There Will Be A Marked Rise In The Rate Of Commencement Of The Industry. PTA Will Reverse The Weak Pattern.

At the beginning of May, following the recovery of crude oil prices, PTA futures ushered in a slight rise. In the middle and last ten days, oil prices dropped sharply, and PTA showed a marked decline. In June 1st, the price of the futures price hit a new low this year.

Although PTA has rebounded this week, I still have doubts about whether the trend of PTA6 months can get rid of the weak pattern.

In June 2017, the negotiations on PX ACP (Asian contract price) ended without any result. The final negotiating range of the trading set remained at 790 to 810 US dollars / ton CFR, which was 27 to 7 US dollars / ton CFR compared with May Taiwan PX average monthly price.

In June, the ACP negotiations failed to achieve. On the one hand, in the background of the weak oil price, the market kept a partial expectation of the PX price trend. On the other hand, the PX market supply and demand loosely also had a certain pressure on the price.

With regard to crude oil prices, the trend of oil prices is not matched with supply and demand changes since the end of May.

There is a contradiction between the reduction of OPEC production and the increase in US production. The pressure on the supply of crude oil remains, but the demand is more optimistic. The consumption of oil products in the US, China, India and the Middle East is in an upward cycle, and the stock of crude oil is also in the process of continuous improvement.

Therefore, before the oil price returns to supply and demand, market sentiment will still be the recent leading factor. Whether the short-term oil price can stabilize or stabilize is related to the change of PTA cost line.

PX supply and demand, 2017 1-4 PX supply and demand data show that the domestic PX overall supply is adequate.

This year, the domestic PX plant operating rate has risen, and the output has also shown a good performance over the same period.

The first 4 months, the domestic

Output totaled 3 million 570 thousand tons, an increase of 15.57% over the same period, while the total volume of imports during the same period was 4 million 553 thousand and 100 tons, up 11.31% over the same period last year.

According to the calculation of PTA production, the demand for PX in 1-4 months is about 7 million 720 thousand tons, so the total supply of PX is still surplus.

In May, the domestic PX utilization rate was 71.69%. According to the PX capacity base 13 million 920 thousand tons, the domestic output was about 830 thousand tons, basically unchanged from the output of 846 thousand tons in April, and domestic supply will maintain a relatively good growth trend over the same period last year.

In June, the PX season was overhauled.

The influence will gradually decline, and the operating rate of the industry will rise significantly.

Therefore, the supply of PX will continue to be sufficient.

Cottonseed meal prices in most parts of the country are mostly stable, and local prices continue to fall.

At present, the quantity of soybeans coming to Hong Kong is huge, the stock of coastal soybean meal is increasing, the strength of soybean meal spot rebounding is limited, the price of the cottonseed meal market is lower, and the price difference between the cottonseed meal and soybean meal is small, and the terminal demand is generally. Buyers' willingness to purchase cottonseed meal is not high, and the overall turnover is still slack, so that the price of cotton pulp price falls down on the same day.

Most of the domestic cotton lint prices have not been reported, and some manufacturers' quotations remain stable.

Due to the high cost and limited supply of goods, cotton lint prices remain stable for the time being.

However, this year, the EPA strengthened the environmental supervision, which affected the operating rate of the refinery. The manufacturers were cautious in purchasing cotton lint, and the market wait-and-see sentiment was strong.

The whole will still be stable and weak.

At present, the spot price of PX:CFR in Taiwan remains near $800 per ton. If crude oil prices keep near $50, the price of PX will not rise or fall.

Affected by this, PTA cost support may move downward.

In the calculation of PX790 US dollars / ton, the cost of PTA production is near 4270 yuan / ton, calculated at the closing price of PTA in June 2nd, the disk profit is 459 yuan / ton, and the spot profit is around 380 yuan / ton.

There is still room for the compression of PTA disk profits.

Therefore, in the short term, at the cost side price is weak, as well as the basic lack of bright spots, PTA still has the possibility of continuing to find the bottom.

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