China'S Textile Industry Showed A Downward Trend In The First Half Of 2012

Since 2012, due to the weakening of international market demand, the slowing growth of domestic market demand, the excessive price difference between domestic and foreign cotton and other factors Textile industry The operation showed a downward trend, the production growth rate dropped significantly, the number of exports decreased, the enterprise benefits declined, and the losses at the front end of the industrial chain (cotton spinning, chemical fiber) increased. It is expected that the operating situation of the textile industry will be difficult to improve significantly in the second half of this year.

1、 Operation of textile industry from January to May

（1） Production grew at a low speed, and the growth rate dropped rapidly. From January to May, the total industrial output value of textile enterprises above designated size nationwide totaled 2144.9 billion yuan, up 11.8% year on year, 18.3 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year; The production and marketing rate was 97.3%, slightly lower than the same period last year. From January to May, the yarn output increased by 14.1% year on year, 4.0 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year; The output of chemical fiber increased by 15.1% year on year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year; The cloth production increased by 11.6% year on year, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.1 percentage points; The clothing output increased by 7.2% year on year, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.7 percentage points.

（2） Exports kept growing while domestic demand growth declined. From January to May, China's textile industry Clothing export 90.6 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, which is lower than the growth rate of 8.7% of the total national merchandise exports, of which the textile exports increased by 1.4% year on year, and the clothing exports increased by 2.5% year on year. Among the retail sales of enterprises (units) above designated size nationwide, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles increased by 16.2% year on year, 7.3 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.

（3） Investment growth slowed down, and the proportion of investment in central and western regions continued to increase. From January to May, China's textile industry accumulatively completed 261 billion yuan of fixed asset investment in projects above 5 million yuan, up 18.5% year on year, 17.7 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, 1.6 percentage points lower than that of the whole society's fixed asset investment in the same period; 5759 new projects were started, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%. From January to May, the investment in the central region increased by 21.5% year on year, accounting for 29.4% of the country, 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year; The investment in the western region increased by 28.4% year on year, accounting for 7.8% of the national total, 0.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

（4） Profits continued to decline and the scope of enterprise losses expanded. From January to May, textile enterprises above designated size realized a total profit of 91.7 billion yuan, down 2.4% year on year, and the growth rate was 40.5 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year; The loss of enterprises above designated size reached 18.6%, 5.4 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year; The loss amount of loss making enterprises increased by 128.5% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 122 percentage points over the same period last year. Among them, the profit of chemical fiber industry dropped by 50.1% compared with the same period last year, and that of cotton yarn processing industry dropped by 5.9% year on year.

2、 Main problems affecting the operation of the textile industry

（1） Insufficient market demand. At present, the overall domestic and foreign macro-economy is in a downward trend. The impact of the European sovereign debt crisis is still spreading, and the subsequent impact of the international financial crisis continues to emerge. The international market continues to be depressed and the prospects are uncertain. In 2011, the global textile and clothing imports of the United States increased by 8.6% over the previous year, while only 3.4% from January to April this year. The demand of the EU dropped significantly. From January to May, China's exports to the EU fell by 11.2%. The domestic market is affected by high prices, lack of market confidence and other factors, and also shows a slowdown trend.

（2） The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton continued to expand. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has been widening. As of July 5, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices was about 4500 yuan/ton. The increasing price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has seriously weakened the international competitiveness of China's textile industry. From January to May, the export of cotton yarn decreased by 9% year on year, the import of cotton yarn increased by 78% year on year, the import of pure cotton grey cloth increased by 133% year on year, and the export of cotton products decreased by 3.4% year on year. Tracked by China Cotton Textile Association Cotton textile enterprises The loss rate reached 40%, and the production reduction and shutdown rate of spinning enterprises with less than 30000 spindles was close to 50%. Xinjiang is a region mainly engaged in the production of cotton textile primary products. At present, the loss of textile enterprises has reached about 65%, the sales revenue of the whole industry has dropped by 25%, and the loss of the whole industry has exceeded 300 million yuan.

（3） Competition in the international market has intensified. Affected by the increase of China's comprehensive factor cost and the improvement of textile competitiveness of neighboring countries, some purchase orders in the international market have gone to Southeast Asian countries, and China's market share of textile and clothing products in major developed countries has declined. According to US customs data, from January to April, the total amount of textiles and clothing imported by the United States from China accounted for 36.1% of its imports of similar products from the world, down 4.04 percentage points from 2011; According to Japanese customs data, from January to April, Japan's total imports of textiles and clothing from China accounted for 73% of its imports of similar products from the world, down 1.95 percentage points from 2011. In the same period, India, Vietnam, Bangladesh and other countries have increased their market share in the United States and Japan.

（4） Financing costs remain high. From January to May, the interest expenditure of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 28.6% year on year, 18.4 percentage points higher than the growth rate of main business income in the same period, while the growth rate of interest expenditure was only 6.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate of main business income in the same period last year. In the case of a sharp slowdown in production and sales growth, a large amount of interest expenditure has become another bottleneck restricting the development of textile enterprises.

3、 Trend judgment in the second half of the year

From the perspective of the global situation, the international economic situation is still not optimistic, there are unstable factors in the political situation, local regions are in frequent turbulence, and the downturn in international demand will continue; From the perspective of the industry development environment, it is difficult to completely improve the problems such as the continuous increase of production costs such as employment and the difficulty in financing in the short term. The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is still widening, and the development environment of the textile industry is still grim. From the perspective of the domestic economic situation, after both the deposit reserve ratio and the interest rate have been lowered, more "stable growth" measures are expected to be introduced, which may promote the domestic economic situation in China to stabilize and improve, and become an important support for the industry to run better.

On the whole, textile enterprises will still be in a difficult situation in the second half of the year. Textile and clothing exports will continue to grow at a low level. The overall efficiency growth of the industry will decline significantly compared with that of the previous year. The loss area of enterprises and the loss amount of loss making enterprises will expand, and more small, medium-sized and micro enterprises will face the risk of being eliminated.