Market Dynamics: Analysis Of National Cotton Market Monitoring Data

The weekly crop growth report shows that as of the week of July 21, the excellent cotton rate in the United States was 53%, 45% the previous week and 46% the same period last year. The bell setting rate was 42%, and the previous week was 27%, compared with 34% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 34%. The budding rate was 81%, 64% the previous week, 74% the same period last year, and the five-year average was 76%.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system, as of July 20, 2024, the national lint processing rate is 99.9%; The national sales rate was 86.4%, 98.8% in the same period last year.

According to the estimated domestic cotton output of 5.903 million tons, as of July 20, 5.903 million tons of seed cotton had been sold, which was -816000 tons on a year-on-year basis; Accumulated processed lint 5.901 million tons, -81.8 million tons on a year-on-year basis; The cumulative sales of lint reached 5.1 million tons, up from 6.637 million tons in the same period last year.

USDA: As of the week of July 11, the net export sales of upland cotton in the United States in 23/24 were 27000 bales, compared with 54000 bales the previous week; 24/25 The annual net sales of upland cotton was 166000 bales, 69000 bales in the previous week; The export shipment of upland cotton in 23/24 was 113000 bales, 161000 bales in the previous week; 23/24 The annual net sales of upland cotton to China was 6000 bales, 16000 bales in the previous week; In 24/25, the net sales of upland cotton to China was 32000 bales, compared with - 22000 bales in the previous week; 23/24 The annual sales of upland cotton to China totaled 5.299 million bales, compared with 5.293 million bales the previous week; In 23/24, 34000 bales were shipped to China for export of upland cotton, 65000 bales in the previous week; 23/24 The annual total shipment of upland cotton to China was 4.414 million bales, 4.379 million bales the previous week; In 23/24, 885000 bales of upland cotton were not shipped to China, 91.4 bales in the previous week 10000 packages; There were 221000 bales of upland cotton not shipped to China in 24/25, compared with 189000 bales in the previous week.

In terms of inventory, according to Mysteel, as of July 19, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 2.5706 million tons, 113800 tons less than last week. Including commodity cotton in Xinjiang 1543200 tons, 78400 tons less around. 472400 tons of commodity cotton were produced in the mainland, a decrease of 21900 tons compared with the previous year.

As of July 18, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 2.4% on a weekly basis, with a total inventory of 555000 tons. Among them, the inventory of imported cotton in Qingdao, Jinan ports and surrounding warehouses in Shandong is about 46.7 10000 tons, 2.7% lower than the previous month, and 117% higher than the previous year's inventory; The inventory of imported cotton at Zhangjiagang Port and surrounding warehouses in Jiangsu Province is about 50000 tons, and the inventory at other ports is about 38000 tons.

In the downstream, as of the week of July 19, the yarn inventory days of the yarn mill were 29.1 days, and the month on month ratio was - 0.2 days; The start-up rate was 71.4%, which was flat on a month on month basis; The number of days of cotton stored in textile enterprises is 29.5 Days, - 0.3 days month on month.

In terms of textiles, as of the week of July 19, the operating rate of downstream textile mills was 39.5%, which was flat month on month. The number of days of grey cloth inventory was 28.56 days, and the previous value was 27.72 days.

As of July 19, the order days of textile enterprises were 9.76 days, compared with 10.26 days before.