Looking For "Nike" In A Shares, Focusing On Brand Menswear Enterprises

The world's largest sports shoe manufacturer

Men's clothing market is huge

What is the magic power of Nike that makes investors so obsessed with it? The answer is a compound growth rate of nearly 20 in the past 23% years.

According to the China Merchants Securities (Hongkong) report, in 1979~1999, the annual compound growth rate of Nike sales was 22.6%, from $150 million to $8 billion 780 million, and the compound growth rate in the next year was 7.8%.

Another GAP, a casual clothing brand, increased its composite growth rate from 19.8% to $13 billion 670 million in and 0.3% in the past year.

By contrast, the annual compound growth rate of luxury goods group LVMH and 1980~2000 is 14.5%, and the compound growth rate in the future is 11.1%.

From here, we can probably see the historical development track of the three major brand clothing companies.

Then, is there any room for further growth of sports brands? China Merchants Securities (Hongkong) believes that the domestic sporting goods market has experienced a rapid development in the past 10 years.

By the end of 2009, Lining's sales of $123 million had been comparable to that of Nike in 1988.

According to the sales scale, there is still a big gap between the male wolves in China and the American Ralph Lauren. There is still great potential for development in the future.

An authoritative survey shows that in 2010, the size of the domestic men's wear market was 440 billion 200 million yuan, accounting for 48% of the total retail sales of clothing.

It is expected to reach 517 billion 200 million yuan in 2011 and 15% in the industry.

In the next 3 years, China's men's wear market is expected to continue to grow faster than the market. The annual compound average growth rate of 2011~2013 is expected to be 15.6%, which is 13.3% higher than the annual composite average growth rate of 2009~2013 in the overall clothing market, and the share of the overall garment market will increase to 51.8%.

In this regard, China Merchants Securities (Hongkong) believes that, regardless of channel or sales scale, men's wear market is lagging behind sporting goods.

There are now about 8684 men's clothing companies listed in the mainland and Hongkong in 2010.

If the shop speed was maintained in 2010, there were 10084 shops in 2011.

Whether from the speed of shop opening or the total number of shops, men's clothing enterprises have low market penetration and big room for future development.

The market size of men's clothing is 2 times that of the sporting goods market, while the number of shops is only about 15% of the current number of shops in the sports market.

It is worth mentioning that the 3 quarter of this year, the domestic men's clothing listed companies generally exceeded expectations.

According to the Shen Wan report, the three quarterly performance of the men's clothing company is expected to have seven wolves and YOUNGOR.

From the growth of performance, the men's wear industry showed an accelerated growth. Most of the net profit growth was over 40%, of which 60% were wolves, 56% were birds of good luck, 45% of YOUNGOR, 48% of 48% and of 33%.

In 2011, the average PE value was 25 times, and in 2012 it was less than 20 times.

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Focus on seven wolves and nine herd Kings

Then, what are the most important concerns of domestic Mens listed companies?

Wang Qianjin, editor in chief of the first textile network and senior garment industry researcher, told reporters that men's clothing and casual wear are the two largest sub sectors with the greatest potential in the future.

Among them, the market pattern of men's wear has been basically settled, that is, the market share of men's clothing brands will be relatively stable in the next few years.

In contrast, casual wear competition will be fierce.

Finally, those who can attract market investment are those whose growth rate is higher than that of the same industry, and they are positioned to cater for the taste of the market.

From the perspective of individual stocks, the seven wolves and nine Mu Wang are the most notable men's clothing brands.

Among them, the seven wolves, as the leader of men's wear, have built up brand names and have stable customers. As long as their future terminal sales and store growth is stable, there is little problem of continuous improvement in profitability.

In the case of King Mu, the company specializes in making men's trousers.

Judging from the current situation, the growth rate of the market in the future is definitely higher than that in the export market, and the market capacity is large enough.

A clothing researcher who did not want to be named by a northern brokerage company introduced the problem of how to solve the inventory problem after the huge expansion.

In the 2008 Olympic Games, Adidas had largely discovered its inventory problems and led to a decline in its performance.

But the company gradually solved the above problems by introducing discount and terminal store response system, and repurchasing excess stock at factory discount stores.

Looking forward to domestic brand clothing, seven wolves have refinancing, but their store expansion space is still large.

At the same time, market demand for men's trousers is still larger.

Huatai Securities believes that the seven wolves have formed a brand management mode that is in line with the trend of the current casual wear market and its brand positioning.

In order to meet the diverse needs of different types of consumers, the company has formed seven brands including Saint worth, black label, red label, green label, blue label, women's wear and children's wear.

At present, the "red label", "green label" and "black label" are the main selling force of the company. In 2011, 1~6 contributed about 90% of the main business revenue.

In addition, after 2009~2010's upgrading of the internal supply chain, the company began to expand the extension.

In November this year, the company announced that it would conduct a non-public offering with a total capital of about 1 billion 800 million yuan, all of which would be invested in the construction of the "marketing network optimization project".

Taking into account the end of the year's valuation switch and the issuance effect, the company will give the company 23~25 times price earnings ratio, corresponding to the 2012 EPS1.79 yuan, and the stock price range will be 41.17~44.75 yuan in the next 6 months, giving the "recommended" rating.

Huatai joint said that the good momentum of sustained growth in volume and price growth was mainly due to accelerated channel expansion and single store performance.

The company gradually adjusted its product structure, and the increase in the number of shirts and jackets of high gross profit products exceeded men's trousers, which led to an increase in revenue and a steady high growth in sales during the reporting period.

The growth rate of orders in 2012 was up to market expectations.

Net profit growth exceeds revenue growth mainly from cost control.

Taking into account the company's male trousers market share ranks first in the country for eleven consecutive years, it is optimistic that its post marketing channels will accelerate the expansion of external sales and drive the sales revenue to rise and the multi brand process. It is expected that the EPS of 2011~2013 will be 0.90 yuan, 1.22 yuan and 1.40 yuan respectively, giving the "overweight" rating.