More Than 2 Trillion Of The Funds Expired, The Central Bank Monetary Policy Has Moderately Shifted Trend.

Before the Spring Festival holiday, the rise of MLF's interest rate raised the market's concern.

However, with the rise of SLF and reverse repo rate, in fact, the market has further aggravated the panic of the market. The market expects that the central bank's monetary policy has moderately shifted.

Perhaps, for the recent series of moves by the central bank, it is intended to release some signals to the market, and for the market parties concerned, it is still paying close attention to the subsequent interest rate increase actions of the central bank, which will directly bring about a substantial impact on the property market, stock market and bond market.

In fact, after the Spring Festival holiday, the pressure of returning funds from the open market has also attracted the attention of the market.

The reason is that, according to the relevant data, the funds expiring within the month may reach more than 2 trillion, and the heavy pressure of capital withdrawal will bring additional impact to the already weak Chinese stock market.

It is worth mentioning that for the recent successive actions of the central bank, the interest rates of short end and long end have been adjusted successively, and for the time being, the operation of the open market has been suspended for two consecutive days, which is especially sensitive to the psychological burden of the market.

However, from the analysis of this series of phenomena,

Recent moves have further strengthened the determination of financial deleveraging, which also confirms the previous focus on "restraining asset bubbles".

At the same time, in view of the successive initiatives, the market also gives more or less the signal of the central bank or the easing of inflection points, and then comes the neutral tight monetary expectation. From the past years, the tightening of monetary policy has a direct impact on the real performance of the property market, stock market and bond market.

As for the external uncertain environment, combined with the Federal Reserve's three interest rate hikes during the year, the central bank's action may be prepared ahead of schedule.

However, it should be noted that in the near future, the short end long interest rate rise has not directly affected the deposit and loan area, but has also affected the money market between banks and other financial institutions. It is not a real interest rate increase. The impact on the stock market and the property market has been exaggerated by the market.

"Cheng also funds, also lose money", this is China.

The true portrayal of this situation also shows that China's stock market is inseparable from the nature of capital as a driving force.

Thus, in the face of the expiration of more than 2 trillion funds, the pressure of market capital withdrawal is too large, and the follow-up without continuous and effective hedging will bring some liquidity impact to the stock market.

Last Friday, the volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities reached a new low since the stock market crash. The two cities only recorded more than 2400 billion turnover.

Perhaps, facing the extreme level of the market last Friday, it may still be closely related to the strong mood of the festival. But only one trading day last week, the enthusiasm of the market participation is not high, which directly leads to the extreme atrophy of the market capacity.

But from Monday's stock market

It can be seen that although the volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen markets can pick up, it is still below the level of 350 billion yuan.

As a result, in the context of the stock capital game environment, with the continued decline in the attractiveness of the stock market, coupled with the continuous increase in the pressure of capital withdrawal, the market wait-and-see sentiment will continue to be weak, and the possibility of big ups and downs in the stock market in the short term will also suddenly decline.

Maintaining the "stable" pattern of the stock market and meeting the goal of deleveraging in financial markets may be an important task for the market during the year.

At this stage of China's stock market, under the circumstance that monetary policy has not been much improved, there is still no high expectation.

At the same time, under the influence of uncertain external environment and other factors, China's stock market has also experienced many tests this year.

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