Forecast Of Cotton Price Trend In 2019: Room For Substantial Increase In The Second Half Year

According to the voice of rural China, "three rural China" reported that cotton is an important cash crop in China.

Looking back in 2018, cotton prices experienced large fluctuations, regardless of the ups and downs, which affected the hearts of growers and sellers.

Then, where will the cotton price market go in 2019?

2018 is the year when cotton prices fluctuate. This year, cotton prices in China rose sharply and continued to fall. Although the cotton farmers' income has been guaranteed, the roller coaster market still worried about the trend of domestic cotton prices in 2019.

Wang Shutong, an information analyst at Zhuo Chuang, believes that because of the favorable policies, the cotton farmers' income will be protected in 2019.

And cotton prices should rise sharply in the second half of 2019.

Wang Shutong: as a whole, the trend of cotton price fluctuation in 2018 is huge, which is mainly reflected in two stages: the first stage is 5-6 months, due to the promotion of weather and speculation, Zheng cotton futures began to soar in May 16th, thus driving the spot price of cotton to rise rapidly, rising from 15600 yuan per ton in mid 5 to 16570 yuan / ton in June 5th, or 6.2%.

The second stage is that cotton prices began to keep falling in October, down from 16100 yuan / ton in early October to 15600 yuan / ton at the end of December, or 3.1%.

On the macro environment, in 2019, China will adopt a large-scale tax reduction and reduction policy and a proactive fiscal policy to stimulate domestic demand growth, and in 2019, it will face the adjustment of the state reserve cotton inventory.

The above positive factors will be reflected in the first half of 2019.

So it is expected that the cotton spot price in the first half of 2019 is narrow, or at 15500-16200 yuan / ton.

In the second half of this year, prices rose sharply and reached a high point of 17000 yuan / ton.