Bond Market "Trap": Investors Should Not Be Tempted By "Trump Illusion".

Bill Gross, the bond market investor, raised the warning switch. He warned investors not to be tempted to buy stocks, high-yield junk bonds and other assets, because President Trump may not be able to implement any policy initiatives aimed at stimulating economic growth. Gross,

"The stock market is currently carrying too much hope. The high yield junk bond market is overcharging for growth, and all asset prices have been pushed up to a high level of human capital that only model driven can achieve. According to historical investors, it is believed that this situation may bring about similar returns over the past six years, or before Lehman Brothers' downfall."

In the latest investment outlook report, Gross pointed out that "the high growth rate and the productivity driving this growth may make people forget the past era."

Gross is currently in charge of Chun Li global unrestricted bonds.

Earlier this year, he said investors should not be tempted by the "Trump illusion".

Trump has indicated that he wants to push the economy to achieve 3-4% growth rate, and implement a series of measures such as tax reduction and deregulation.

Gross said that the US stock market and corporate bond market rose sharply, because the expected tax reform would be completed sooner rather than later.

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Can the agenda enable the economy to show a 3% growth? "Gross wrote in a customer report in April.

"This is an investment question that is always being asked, and its conclusion will not be like a romantic history on a desert island, but will determine the asset price level of each investment category."

Gross said that economic growth depended on productivity. He referred to the long term proposition of Robert Gordon, an economics professor at Northwestern University, who said that the decline in productivity may be due to the fact that "all the drooping fruits have been picked up", such as electrification and other technology achievements in twentieth Century.

Gross pointed out, "however, this is obviously related to the low level of private sector investment in recent years, which makes it impossible to ask why private sector investment is so low."

"Optimists claim that smart phones and medical technology are like the car market of the year, and the future impact is not yet apparent, which will eventually lead the economy back to the historical trend," he said.

Recently, the concept of big bay area in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau is relaying the regional theme restlessness in the A share market this spring.

Statistics show that this year, the central government will study and formulate the development plan for Hongkong, Hong Kong and Macau, and will launch the "bond link" between the mainland and the Hongkong. The purpose is to further strengthen exchanges and cooperation between the mainland and Hongkong and continue to inject new momentum into the development of Hong Kong.

It is reported that Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhaoqing, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Huizhou, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Jiangmen and the two special administrative regions of the 9 special administrative regions are the city groups.

The concept and planning of Tai Wan area in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau have existed for a long time, but this brings different scenery to the capital market.

Chen Guo, an analyst at Anxin securities, said that since the concept of "big bay area" in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau was put forward in 2008, it has been continuously promoted by the central and local governments. From the initial exploration, we have considered the new pattern of the Pearl River Delta regional cooperation, and the development strategy of the Pearl River Delta and Pan Pearl River Delta strategy, the Pearl River West River economic belt and so on.

The strategy put forward to jointly build the big bay area of Guangdong, Hongkong and Macau, the development strategy of the Pearl River Delta is deepening, urban planning is constantly upgrading and improving, and the commissioning of the Hong Kong Zhuhai Macao Bridge at the end of the year indicates the arrival of the integration of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao.

As soon as the hot spots appear, the capital market is on the move.

In April 11th, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau launched the concept stocks, including port stocks and real estate stocks active, Yantian port, Shenzhen Hongwan A, Shi Rong Zhao Ye, GREE real estate and other trading.

In April 12th, the port shipping and real estate sector in Guangdong continued to become the "pioneer force" of the concept group of Zhuhai, Hong Kong and Macau. The shares of Zhuhai port, Yantian port, GREE real estate and Zhujiang industry were sealed down.

There is a market view that many of the funds that are not involved in the Xiong new area concept fund are being assembled and launched to the big bay area plate of Guangdong, Hongkong and Macau, and the large bay area of Guangdong, Hongkong and Macau involves more shares and strong participation. Core regional companies, large infrastructure and large leisure groups are important targets of the Tai Wan area.

Whether it is the concept of "Xiong an new area" or the concept of "big bay" in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau, all kinds of funds are in full swing, and their "routines" are different, so it is difficult to form a resultant force.

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