Four Asked About The Economic Trend In The Second Half Of The Year

At present, our country Economics It is in a critical period of change from a good recovery to a stable growth. On the one hand, the fundamentals of the economy continue to improve. Gross domestic product Continue to maintain a relatively fast growth rate, steady growth in fiscal revenue and steady increase in the income of urban and rural residents. On the one hand, the economy faces many difficulties and problems, showing unprecedented twists and turns and complexity. The first half data released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that the GDP growth rate dropped by 1 percentage points in the two quarter compared with the first quarter, and the economic growth slowed down. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing industry in 6 and July announced by China logistics and purchasing Federation was 52.1% and 51.2%. Meanwhile, the impact of the spread of the European debt crisis on China's economy remains to be seen. These uncertain factors meet the challenges of complex and healthy operation of the economy.

One question: can the economy run smoothly?

The fundamentals continue to move towards a good trend, but the economic growth is slowing down.

Since the beginning of this year, the central government has strengthened the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies. Macro-control The pertinence and flexibility. At present, the economic growth is slowing down, the economic expansion is weakening, and the economic fundamentals remain unchanged. The economic operation is in line with the macro-control expectation.

The fundamentals continued to improve because the momentum of economic growth remained stable. First of all, in adjusting the economic structure, we have effectively expanded domestic demand and promoted the continuous growth of consumption. In the first half of this year, total retail sales of consumer goods totaled 72669 billion yuan, an increase of 18.2%. The per capita disposable income of urban residents has increased by 7.5%, and the per capita income of rural residents has increased by 9.5%. The steady growth of the income of urban and rural residents laid the foundation for the continuous growth of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the second half of the year.

Second, investment as a key internal demand has achieved steady growth. In the first half of this year, China's fixed assets investment was 114187 billion yuan, an increase of 25%, and the actual use of foreign capital was 51 billion 430 million yuan, an increase of 19.6%, which has increased the driving force for sustained economic growth. Third, the external demand has maintained a steady growth trend. In the first half of this year, the total value of China's exports increased by 35.2%. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in August 10th, the total value of China's exports reached 145 billion 520 million US dollars in July, an increase of 38.1%.

Slowing economic growth is the result of a series of macroeconomic control policies. According to the new situation of economic stabilization, recovery and improvement, as early as the end of last year, the central authorities put forward more emphasis on promoting the transformation of the mode of economic development and the adjustment of economic structure. Since the beginning of this year, the state has made clear provisions on the planning and use of local debt. The central bank has raised the deposit reserve rate for the 3 time, and guided by the window to protect the money supply and appropriately withdraw liquidity. The state has also issued strict control measures against the property market, aiming at lowering the excessive growth of housing prices. At present, a series of macro-control measures have been effective.

The indicators in the two quarter indicate that the signs of slower economic growth are more obvious. Does this mean that the fundamentals of the economy have changed? Zhang Xiaojing, director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the Institute of economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the macroeconomic regulation and control policy has strengthened pertinence, and the incentive policies have been moving forward and backward. Usually, the PMI index is above 50%, reflecting the overall economic expansion; less than 50%, reflecting the economic recession. Up to now, PMI has been higher than 50% for 17 consecutive months, indicating that the economy is still expanding. Zhang Liqun, special analyst of China logistics and purchasing Federation, believes that the domestic and international market environment has improved significantly compared with the same period last year, and the economic growth rate in the future will gradually become stable.

Although drought and waterlogging have had some impact on agriculture since this year, the overall situation of grain harvest has not been affected. Chen Houyi, vice president of the China Economic Law Research Association, said that changing the mode of economic development, adjusting the economic structure and promoting the transformation and upgrading of the economy will continue to be vigorously promoted.

Two question: is inflation pressure controllable?

The price rising trend is effectively controlled at the beginning of the year, and prices will be at a moderate level in the second half of the year.

Although the consumer price index (CPI) in July, which was released in August 11th, rose 3.3%, a record high this year, indicating that there is a certain inflationary pressure on the economy. But overall, China's prices are still at a moderate level.

Compared with last year, prices rose faster in the first half of the year. The prices of grain, mung bean and garlic fluctuated in the first half of the year, but the price situation was basically stable as the state strengthened the price regulation of the commodities concerned. From the producer price index (PPI), although the PPI grew by 6% in the first half of the year, it increased by 6.4% in June compared with the same period last year. With the slowdown in the second half of the year, PPI will show a downward trend.

Zhang Xiaojing said that the inflation expectations which the market was generally worried at the beginning of the year did not appear. Analyzing the causes of inflation is helpful to understand the current price situation and the price trend in the second half of the year.

From the perspective of cost push inflation, the current concern is the rise in labor costs and the adjustment of resource prices. Recently, the minimum wage standards have been raised everywhere, and the wage level has increased significantly. Short term is conducive to the expansion of demand, and in the medium and long term, there may be a cost push inflation risk. In addition, in recent months, the state has raised the price of some resources. On the whole, due to the orderly adjustment of wage adjustment, the adjustment of resource prices is more stable. Overcapacity will offset the risk of some price increases. Cost driven inflation is still under control despite pressure.

From the inflation of demand pull, one is total demand, that is, GDP growth. At present, there is downside risk in economic growth, easing demand pull inflation. The two is money supply. The liquidity created by huge credit last year will drive the price level this year. In terms of imported inflation, the European debt crisis is still spreading, resulting in the international commodity prices rising. At present, the purchase price index has dropped considerably, and the pressure of PPI rise has slowed down. The purchase price index in June was 51.3%, down 7.6% after the sharp decline of 13.7% in May. In July, the purchase price index was 50.4%, down 0.9% from last month. The fall in the purchasing price index means that the pressure of PPI rise is slowing down and the inflationary pressure is decreasing.

Chen Houyi said that as the economy slows down, the price situation will remain moderate in the second half of the year, although CPI will reach 3.1% and 3.3% in 6 and July. It is estimated that CPI will probably exceed 3% in 8 and September, but CPI will fall below 3% in the four quarter. At present, various factors that cause price rises still exist. We should pay close attention to the changes in the price situation, manage and control inflation expectations by means of macroeconomic regulation and control, and maintain the basic stability of the price situation.

Three question: what is the trend of asset prices?

In the second half of the year, the price growth of the property market declined moderately, and the stock market maintained a concussion.

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Asset price performance is closely related to macroeconomic operation. To observe asset price movements, we must see whether bubbles exist in asset prices represented by property prices and stock prices. Since last year, the price of property as one of the asset prices has been rising unilaterally. In mid April this year, the state launched the "Ten States" to reduce the excessive growth of housing prices through differential loan policies and increased land supply, commercial housing supply and affordable housing supply. In 6 and July, property prices began to show a downward trend. Dong Fan, director of the real estate research center, said that if the macroeconomic policy remains unchanged, it is estimated that there will be a net negative growth in the property prices of the 70 large and medium-sized cities in the four quarter or the one or two quarter of next year.

Although property market regulation has achieved initial results, the housing bubble still exists to varying degrees. According to Ba Shu song, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, the overall judgment is that there are obvious bubbles in some cities, but there is not enough evidence to show that there is a nationwide property bubble.

The ratio of housing price to income is often an important indicator of housing price bubbles. The current housing price income ratio illustrates the existence of the housing bubble. Data show that China's housing price income ratio has exceeded 15 times. According to the world bank standard, the reasonable income ratio of real estate in developing countries is between 3 and 6 times. Ba believes that this index does not fully explain the real bubble in the real estate market because the molecules and denominator are misleading: the average housing price does not take into account the difference between different cities, different districts and different quality commodity houses; and the average income also does not take into account the income gap between different income groups. Judging from the ratio of housing price to income, we can not draw a conclusion of the national bubble. However, the price income ratio of some big cities is far beyond the national average level, and the property price bubble is very obvious with the rapid rise of property prices.

Zhang Xiaojing said that from the emergence, brewing and sustainable cycle of the real estate bubble in developed countries, China's bubble in 2010 is more of an early warning. With the contraction of credit, the local bubble will hardly become a national bubble. It is expected that the real estate price will decrease moderately in the second half of the year, and the property market bubble will be gradually suppressed.

The important index to measure the degree of stock price bubble is price earnings ratio. According to the data provided by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as at August 10th, based on the annual report in 2009, the average static price earnings ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen was 22.58 times, and that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 17.79 times. Professor Liu Xin said that although the Shanghai stock index has dropped to more than 2300 points in the early July from the 3000 point of this year, the stock price has been largely explored, but there is still a reasonable bubble in the stock market.

The construction of multi-level capital market in China has welcomed an important year this year. Stock index futures have been officially launched, and the growth enterprise market has been expanding and improving. Through direct financing, capital markets raise large amounts of funds for enterprises and effectively promote economic growth. Liu Xin said that capital market should tolerate certain bubbles to show the activity of capital market. There are some bubbles in the stock market, but the valuation of stock price and the degree of market bubble are basically at a reasonable level. At present, the economy continues to maintain a steady growth trend, policy continuity and stability, it is expected that the stock market will remain stable in the second half of this year.

Four question: how to control the policy?

Adhere to macroeconomic regulation and control, do not relax, adhere to the regulation of the property market do not let go.

At present, while the economy continues to maintain a good momentum of recovery, the pattern of consumption, investment and exports jointly promoting economic growth has initially taken shape. The dynamic structure of economic growth has undergone positive changes, and the stability and sustainability of growth has been strengthened. The growth is expected to maintain a relatively fast growth throughout the year, but the slowdown in economic growth will bring about some new problems.

The property market is related to the macro and micro level. At present, one of the key points of macroeconomic regulation and control is the regulation of the property market. On the one hand, the impact of property market regulation has been initially apparent. In the first half of the year, the national commercial housing sales area was 394 million square meters, an increase of 15.4% over the same period last year, an increase of 7.1 percentage points from 1 to May, and a marked decline in the 3 consecutive months. Dong Fan said that the impact of the property market regulation on the upstream and downstream industries has emerged. Since mid April, construction steel prices have continued to decline, with a total decline of 1000 yuan / ton.

On the other hand, the housing market has achieved initial success in the regulation and control. Meanwhile, the situation of excessive unilateral rise in housing prices has not fundamentally reversed. In the past six months, housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide showed a net increase. In June, the sales price of housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities increased by 11.4% compared to the same period in July, up 10.3% in the same period in July. Up to now, there is even an expanding trend in housing prices in the first tier cities. Data show that in July, new housing prices rose by 20.1% over the same period, or the highest in the country. In addition, by June, there will be more than 190 million square meters of commercial housing for sale nationwide.

Market regulation is an important aspect of macroeconomic regulation and control. Ba Shu Song said that we must stick to macro regulation and control and not let go of market regulation. Any form of property market regulation and control policy should aim at restraining the real estate bubble and preventing the economic shocks from going too far, so as to avoid the economic shock caused by the bubble burst. At present, macroeconomic regulation and control must be balanced between the three tasks of economic growth, the deepening of economic restructuring, and the management of inflation expectations.

The Central Committee stressed that macroeconomic regulation and control should maintain stability and continuity of policies and enhance pertinence and flexibility. Zhang Xiaojing said that the current market regulation must be hedged by policy. For example, the clearance of local financing platform should be carried out in a rational and orderly way, allowing local buffer time; some eligible project approval can also be expedite; the construction of affordable housing should be accelerated; the infrastructure construction that is conducive to long-term development should be strengthened, and the construction of endogenous economic mechanism should be strengthened. We should implement the "new thirty-six item" and encourage private investment.

At present, in the critical period of the transition from economic recovery to steady growth, efforts should be made to promote economic structural adjustment, structural reform and transformation of the mode of economic development, so that macroeconomic regulation and control will help to overcome short-term difficulties, solve the current outstanding contradictions, and help build a sustainable development mechanism and system, and solve the structural and structural contradictions in the long-term economic development. China's economy will get better and better.