Polyester Industry's Profit Decreased By 37% In The First Half Of The Year.

The trend of polyester filament this year can be described by "weird". The traditional peak season seems to have been gradually abandoned, and the market situation of "light season is not light and busy season is not booming" is a bit of a puzzle.

Over the past year, the price of polyester filament market has fallen sharply.

However, we must pay attention to that, after entering the three quarter, the rebound height of polyester filament under the action of raw materials is still limited. With the gradual decline of the upstream and downstream resonance power, the fatigue gradually appears. Nowadays, the price of polyester filament is almost at the lowest level in the year, of which POY 150D has fallen below the eight thousand mark, and DTY products are not only below 10000 yuan, but also close to the nine thousand pass.

However, the peak season of traditional textile market has arrived, the order of downstream weaving market has increased significantly, and the comprehensive boot rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has risen 78%. Orders, proofing and enquiry enthusiasm are better than the previous stage, especially for jet loom orders.

The production and sales of filaments have also picked up recently. The average production and sales rate in August was 83%, basically the same as that of the same period last year. On the contrary, the average production and sales rate in July was only 55%.

Why can't the polyester filament get rid of the low price mire?

High start-up + high inventory raw material difficult to have a decent rebound support

Since entering August, the domestic PTA market has maintained a pattern of shock and consolidation. From the start up rate, the current PTA operating rate is maintained at 88.24%, which is at a high level in the year. Therefore, the overall supply performance is adequate, and PTA continues to accumulate library rhythm.

Entering the August, the domestic PTA market maintained a shock consolidation pattern. The PTA factory maintenance device was relatively small, and the operating rate remained at a high level. Although the demand for polyester in the lower reaches had been restored, the procurement situation was generally low, and the market still lacks substantial demand. During the month, PTA social stocks continued to accumulate.

Up to now, PTA stocks remain at a high level of 1 million 140 thousand tons. A substantial increase over the same period last year.

In the face of PTA high start-up and high inventory, PTA market is unlikely to have a decent rebound in the short term, and it will have a larger upward resistance to polyester filament.

Caution and wait-and-see sentiment are still dominant, while the downstream weaving Market is at a good stage, but is not interested in raw material procurement.

In the first two years, as long as the market has seen a bit of trouble, textile people, whether they are WeChat friends circle, or all kinds of textile WeChat group and QQ exchange group, are filled with various kinds of information about price rise and post market positive.

Chemical fiber salesmen also exposed the information on the price of polyester raw materials, and from time to time broadcast the shipping situation and the intention to close the plate, and encouraged and stimulated the downstream weaving manufacturers or traders to "hoard the price of goods".

But this year, whether it is chemical fiber traders or downstream weaving manufacturers, it seems to see through the raw materials manufacturers' "routine", a short good stimulus, there are only one or two hot days of sales, it is difficult to have the kind of buying and selling.

The reason for this is that on the one hand, the large scale production of looms outside this year has led to overcapacity in the textile market, especially the pressure on the stock of conventional products, while the backlog of manufacturers' funds has been overstocked, and the stock of raw materials has become more cautious. Coupled with the volatility of Sino US trade, the textile market has been stimulating, and the recent Sino US trade frictions have escalated and market confidence has been suppressed. It can be said that the weaving Market is increasingly "not interested" in the procurement of raw materials.

In the first half of the year, the profit decreased by 37.7% over 930 thousand tons and the new production is expected. Since the beginning of this year, the market supply of polyester filament has been increasing.

According to statistics, the total production capacity of melt direct spinning polyester filament is 30 million 92 thousand tons, and the polyester filament production capacity increased by 1 million 730 thousand tons in 2019. In addition, Warburg 100 thousand, Heng Yi 250 thousand, new Feng Ming 280 thousand, and Tong Kun 30 million new capacity will also be put into operation in 9-12 months.

It is understood that 7-8 months, polyester filament total production capacity of nearly 1 million 200 thousand tons, by the end of August, the new devices have been normal operation and export shipments. In addition, by the end of August, the operation rate of polyester filament factory has increased steadily to more than 94%, so the market supply of polyester filament has increased rapidly.

The National Bureau of statistics data show that: 1~6 months, the main business income of chemical fiber industry was 428 billion 700 million yuan, an increase of 7.1% over the same period last year, and realized a total profit of 13 billion 300 million yuan, a decrease of 23% compared with the same period last year. The industry's deficit reached 26.52%, an increase of 4.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the deficit of loss making enterprises increased by 71.5%.

According to the industry, the total profit of the polyester industry is 5 billion 840 million yuan, a decrease of 37.7% compared with the same period last year. With the increasing supply and the reduction of factory efficiency, there is no pressure on the stock of polyester filament at present, and the cash flow is optimistic. (source: Grand information, Jin Lianchuang)