Production Is Hard To Come Up With Raw Material Slump, PTA Accelerating

Last weekend, a number of domestic terephthalic acid (PTA) production enterprises announced the implementation of production reduction in early December. However, the continuous collapse of crude oil resulted in the collapse of PTA production costs, which has weakened the effectiveness of the joint news of the joint production reduction.

Analysts believe that under the background of weak raw material prices, PTA futures are hard to get rid of the declining trend, but the impact of contract reduction in recent months will be relatively strong.

Yesterday, the domestic commodity futures market suffered "black Monday", and the seven varieties closed down, PTA was also among them.

The main 1505 contract closed at 5158 yuan / ton, 216 yuan more than the day before yesterday's settlement price, or 4.02%. On the same day, the turnover increased from 29964 to 636 thousand.

PTA spot price fell 30 yuan to 5450 yuan / ton, overnight raw materials to xylene (PX) price fell 53 US dollars to 945 U.S. dollars / ton.

The long-awaited joint production cut was settled last weekend.

Related news shows that Yisheng Petrochemical has implemented production reduction plan since December 1st: Ningbo 1#, 2# device to maintain parking, 4#225 million tons of device parking; Dalian 2#350 million tons of device parking; Hainan 2 million 200 thousand tons of equipment in the same period dropped negative operation; Yisheng December overall operating rate dropped to 50%.

In addition, Xiang Lu petrochemical, Hengli petrochemical and other domestic PTA production also announced the same day parking inspection arrangements.

Dong Dandan, senior analyst at Guotai Junan Futures, said the PTA factory announced a massive reduction in production at the weekend, with the largest reduction in the three main factories.

"The PTA plant is doing this to better end the last month of 2014, in order to minimize the loss of stocks of raw materials and products, in order to further suppress PX, although PX is already very weak.

The joint production reduction is the biggest support for PTA spot price in December. No matter how crude oil and PX price go next, the good trend of downstream polyester will push up PTA price, which has made PTA's demand and supply larger.

"

She said.

She said,

and

The production capacity is 4348 and 44 million 390 thousand tons respectively, and the starting rate of polyester in December is 80%, and the operating rate of PTA is 60%. Then the social stock will be reduced by 400 thousand tons in that month. If the PTA operation rate is 55%, then the social inventory of PTA will be reduced by 560 thousand tons.

In July, ~11 increased about 550 thousand tons of social inventory in the four months.

If the reduction is strictly enforced, the 1501 contract will reappear in the soft market.

Investors can do the ~5 months in January, the price difference may be extended to 400 points, and 1501 contracts can be followed up unilaterally.

In terms of polyester, the composite load is maintained at 8 to a higher level. Raw material demand is acceptable. Individual polyester factories increase the contract volume and PTA factory spot pressure relieved.

At present, the product efficiency is still good, and the product inventory is low, short-term device load will remain high, raw material demand is still good, production and marketing is slightly weaker; in terms of PX, affected by the weakness of the crude oil terminal, it will drop sharply, plus its supply side is loose, and the demand side will have a reduction in production stage, and a larger decrease.

At present, the price difference of naphtha -PX is still good, short term or difficult to perform well; on the PTA side, the load of the plant is still high, the substantial reduction is still not in place, and the product efficiency has greatly improved after the collapse of the cost side. The market is expected to reduce production intensity little.

In the view of spot business, HSBC November China manufacturing manager index (PMI) ended at 50, with a forecast value of 50.2 and a pre value of 50.4.

Oil prices continue to fall, naphtha and MX/PX can not be stopped, PTA is still weak, but at the end of PTA announced a reduction in production, in December, eight enterprises cut more than 10 million tons.

At the low point of polyester enterprise inventory, weaving has not deteriorated. Weaving began to change in December, and the magnitude of raw material PTA will be greater.