Cost Collapse PTA Stop

I just started. Chemical products Futures research was instilled in the "common sense" that is, without systemic risk, the normal price range of WTI crude oil is between 80 and 110 US dollars / barrel, of which 95 US dollars / barrel can be regarded as the oil and gas business. Therefore, there is no Systemic risk On the premise of $80 / barrel support for crude oil is strong. At present, crude oil prices fall below 80 US dollars / barrel, and the "systemic risk" that caused the crude oil to drop sharply is Saudi Arabia's low price dumping of crude oil.

Judging from the current situation, crude oil Price Below 80 US dollars / barrel, Canada's oil sands are no longer profitable, and the price is below the current price of US $70 / barrel. Most of the shale oil has no profit. However, if we want to force the North American oil company to stop shale oil exploitation, the price of crude oil must remain low for a long time. We believe that the latter OPEC will still maintain its existing output, and crude oil prices will remain low this year. Therefore, when the price of crude oil is at a low level, the price of PTA is difficult to go against the trend.

In addition, polyester filament stocks are at a historic low. As of November 21st, the average stock of polyester filament POY was 10.5 days, down 4 days from the end of September, decreased by 27.59%; the average stock of polyester filament DTY was 13.5 days, which was 6 days lower than that at the end of September, and decreased by 30.77%; the average stock of polyester filament FDY was 14.5 days, which was 2 days lower than that of September, and decreased by 12.12%.

As the stock of downstream polyester enterprises is in a low position, PTA enterprises in the early stage are interested in limiting production and insurance again, pushing up the price of PTA. However, under the background of serious overcapacity in the PTA industry, the limited production and price protection of enterprises can not change the weak pattern of PTA prices. In addition, it is difficult for the oligarchs to limit production and insurance prices for long term maintenance. We believe that limited production and price protection can only cause a rebound in the price of PTA, but it can not change the downward trend of PTA prices.

In addition, from past years, the stock of polyester filament in November is often at a high level. However, because the price of crude oil has already suffered a setback, the market is short of market, and the downstream polyester enterprises are not willing to replenish the warehouse, so the strategy of buying and selling immediately is adopted. Therefore, in the context of PTA cost collapse, the demand deviates from the downstream inventory, and the collapse of cost may play a role in restraining demand.

To sum up, Saudi Arabia wants to push shale oil companies to stop production and reduce the initiative in the North American market by forcing crude oil prices down. Therefore, before Saudi Arabia has realized its "desire", the price of crude oil is hard to change even in the peak season of consumption, which determines that the prices of chemical products will be dominated by disadvantaged in the coming period. In addition, because PTA downstream enterprises are pessimistic about the market outlook and demand is hard to lift, I believe that PTA prices still have room to fall.