The Report Shows That A Total Investment Of 849 Billion 100 Million Yuan Is Needed For High-Speed Rail Construction.

The "7. 23" Wenzhou motor car rear end accident caused the Ministry of Railways to fall into a crisis of confidence.

The accident will make the financing discount.

Since 2008, the state has launched 4 trillion

At present, there are still a lot of high-speed railway projects under construction, which still need a lot of capital investment. The Ministry of Railways has determined that the investment scale in 2011 was 745 billion 500 million yuan, of which 600 billion yuan was invested in infrastructure construction.

Although the Ministry of Railways has repeatedly stressed that railway funds are guaranteed and future investment will not be reduced, the industry is quite skepticism about this.

"After the accident, the Ministry of Railways's investment scale is hard to achieve, and there should be a discount."

An analyst who did not want to be named yesterday said yesterday.

Reliance on loans and bond financing

In recent years, Zhao Jian, a school of economics and management, who has been deeply studied by China Railway in recent years, told reporters yesterday that "the accident of the motor car accident has undoubtedly increased the difficulty of financing by the Ministry of railways, and it is possible for the future capital chain to be on the verge of rupture". Zhao Jian

He said that the Ministry of Railways's financing channels include construction funds, depreciation funds, local government investment and institutional investment, including social security funds. Another important component is bank loans and bond financing.

Zhang Hongbo, an analyst at CITIC Securities (12.21, -0.04, -0.33%), pointed out in his report that after the launch of the high-speed rail construction, infrastructure investment rapidly climbed to the scale of 700 billion yuan in 2010.

Profitability is worrying

In the tight capital chain, the profitability of the Ministry of Railways is also worrying. Zhang Hongbo pointed out in the report that the current high-speed rail passenger flow is still in the breeding stage, and most of the high-speed rail in the short term is difficult to generate considerable profits.

Wuhan Guangzhou high-speed rail has been over 20 million since its opening in 2009, but it still has a deficit of 3 billion yuan.

At the same time, if we raise the profitability with the increase of freight rates, we need a long-term process.

Zhao Jian said that the scale of liabilities of the Ministry of railways may further increase in the future, and the asset liability ratio may rise further, or lead to the breakup of capital chains.

However, there are also analysts who do not want to be named, saying: "although the Ministry of Railways funds.

Influence

The "central force" behind the high-speed rail is affected.

Analysis said that the growth rate of related high-speed rail business of central enterprises will obviously slow down.

Before the rapid growth of high-speed rail, the central enterprises have been the dominant force, and these central enterprises have also benefited from the concept of high-speed rail, which is popular in the market.

However, since the beginning of this year, the central enterprises behind these high-speed railways have also been dragged down by the news of the high ranking officials of the Ministry of Railways and the frequent accidents.

Analysis said that the related businesses of central enterprises will obviously slow down.

Central enterprises are affected more.

From the present point of view, in the high-speed rail locomotives, project construction and iron and steel equipment, there are mainly Chinese 5.66,0.03,0.53%, China Southern car (5.80, -0.02, -0.34%), China Unicom, China Railway (3.57, -0.02, -0.56%), China Railway Construction (5.38,0.02,0.37%), Panzhihua Iron and Steel Group, Anshan Iron and Steel Group and other backbone enterprises.

"China north car and South car probably monopolize the domestic railway locomotive manufacturing market 95%, and railway construction is also mainly owned by the central enterprises.

Therefore, it is certain that the central enterprises will be more affected.

A securities analyst who did not want to be named yesterday told this reporter.

At present, central enterprises have not disclosed the proportion of high-speed rail to the proportion of their overall business, but motor vehicles are the main force of their new orders.

Last year, the biggest highlight of the performance of China's north car was its EMU business, with a 228.58% increase in revenue. China's North vehicle orders reached 121 billion yuan, of which the EMU order was 60 billion yuan.

A fund company manager who did not want to be named yesterday said that at present, the number of high speed rail vehicles in South car is still growing rapidly. However, after the accident, the reduction in orders in the second half of next year and next year will surely fall.

In addition, it will have a great impact on the export of CSR.

He sold all the shares of CSR yesterday morning.

The high speed rail business has slowed down before the accident.

An insider from the SASAC yesterday told our reporter that in fact, the growth of the high-speed rail business of many central enterprises before the accident slowed down obviously, and many central enterprises such as the China Railway Corporation undertook many projects.

This person analysis, the high-speed rail project slowdown is mainly due to the Ministry of Railways own financial problems.

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High speed rail "four vertical and four horizontal" construction projects to be built

Line start / end investment (100 million yuan) construction status

One vertical Beijing - Shanghai; Bengbu - Hefei; Nanjing - Hangzhou

Hejian line Hefei - Bengbu 102 under construction

Ning hang line Nanjing - Hangzhou 314 under construction

Two vertical Beijing - Shijiazhuang - Wuhan - Guangzhou - Shenzhen - Hongkong

Beijing Shijiazhuang Beijing Shijiazhuang 439 under construction

Shiwu line Shijiazhuang - Wuhan 1168 under construction

Guangzhou Shenzhen line Guangzhou - Shenzhen 167 under construction

Shenzhen Hong Kong line Shenzhen Hongkong 395 to be built

Three vertical Beijing - Shenyang; Harbin - Changchun - Shenyang - Dalian

Beijing Shenyang line Beijing Shenyang 962 to be built

Harbin Harbin Dalian 923 is under construction.

Four vertical Shanghai Hangzhou Ningbo Taizhou Wenzhou Fuzhou Xiamen Shenzhen

Shanghai Hangzhou line Shanghai Hangzhou 293 under construction

Hang Yong line Hangzhou - Ningbo 214 under construction

Xiamen Shenzhen Xiamen Shenzhen 417 under construction

One horizontal Xuzhou - Zhengzhou - Xi'an - Baoji - Lanzhou

Xu Zheng line Xuzhou Zhengzhou 486 to be built

Sai Bao line Xi'an Baoji 180 to be built

BOLN line Baoji Lanzhou 565 to be built

Two horizontal Hangzhou - Nanchang - Changsha - Guiyang - Kunming

Hangzhou long line Hangzhou Changsha 1161 to be built

Changkun line Changsha Kunming 1616 to be built

Three horizontal Qingdao - Ji'nan - Shijiazhuang - Taiyuan

Shijiazhuang line Ji'nan Shijiazhuang 449 to be built

Four horizontal Shanghai - Nanjing - Hefei - Wuhan - Yichang - Lichuan - Chongqing - Suining - Chengdu

Han Yi line Wuhan - Yichang 240 under construction

Yi Wan line Yichang Lichuan 225 is under construction.

Yu Li line Lichuan - Chongqing 269 under construction

Sui Yu line Chongqing Suining 48 under construction

Note: the above table does not include intercity and other routes in the Bohai rim, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the Central Plains metropolitan area.

Data source: drafting of the Beijing News New Beijing News / Guo Yu

International experience

The two mode: "construction and pportation integration", "separation of construction and pportation".

According to the information disclosed by reporters, the international high-speed railway construction and operation management can be divided into two modes: "construction and pportation integration" and "separation of construction and pportation".

The so-called "construction and pportation integration" means that the project legal person is responsible for the financing and construction of high-speed railways and the procurement of high-speed trains, and is responsible for line maintenance, operation and loan repayment.

This mode is conducive to the adoption of unified production technology standards and updating standards to ensure the integrity of high-speed railway pportation organization, equipment allocation, vehicle bottom turnover, line maintenance, and the consistency of line maintenance technical standards, so as to ensure the technical needs of operation and to improve pport efficiency.

South Korea's high-speed rail uses this model.

The "separation of construction and pportation" refers to the financing and construction of high-speed railway by a project legal person. After the project is completed, the project is pferred or leased to the high-speed railway operation company, which is operated by high-speed railway operation company or at the same time responsible for the maintenance of high-speed railway.

Japan, Germany and France adopt this model.