The Property Market In The Yangtze River Delta

August 31, the weather is fine, Jiangsu Changzhou City Center somewhere dessert shop.

"I'm afraid of the policy. The new house I want to buy has not opened yet." Liu Xi (pseudonym) and friends in the afternoon tea, brush to a Wuxi release of real estate "new regulation and control" news. Soon, out of the "new policy" of changxizhou, she was worried that she would be engaged in the new policy of real estate.

Can the house still be "fried"?

Liu Xi is a native of Changzhou. He already has a house under his name and is ready to buy a second one. A certain pre-sale license that she is interested in will be approved in the near future. Therefore, she is worried that the policy will change. If Changzhou increases the down payment for the second set of housing, the down payment that has been saved for several years may not be enough. If you want to buy it, you have to find another way to raise money.

According to the loan policy currently implemented by Changzhou provident fund center, 20% down payment is still implemented for the first house loan with an area of less than 144 square meters, and the minimum down payment of more than 144 square meters is 30%; the down payment of loans for second set of housing and above is still maintained at 40%.

Compared with other cities around Changzhou, such as Suzhou, in 2016, on the basis of 50% down payment for the second set of housing with household registration and loan, the proportion of down payment for the first set of second set of housing with household registration was adjusted to 80%. The current policy of Changzhou is obviously on the low threshold of entry.

There are traces of capital flows. In recent 10 years, Changzhou's house price has nearly tripled. After this year's epidemic, Changzhou's house prices have been on the rise. In June, the second-hand house prices rose by 0.8%, ranking 12th in China and 3rd in the province, surpassing Nanjing and Wuxi.

Since 2020, the policy of Yangtze River Delta has obviously tended to prevent and control the market rising expectation. The latest change is that in the early morning of July 23, seven departments in Nanjing jointly issued the notice on promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market in our city, issued nine new policies in the property market from the aspects of strengthening the land market regulation and strengthening the management of hot property sales, and upgrading the purchase restriction policy to clarify the divorce of husband and wife If either party purchases commercial housing within 2 years from the date of divorce, the number of housing units owned shall be calculated according to the total number of households before divorce.

On August 30, the notice of the municipal government office on further promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, further upgraded the purchase restriction policy. On the basis of the existing housing purchase restriction policy, it increased the restrictions on the number of units purchased by divorced families. It is stipulated that if a couple purchases commercial housing within two years after divorce, the number of housing units owned by the family before divorce shall be in the city Calculation of the number of housing units in the urban area. In order to meet the reasonable housing demand, we should prevent "false divorce" to obtain the house purchase qualification.

At the same time, Wuxi has also tightened the tax content and loan policy of housing transactions, and severely cracked down on the speculation of school district housing concept and bid up the price of second-hand housing.

On August 26, Changzhou participated in some urban real estate work meetings held by the Ministry of housing and urban rural development (hereinafter referred to as "the Ministry of housing and urban rural development") in Beijing. Will Changzhou come up with new policies later?

In the last week of August, the average listing price of second-hand houses in Changzhou real estate market changed from 14235 yuan to 14218 yuan, down 17 yuan, from up to down; the number of second-hand houses on sale in Changzhou in recent three weeks was 21303, 21039 and 21103, with ups and downs fluctuating.

On September 1, two days after the announcement of the new deal in Wuxi property market, Mr. and Mrs. Zhang were informed by Zhao Xiao, an intermediary, that although they were divorced, they could not buy a house by loan for the time being, because although the two properties under their names had been transferred to Mrs. Zhang's name, the new deal was based on the number of real estate before divorce. Mr. and Mrs. Zhang originally planned to buy a school district house in the name of their first house through a false divorce. Now that the house is in full, it means that the couple may have to sell a flat to make up for it.

In different cities of the Yangtze River Delta, real estate agency stores and milk tea shops have gradually settled in the blocks with high personal flow. More and more Liu Xi and Lao Zhang's husband and wife want to maintain and appreciate their assets by buying more houses, but they stop at raising the threshold of down payment. The founder of a Wuxi first-hand sales company disclosed to the 21st century economic report that not long ago, he signed a sales contract for real estate. He thought he could sell 80% of his house in two months. Now it seems that the sales volume will be halved. At present, he hopes to cooperate with financial intermediaries to help some of his prospective customers solve the problem of insufficient down payment.

When the myth of Wenzhou real estate group is no longer, the cases of real estate speculators being locked up by policies are gradually emerging.

A brief history of Hangzhou's "real estate"

In Hangzhou at the beginning of 2014, Dexin's Beihai Park sold out 210 units of houses at a discount of 15800 yuan / m2, which was equivalent to the average price of the same plate. At this time, the house price of this beautiful city near Xizi lake has been in a slump for three years. The scene of the Sales Office of Beihai Park was: on one hand, the sales staff introduced the project to the constantly coming customers before the sand table; on the other hand, the owners of previous periods were defending their rights in an orderly manner.

The housing prices in the Yangtze River Delta are fluctuating. In the middle of April 2010, the "national ten regulations" were issued, followed by the "five national regulations" and the "eight national regulations". Hangzhou followed the national property market into the most severe regulatory cycle at that time. However, with the upgrading of regulation and control, the land market in Hangzhou has suddenly warmed up, with high prices frequently appearing. From 2010 to 2012, five projects with land price over 20000 yuan / m2 appeared in Hangzhou. Hangzhou real estate market in the early 2010's showed signs of upward. In 2015, the high-priced land obtained by the real estate enterprises such as Zhonghai, Binjiang and Rongxin was sold at a loss or slowly reduced in 2015.

Until 2016, Hangzhou property market began to soar. Since the G20 summit was held, the net inflow of population in Hangzhou from 2017 to 2019 was 280000, 350000 and 500000, respectively, lasting for three consecutive years. In addition to the urban upgrading expectation before the Asian Games, the turnover of new houses in Hangzhou exceeded the 200000 mark for the first time in 2016, with a turnover of 359.7 billion yuan, and the turnover of more than 10000 units in 10 consecutive months and the land sales of 157.35 billion yuan. Since 2017, it has sold more than 200 billion yuan of land for three consecutive years. This also lays the groundwork for Hangzhou's abundant market supply.

With the adjustment of Hangzhou's new multi center pattern, Hangzhou's property market has also ushered in an outbreak period. On the other hand, from the second half of 2016 to 2017, Hangzhou also ushered in the intensive introduction of regulatory policies.

Since September 27, 2016, Hangzhou has "launched three arrows at once" to maintain the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market. Since September 28, the down payment ratio of the second set of housing with provident fund loan, the down payment proportion of commercial housing loan for second set of housing and the suspension of house purchase and household registration have been increased. In November 2016, Hangzhou upgraded the purchase restriction, expanded the scope of the purchase restriction and upgraded the purchase restriction measures. When foreigners buy a house, they need to provide more than one year's social security or personal income tax certificate, and they can't buy a house by way of supplementary payment.

In this year, the core cities of the Yangtze River Delta, such as Shanghai, Suzhou, Nanjing, Hefei, etc., have intensively introduced purchase and loan restriction policies, with great efforts; sub centers of the Yangtze River Delta such as Jiaxing, Wuxi, Ningbo, Yangzhou, Changzhou, and cities around Shanghai, followed by intensive and strict policies on purchase and sales restriction in 2017; and Jiangsu and Zhejiang node cities such as Taizhou, Shaoxing, Taizhou, Nantong, Zhenjiang, Chuzhou, etc However, the overall market environment is relatively loose.

In March 2017, Hangzhou issued a new land policy to limit the high land price and push up the real estate market. It is clearly stipulated that when the premium rate reaches 50%, the commercial houses built on the plot must be sold after obtaining the real estate registration certificate (for sale of existing houses); when the premium rate reaches 70%, lock the price limit and transfer to the bidding self holding proportion; when two or more bidders bid for 100% of the self owned area, they are transferred to the bidding The procedures for the construction of facilities for the aged.

Since then, the sale of single property in Hangzhou has been restricted.

Although the government's policies were tightened step by step in 2017, housing prices in Hangzhou still showed an upward trend, and ordinary wage earners lamented that it was difficult to buy a house. Why? On March 12, 2017, a netizen asked on Zhihu: is the housing price in Hangzhou high? Another netizen replied: "a region or city population continues to net inflow, with a simple reason is that the supply of houses will become less than the demand of goods, then the price will naturally rise. In addition, the purchasing power of RMB is declining, so it can be said that the effect of 1 + 1 > 2 has been produced

Since 2016, Hangzhou's housing prices have skyrocketed from more than 20000 yuan / m2 to 2020, and there is no correction. Compared with Beijing and Shanghai, Hangzhou's house price in 2016 is the price of cabbage for investors. In this year, Hangzhou's net inflow of population increased by 8.9%, ranking first in the country. In the same year, Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou accounted for 3.43%, 2.02% and - 0.69% respectively, ranking 5th, 9th and 20th respectively.

The influx of population, China's leading Internet base, relocated households entering the city, and the vision of speeding up urban transformation before the Asian Games all contributed to the soaring housing prices in Hangzhou. In June 2019, the new policy of "double limit" local auction in Hangzhou came out, and the price of new houses has been locked since the land is sold. This has led to the emergence of multiple first-hand and second-hand inverted housing, and the emergence of 10000 people shaking real estate.

This year, Hangzhou has issued relevant policies to reduce the fever of the expected rising property market. On July 3, Hangzhou issued the notice on further clarifying the relevant requirements for notarization, lottery and public sale of commercial housing, one of which is "to specify that the newly-built commercial housing purchased by families with high-level talents in this city shall not be listed for trading within 5 years from the date of online signing of houses".

Before and after the Hangzhou policy was introduced, Nanjing, Ningbo and other countries have also issued adjustment and upgrading policies to prevent the property market from entering a new round of soaring.

A new round of fine regulation and control in the Yangtze River Delta has opened.

"Thoughtful" City

On April, the municipal government issued a notice on further improving the healthy development of the real estate market, such as the "land purchase policy" and the "no limit for real estate development" issued by the municipal government on April. There is no tendency for households to tighten their housing demand while investing.

After the sales restriction is upgraded, the number of first-hand and second-hand "red plates" in Hangzhou will be less and less, and investors will be gradually squeezed out of the market. According to the data of Qianjiang Evening News house purchase treasure, at present, the saleable building area of the residential parts in Hangzhou urban area is as high as 14.17 million square meters, which means that according to the average value of 118 square meters / set, these pure new buildings that will enter the market will bring about 120000 sets of residential houses Source. In 2019, Hangzhou will sell 104000 units of housing. Based on this, these reserved houses can be sold for 14 months. In addition, there are still a large number of houses available for sale in the market. At present, there are nearly 40000 commercial residential units available in the urban area of Hangzhou. In view of the sufficient potential supply, this year's housing inventory will increase steadily.

In fact, the Hangzhou government has a package of policy reserves. When and how it will be introduced has been carefully considered. Obviously, Hangzhou's new deal, in addition to "patching up" the purchase restriction and lottery number policy, is more inclined to fine-grained regulation and control and prevent the occurrence of trouble. The 21st century economic report insiders have learned that Hangzhou's housing price rise in August may be in the range of 4.6% - 4.9%, which is a little close to the ceiling where the rumored price rise should not exceed 5%. It is reasonable to upgrade regulation.

In addition, there are market rumors that Hangzhou has recently restricted the issuance of pre-sale permits of more than 35000 yuan per square meter. However, according to the partial pre-sale certificates issued in August, there are still several real estate projects with 35000 yuan / m2 in Xiaoshan, Jianggan and Lin'an districts, with the highest average price of about 47000 yuan / m2 in Jianggan District. The average price of 78 Suites in Huigang city (Park 1872) is 42300 yuan / m2.

It is worth noting that the new policy of "five years of sales restriction" is the first time in Hangzhou, but it is only aimed at buyers within the specified scope, which shows that Hangzhou has reserved space for traffic while controlling the market heat.

This should be combined with the unique market characteristics of Hangzhou. The land market in Hangzhou started "double limit" in June 2019. Therefore, the profit of a plot can be calculated in advance. The real estate enterprises buy more land in Hangzhou, not to earn profits, but to earn the flow scale. After the entire property market turns around, the real estate enterprises can guarantee financing. Especially recently, the financial regulatory authorities have issued the "three red lines" rule, The demand of real estate enterprises in financing end is more urgent.

Hangzhou real estate enterprises play different ways in Hangzhou market, market differentiation is also very obvious. Although the profit target of big real estate enterprises like Zhonghai has been reduced from 15% to 7% - 8%, there are still some real estate enterprises with high turnover and earning flow such as Binjiang in Hangzhou. Therefore, the critical point of regulation and control of Hangzhou real estate market is far from reaching.

It is true that the red plate has a great boosting effect on the market. How to regulate the market heat and flow balance needs to be carefully considered by the Hangzhou government. The policy has also made a big adjustment for the red plate. Industry insiders predict that in order to ensure that the government does not shake the number of people, it is likely to issue several red plate pre-sale certificates for hedging at the same time. Zhang Huifang, general manager of Hangzhou win-win organization, commented that Hangzhou's New Deal "contains a needle in a long way, and precise regulation and control". The market will be a little colder, but not particularly cold.

"Slow whisper" control

2020 is the year when the policies of the property market in the Yangtze River Delta are issued intensively, which also reflects the delicacy of government control, which is quite characteristic of Jiangnan. Taking Hangzhou as an example, according to the market conditions, Hangzhou relaxed the restrictions on the pre-sale of new houses in March this year, and the policy ended on May 31. During the implementation of the new policy, the pre-sale threshold was lowered, some projects were sold ahead of time, and the cash flow of enterprises was alleviated. In April, Hangzhou issued a preferential purchase policy for talents. In July, Hangzhou issued policies to further refine the policies of purchase restriction, sales restriction and lottery.

Since this year, 30 cities, including Nanjing, Suzhou and Hangzhou, have relaxed settlement policies and increased subsidies for renting houses and starting businesses.

On August 16, Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, pointed out in an article in Qiushi that the real estate bubble is the biggest "grey rhinoceros" threatening financial security. In recent years, various regions and departments have optimized the allocation of financial resources in accordance with the spirit of "no speculation on housing and housing" and "one city, one policy", and strictly prevent illegal capital flowing into the real estate market.

On August 20, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development and the people's Bank of China held a forum on key real estate enterprises in Beijing, forming rules for capital monitoring and financing management of key real estate enterprises. The financial regulators set up "three red lines" on the financing of real estate enterprises, which increased the financing pressure of real estate enterprises.

On August 24, Hefei Yangtze River Delta integration forum, once again released the "housing does not fry" signal.

On August 26, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development and the people's Bank of China held a forum on key real estate enterprises in Beijing, forming rules for capital monitoring and financing management of key real estate enterprises.

The fine regulation and control also shows that the local government implements policies to promote the smooth operation of the regional market. For example, on August 18, Nanjing issued a new deal of land auction. The specific contents include: lottery directly on the spot after the land price reaches the top, no more bidding for talent houses; strict development qualification examination; raising the requirement of bidding funds; limiting the number of plots to be bid by the same subject.

The layout and regulation of real estate enterprises are inseparable. Among the real estate enterprises in Ningbo this year, Rong'an, Baolong, Vanke, Lvcheng, Binjiang and Dexin have taken at least three pieces of land. Among these real estate enterprises, only Rong'an is slightly less well-known. On the official website of Rong'an, it calls itself "the first real estate listed company in Ningbo and the first listed company on Shenzhen Stock Exchange in eastern China. It takes root in Ningbo, delves deeply in the Yangtze River Delta and carries out a national strategy Layout, China's top 100 real estate development enterprises, with hundreds of high-quality projects.

In Ningbo, Vanke will occupy the top position in terms of sales volume and trading amount in 2019. In 2020, green city will begin to change this pattern. In the first half of this year, the sales volume of green city reached 11 billion, which has surpassed Vanke as the champion in half a year.

Is Ningbo Vanke passively reducing its market share? One fact is that in July, Ningbo upgraded its regulation and control, and proposed measures to reduce market heat, such as increasing land supply, strictly checking and approving the sales price of commercial housing on the newly transferred land, and strictly controlling the land price of floor. Subsequently, the property market in Ningbo cooled down, the premium rate of land auction declined, the demand side shrank, and the inventory of first-hand and second-hand houses rose, and the situation of oversupply soon appeared.

In the second half of the year, Wuxi and Nantong are among the key cities in the Yangtze River Delta that are "inclusive but not yet developed" but may issue new policies.

Wang Feng, a senior analyst at Tongce Research Institute, believes that the current policy is still to check and make up for deficiencies, and the real estate market is still expected to be stable at present: firstly, the trend of the market demand subject to the improvement type demand is obvious, and the boundary between self housing and investment is not too clear, and it is more bearable than that of the rigid demand group, and the financial risk is relatively small; secondly, the local government should pay more attention to it Economic recovery needs to rely on the growth of real estate development investment. If the real estate market is heated up, it will be very difficult for future developers to implement the "anti expectation" tightening policy. From the point of view of individual cities, the recent tightening of Wuxi regulation policy is mainly due to the early appearance of Diwang, and the rise of individual plates is too fierce. However, from the perspective of overall development, the possibility of severe policies in the back cities is not high. Most of them are to check and make up for deficiencies. In 2016, it was already very strict, and there is not much room for further tightening.

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