The Fed'S Interest Rate Hike Is Expected To Cool. The US Dollar Index Continues To Be Weak.

Since the US missile attack on Syria last week, its movements have been frequent. The geopolitical situation in Afghanistan and other regions has been upgraded again. The risk assets such as spot gold and yen have been sought after by investors, and have hit nearly five months high in the early morning of Asian market.

Before Trump once again fired on the dollar, coupled with the US "terrorist data" CPI's unexpected cold, the dollar index continued to be weak.

Last Friday (April 14th), the US CPI in March recorded the worst performance in more than a year, but most traders took a holiday and the gold was closed. The influence of the data was fermented on Monday.

It is not as strong as soft data shows, and the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to cool, so the US dollar is still under pressure.

According to specific data, the US CPI recorded an annual rate of 2.4% in March, less than the expected 2.6%, while the core CPI annual rate also dropped to 2%, which is expected to rise from 2.2% to 2.3%.

Analysts believe that the poor data show that the rise in inflation in the United States again blocked, but also for the Fed's interest rate hike in the future set up a "roadblock".

At the same time, when Trump changed his face to suppress the US dollar, the weak inflation data increased the uncertainty for the future market trend.

Jonathan Loynes, an analyst at Capital Economics, said in a report that US President Trump would be very difficult if he wanted to lower the US dollar.

Loynes points out that Trump is constrained by his ability to limit the appreciation of the dollar.

However, some analysts pointed out that one option for Trump to weaken the US dollar is to delay its financial plan.

Some analysts pointed out that if there is any possibility of limiting the strength of the US dollar, then the global economy may be stronger because it will make other countries face pressure to raise interest rates and narrow the policy gap with the Fed, thereby weakening the relative attractiveness of the US dollar.

After a two week rise, it fell by about 0.65% last week. Huitong net quoted Brown brothers Haleman as saying that in the next few days, the US dollar index will continue to decline under the conditions of deteriorating technological conditions.

The initial supporting position is located at 99.80-100.00, which is 99 below the target, which is the starting point for the recent rise and the 200 day moving average.

In addition, gold and yen hit a five month high in early trading, as some traders returned to the market and risk aversion continued to heat up. Meanwhile, the weakness of the US CPI weakened the dollar's weakness.

Specifically, the geopolitical situation in the DPRK, Syria and Afghanistan is still tense. Turkey's referendum has amended the constitution to strengthen the president's power, and President El has been calling for gold.

France will have its first general election on Sunday (April 23rd), and many candidates are supporting Europe.

A number of factors helped gold and the yen rise.

Taking the lead, spot gold refreshed its five month high to $1295.56 / ounce, and the US dollar rose to a low of five months against the yen. Yamamoto Masamitsu, chief foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Securities, said that it is unclear whether the North Korean situation will escalate into military action, but the uncertainty is heating up and the US dollar continues to decline slightly. 108.23.

Below the 200 day moving average, cut 108.80, which is not stable from the technical aspect.

The strong dollar policy is just a facade for most of the time.

The abandonment of such a policy may prove to be a facade, unless the fundamentals of the economy and direct policy initiatives jointly depress the dollar.

In terms of fundamentals, there is no doubt that the US dollar is now overvalued relative to the long-term equilibrium exchange rate of most other currencies.

According to William Klein of the Pedersen Institute for international economics, the US dollar is about 11% higher than the basic equilibrium exchange rate in mid November last year.

This is consistent with the current valuation of about 9% higher.

Although this is not a huge imbalance, it is true that Jean Trump's claim that the current level of the dollar is hurting the trade competitiveness of the United States has some credibility.

But the question now is what measures to take.

The end of a strong dollar policy means the end of a strong dollar, which may have some impact, especially if it encourages the Asian trading partners of the United States to bear a stronger currency in general.

However, a big bear market in the US dollar needs the Federal Reserve to abandon its plan to tighten monetary policy.

And that doesn't seem too far away.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.