The Market Is Not Far Away From &Nbsp, And The Cotton Bull Market Will Continue.

Recently, after continuous rain stimulation for many days, cotton production has been recognized by most people. Cotton throwing and storage has been rising rapidly. Cotton futures and electronic matching have followed, and the market is "jubilant".

For the new year

1, the reduction in production is true. The tension in supply of cotton has not changed.

China Cotton Association recently released "cotton growth in August"

2, the global supply of cotton is basically adequate, but

In August 12th, the US Department of Agriculture released the latest monthly report on global cotton supply and demand. Due to the expansion of production demand gap, the global initial and final inventory in 2010/11 has been reduced.

The initial inventory dropped by 743 thousand tons.

In addition, the report also increased the output of India, the United States, Turkey and Australia. The world's cotton production reached 25 million 442 thousand tons, while the increase in demand from mainland China and Turkey increased the world's cotton consumption by 2.7% to 26 million 317 thousand tons.

According to output consumption, the global cotton gap was 875 thousand tons in 2010/11.

The report also reduced global end stocks to 9 million 931 thousand tons, and inventories consumption ratio fell to 38%, the smallest since 1994/95.

3, the state reserves failed to lower cotton prices, and seed cotton purchase prices continued to rise.

Although the national cotton store has repeatedly declared that it will stabilize domestic cotton prices by putting cotton reserves and imported cotton quotas, but it has little effect each time.

At present, the 600 thousand tons of cotton reserve auction is being carried out, and the 328 level paction price has been maintained at around 18000 yuan / ton, far higher than the government's bid price of 16500 yuan / ton, while cotton futures and electronic matching prices have risen, and reserve cotton has not lowered market cotton prices.

Since last week, Turpan has been stationed in flower picking workers and cotton purchasers. 4 yuan a kilogram of seed cotton has broken the historical record, but the acquisition is quite difficult.

In some places, the new flower is worth 40 yuan, and the price is 4.1 yuan / Jin. According to the local cotton seed price of 2.1 yuan / kilogram, plus 500 yuan processing fee and 100 yuan profit, the cost of new flower is 18000 yuan / ton after removing water, impurities and wastage. Compared with last year's 13000 yuan, the price directly raises 5000 yuan, or 38.46%.

4, downstream production is high, cotton demand continues to rise.

In 2010, after the baptism of the financial crisis, the economic situation at home and abroad has been further improved, and the export of textile and clothing has also shown a rapid growth momentum.

According to the latest statistics of the Statistics Center of the China Textile Industry Association, in July 2010, the cloth production of Enterprises above Designated Size reached 575 thousand and 990 meters, and the total output of cloth reached 35 billion 433 million 810 thousand meters in 1-7 months, an increase of 16.73% over the same period last year.

The output of cotton cloth was 3 billion 408 million 200 thousand meters in July, and the total output in 1-7 months reached 20 billion 974 million 320 thousand meters, an increase of 20.92% over the same period last year.

In addition, the production of dyed fabrics (including DENIM) in the first seven months of this year has also maintained steady growth, with a total output of 1 billion 476 million 410 thousand meters, an increase of 21.10% over the same period last year.

In 2010 1-7, the yarn production of Enterprises above Designated Size reached 15001135 tons, an increase of 16.19% over the same period last year, of which cotton yarn output reached 11451596 tons, an increase of 14.92% over the same period last year.

The increase in cotton yarn and cotton output needs more cotton, and the recovery of textile exports also supports cotton demand and cotton demand is rising.

5, tight supply, cotton prices continue to rise

According to USDA estimated data, the global demand for cotton is still larger than cotton production in 2011.

Although the auction of cotton reserves has eased the tension of cotton to a certain extent, the tight supply of cotton for two consecutive years is still the decisive factor.

International cotton prices have also hit a 10 year high since 2010, and the recent rise in international cotton prices.

Although the US cotton trend has slowed down considerably in recent years, cotton prices will remain relatively good in the short term, despite the reduction in the excellent and good rate of the US cotton and the improvement of domestic weather.

According to the CFTC classification report, the non-commercial long positions represented by funds continue to increase, and market funds are still optimistic about the trend of cotton futures in the later stage.

In general, cotton supply is tight after last year's supply. The global cotton supply and demand situation will continue to tighten in 2011.

The positive factors of market consumption are strengthening. In September, the peak season for textile industry is coming, and the domestic and foreign market is recovering well. It is expected that the cotton market will continue to bullish after the tight supply.