long time.

According to the report, with the steady growth of foreign trade, the relevant policies continue to fall into force, and the process of pformation and upgrading of import and export enterprises is accelerating. In 2017, China's foreign trade accounted for the global market share and remained stable basically. The status of the import and export of large commodities continued to be consolidated, quality and efficiency continued to improve, and the trade structure continued to be optimized.

According to the report, the new situation and new requirements for foreign trade development need to focus on accelerating the cultivation of new kinetic energy in foreign trade development and promoting the pformation and upgrading of foreign trade.

When it comes to the 2017 foreign trade situation, Li Jian pointed out that the overall situation is not optimistic, but some positive factors will push foreign trade growth.

He said that there is still much work to be done to promote the stability of foreign trade. On the one hand, we must unswervingly implement the strategy of opening up to the outside world.

Through opening wider to the outside world, we should promote domestic enterprises to enhance their vitality and enhance their participation in international division of labor and competition. On the other hand, we should further optimize the structure of foreign trade commodities and the development structure of trade.

We will accelerate the pfer of some processing trade items along the coast to the mainland.

By adhering to the policy of opening to the outside world and adhering to innovation and development, we have entered a higher level of international division of labor and competition.