The Central Bank Of China Did Not Idle In The Traditional Way To Raise Interest Rates In The Spring Festival.

From last year to this year, the property market policy is obviously maintaining stability, lowering the high price property market and supporting the unpopular city. Without accident, this year real estate will keep pace with the stock market, the index is stable, and the market heat will drop. Don't forget that the central bank is not using the means of raising interest rates. Instead of depositors, it is the central bank. If the situation is out of control, the central bank will immediately use the means of increasing reverse repurchase and lowering interest rates.

From the previous year's stock market crash and last year's eleven tightening of real estate, the mirage of the stock market and the property market has been shattered. On February 3rd, the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the central bank raised the open market operating interest rate. The 7 day, 14 day, and 28 day reverse repo rate rose 10 BP compared with the previous period. According to Reuters, citing sources, the central bank also raised the rate of standing loan facility (SLF) on the same day. Overnight varieties raised 35BP to 3.1%, and SLF increased 10 BP to 3.35% and 3.70% respectively in 7 days and 1 months.

On the first day of the festival, the central bank did not celebrate the Spring Festival. "The earth does not explode, we do not have a holiday, the universe does not restart, we do not rest." Before the holiday, it was not idle. In January 24th, the winning rates of MLF6 and 1 years in 22 financial institutions increased by 10 basis points over the previous period, the first increase since the establishment of MLF in 2014.

Many people think that in order to squeeze asset bubbles, it is impossible for the central bank to go mad to break the bubble and let the market collapse. The only reason for the central bank to do so is to let the genuine gold and silver enter the market and consolidate the foundation before the high leverage Ponzi scheme is out of control, so that the market can gradually return to the right track when the collapse risk of the stock market, the real estate market and the bond market can be controlled.

The central bank's disguised interest rate increase will not suppress the real economy. Most of the real enterprises could not get the cheap money from banks. Now a real estate enterprise financing from the private sector, the final interest rate is at least 10%, and the cost of capital is increased by 10 to 20 basis points. What is the matter with these enterprises? Only large enterprises and local governments that can borrow enough cheap money, the powerful enterprises that have the power to get cheap money, and highly leveraged investors will be afraid of these dozens of basic points.

On the face of it, the central bank raises interest rates to take state capital. In fact, the central bank has hedging means. The bond bear market is a foregone conclusion. In February 3rd, black futures closed a collective drop, of which the main heat volume dropped by over 7%, while the screw fell by over 6%. Iron ore and coke fell more than 5%, coking coal fell over 4%, and rubber fell nearly 4%. The rise in bond yields is bad for the government. The black line is plummeting, and resource companies are shouting.

But the government has hedging means. National debt The drop will allow institutions to take up the market and maintain oil and coal prices by continuing to reduce production capacity. In 2016, we went to production capacity and went stock for a small test. The price of coke and coking coal futures increased by more than 200% during the year. The price of steam coal and steel doubled, and the price of Chinese cabbage changed from the price of cabbage to the price of seafood. The recent PMI index has proved that raw material companies are not unhappy, and the weak dollar policy of trump students has led to less serious outflow of funds, which provides room for the central bank to tighten the money.

The central bank tightens the money, which is forcing the radical commercial banks and dignitaries to be honest. These banks carry out short-term interbank borrowing on a large scale and are keen to make quick money. The money flows to the powerful financial bigwigs like floods. Now that the rules are changed, the less energy investors will step into the mud pit.

Tightening money is certainly not conducive to the property market and stock market, but Central Bank For the stock market, capital replacement is used to replace the bank's capital with genuine gold and silver, so as to keep the market stable. Trading volume during the Spring Festival shows that the property market has entered a cold winter in some areas, but this is not the credit of the central bank, but the credit policy of last year's property market.

Haitong Securities macro team published research report that housing loans rose, the property market snow. By the end of 9 2016, the average interest rate of bank housing loans was 4.52%, and the interest rate of the 10 year government bonds was only 3.13%. According to the current 4.1% national debt interest rate, from the historical data comparison, the reasonable mortgage interest rate should be around 5.5%, and the interest rate 100bp.5.5% higher than the current level can borrow more than ten years' money. The dream will have to laugh. The rising interest rate of mortgage loans is much higher than that of the first down payment, and the increase of the down payment ratio directly cuts off the real estate engine.

On the one hand, the government relies on capacity and pension to support the market. On the other hand, it resolutely suppressed the leveraged bull market in the first half of 2015 and suppressed the stock market's empty handed white wolf. This year, it will also inhibit cash flow, mainly in order to make Ponzi fraud not out of control. It is thought that the central bank will raise interest rates in disguised form. equity market The collapse of the property market is a dream. While the market is stable, we should gradually change the rules of the game, reduce the leverage of financial institutions, and let the private wealth directly enter the capital and money market. This is the essence of this currency reform.

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