Market Observation: Insufficient Confidence Of Textile Enterprises Limits The Rebound Height Of Zheng Mian

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in March, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, knitwear and textiles were 124 billion yuan, up 3.6% year on year. From January to March, the cumulative retail sales were 386.9 billion yuan, up 3.4% year on year. The domestic consumption market data shows a certain growth trend. At the same time, the customs data also reflects the latest situation of China's textile and clothing exports. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in April 2025, China's export of textiles and clothing reached US $24.186 billion, up 1.1% year on year and 3.35% month on month.

From the cumulative data, textile exports reached US $12.58 billion, up 3.2% year on year; Clothing exports reached US $11.607 billion, down 1.17% year on year and up 2.25% month on month. From January to April 2025, China's export of textiles and clothing reached 90.468 billion US dollars, up 1.1% year on year. Among them, textile exports reached 45.848 billion US dollars, up 3.8% year on year; Garment exports reached US $44.62 billion, down 1.5% year on year. Based on the above data, China's textile and clothing terminal demand is OK, but the bigger problem may be the increase in export volume and the decline in price, as well as the continuous compression of downstream industry profits.

Take pure cotton yarn as an example. At present, Xinjiang yarn mills still have some profits, but most of the mainland textile enterprises operate near the cash flow cost. Therefore, in terms of raw material procurement, some enterprises are more cautious and mainly purchase on demand. In addition, the global tariff friction is still evolving. Although it has eased in the short term, there are still some uncertainties in the long term.

At the same time, at present, the domestic downstream is in the low consumption season, and the shortage of new orders has led to the continuous accumulation of finished products in the gauze factory, which has weakened the demand for raw materials. In addition, affected by repeated changes in policies, enterprises have insufficient confidence in the future market, which may limit the rebound height of Zheng Mian. In the future, attention should be paid to the actual implementation effect of policies.

Turning to the futures price of American Cotton, Chen Jianing said that although the fund's non-commercial short position declined, the volume of American Cotton's unpriced purchase contracts was still at a high level. In the short term, the expected production reduction in the new year will support the price, while the decline of tariffs between China and the United States may cause the price of American cotton to rebound under the fluctuation of market sentiment. However, in the future, we need to pay close attention to the weather in the production area and the change of the dollar index.

However, Chen Jiayi said that at the current time node, the market vision is gradually shifting to new cotton planting, macroeconomic and policy changes. Cotton is a variety that has been significantly impacted in this tariff friction. With the opening of the tariff negotiations between China and the United States, the macro sentiment has been improved. The short-term price trend may be highly related to this,

In the short term, the Sino US negotiations are good, and the sentiment is expected to support the rebound of domestic and foreign cotton prices. In the external market, the number of unpriced purchases is still high, which suppresses the rising space of the market. However, the planting area of newly planted American cotton is expected to decline by 12% year on year. Therefore, we need to focus on the drought situation in the third quarter. Under the expectation of production reduction of newly planted American cotton, the inventory sales ratio of newly planted American cotton may decline.

In the long run, the price focus of American cotton may rise. Internally, the area of newly planted cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase year on year. At present, the weather in the production area is normal, and the unit yield is expected to be stable. Therefore, the current upward drive from the supply side is not strong. Attention should be paid to the pace of cotton commercial inventory de stocking from May to June. If the high de stocking level from March to April continues in the second quarter, it will support the cotton price to run strongly in May to June.