Is It A Flash In The Pan When The Price Of Ethylene Glycol Rises Slightly?

Since entering 2019, the market price of ethylene glycol has been fluctuating at 5150 yuan / ton. On the 15 day, the domestic spot market negotiation is even higher than this mean.

Supply side:

Entering the year 2019, the start of ethylene glycol plant changed little. As of 15 days, the domestic ethylene glycol glycol plant operation rate was 81%, the coal glycol unit operation rate was 61%, and the supply was relatively stable; the MEG port in East China's main port area was about 834 thousand tons, which increased by 49 thousand tons compared with the previous period; the East China port is expected to arrive at 188 thousand tons this week, and port inventory is expected to rise.

Demand side:

Downstream production and sales rates continue to fall, polyester staple fiber and polyester chip production and sales rate fell to about 40%, entering the middle of January, polyester enterprises have increased production scheduling, closing 15 days will have about 2 million 250 thousand tons of capacity to stop, the eve of the Spring Festival glycol demand is not optimistic.

Message side:

The latest figures released by China Customs show that China's import and export growth slowed down in December. Domestic Sinopec ethylene glycol listing 5600 yuan / ton unchanged, the recent low market prices, downstream polyester, weaving low price and low inventory, and there is a certain demand for replenishment, half light chip discussion mainstream around 7700-7800 yuan / ton, glossy slice consultation reference at 7700-7800 yuan /.

Main position:

As of January 15th, the first twenty positions announced by the Dalian mercantile exchange show that the EG1906 contract has increased by 2498 to 74059 hands, and the selling position has increased by 5713 to 83243 hands. The net position is 9184 hands for the selling list, which has increased 2097 hands compared with the previous trading day. (recommendation: EG1906 early empty sheet to continue to hold, price effective breakthrough 5300 yuan / ton stop loss)

Conclusion: there is a certain demand for rigid replenishment for low price and low inventory in the lower reaches of the market. While the domestic glycol supply is stable, the port stock began to rise, the downstream polyester plant began to repair, supply and demand is still weak situation, market pessimism still exist, the ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a weak pattern of shock.