The Market Atmosphere Of Zhengzhou Cotton Is Warming.

In recent years, Zheng cotton's fluctuation has increased, but overall it is still plain. The turnover below 100 thousand hands has become normal. Under the guidance of national policies, it is difficult to foresee big fluctuations in the short term. capital Interest in Zheng cotton futures is not high.

The supply side will gradually improve.

As of December 14th, cotton temporary storage and storage transactions totaled 1531300 tons this year, including 486180 tons in the mainland and 1045120 tons in Xinjiang, including 14 tons of cotton 123700 tons in 2011, and 46480 tons in real terms, with a turnover rate of 37.6%. Since December 5th, when the high point of 69780 tons of storage was set up, although the reserves had declined, it remained at a high level. According to this progress, the storage capacity reached about 2 million tons this year, while the central storage cotton also raised the daily planned reserves in a timely manner, showing the determination of the market.

State purchasing and storage up to now, although the downstream demand is still sluggish, but the supply side has indeed improved. Market mentality has gradually changed, and some cotton enterprises with little financial pressure have begun to reserve some. cotton Although the price of cotton is low, the quota allocation is uncertain, and the current 1% tariff quota price is also very high.

Xinjiang cotton transportation difficulties also add more profits to the market. The current policy is also mainly for large enterprises, limited. Wagon It also gave the prefix enterprises, and many cotton enterprises had to choose steam transportation to the mainland.

Global demand for cotton continues to fall

Although the latest USDA supply and demand report continues to cut down the output of US cotton, the output of other countries has not been adjusted. Meanwhile, the consumption of most of the major cotton consuming countries such as China, India, Turkey and Bangladesh has been cut down. The global consumption synchronization has dropped by 637 thousand tons to 24 million 243 thousand tons, and the global end stocks have been increased by 590 thousand tons to 12 million 560 thousand tons. China's import demand has been raised by 327 thousand, and India's exports have been raised by 163 thousand tons as a result of the policy of purchasing and storage, plus the data of previous sales reports.

The increase in China's imports indicates that the domestic purchasing and storage policy has led to the supply and demand side, and the domestic and foreign markets are facing more obvious differences in the supply and demand environment. Domestic demand will become more pessimistic this year, and the market is now estimated to be under 9 million tons to 8 million tons. Many textile enterprises believe that the current situation is even more severe than the financial crisis of 2008. Although some big factories are still good, a large number of small businesses shutting down indicate the decline of demand. I believe that the volume of 9 million 798 thousand tons will still be high, and the latter will continue to adjust downward. The data of 2008/2009 will be a reference.

Chemical fiber price rebound

After experiencing a continuous decline, polyester staple fibers began to stabilize and rebound, and sticky short followed suit, showing strong rebound momentum. On the 15 day, the quotations for polyester and short were 11380 yuan / ton, sticky short papers at 15940 yuan / ton, and there was a certain increase. Although the market is still cautious about the trend of chemical fiber raw materials, it also illustrates some changes in market mindset and downstream demand. Recent cotton spot also showed signs of stabilization, the CC328 index rebounded slightly, and textile companies also began to raise the purchase price.

From the trend of textile raw materials, we can see that on the one hand, the spot price of cotton has risen slightly after stopping the decline. On the other hand, the price of cotton substitute has also rebounded, and the atmosphere in the spot market is beginning to show signs of transformation. The price of yarn remained weak, but it began to stabilize. On the 15 day, the price index of the 32 combed yarn was 25870 yuan / ton, and the combed 40 yarn price index was 30900 yuan / ton, which remained stable for nearly a week.

Although the market atmosphere has changed, the short term bearish remains.

In the early stage, when the storage and purchase volume was enlarged and the transaction price of the spot market had improved slightly, the atmosphere of many customers had picked up, and the price of Zheng cotton had shown a strong trend, especially in the forward 1209 contracts. The price once broke through the oscillation interval, but the pressure on the macro side of the negative plus the upper set guarantee plate led to the quick failure of the rebound.

In October 21st, under the influence of the price adjustment of large textile enterprises, the contract in May was once close to the closing price. However, the purchase of tickets by random strength appeared, and the price was re drawn to the top 20 thousand, showing the determination of the market in the low position. As of 5 days, the price continued to rise for three consecutive days, the May contract did not break through the 1 day high point, but the September contract has already explored the breakthrough. With the increase of storage capacity, the atmosphere of the whole market is changing.

The factors that make cotton as the empty variety have already subsided, but in the short term, the improvement of the fundamentals is difficult to show, but the price in the medium and long term is expected to get warmer.