Global Perspective: Analysis Of The Complex New Situation Of Global Clothing Retail In Recent Two Months

In the first half of 2022, the global economic recovery is weak, and many key consumer markets in the world are mired in inflation. The high CPI, fragile and unstable supply chain, trade barriers, and repeated epidemic disturbances continue to affect the healthy and sustainable development of textile and clothing retail.

Facing the complex and severe economic situation, under the positive and negative effects of the loosening of epidemic situation and inflation squeeze, how to stimulate market vitality, boost consumer confidence, and then promote stable economic development has become the core concern of multinational economic governance.

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The US consumer price index (CPI) rose 9.1% year-on-year and 1.3% month on month in June. Both month on month and year-on-year increases were significantly larger than those in May, and the year-on-year increase reached a new record. U.S. retail sales rose 1% month on month to $680.6 billion in June, up 8.4% year-on-year. In the same month, the retail sales of clothing (including footwear) in the United States was US $25.76 billion, down 0.2% year-on-year. The rising inflation has pushed up the prices of a variety of daily consumer goods, and the "optional consumer goods" represented by clothing, shoes and hats are facing greater sales pressure.

In May, Canadian CPI rose 7.7% year-on-year, reaching the highest level in 40 years. In the same month, Canada's total retail sales increased by 14.1% year-on-year; The sales volume of clothing products was CAD 2.51 billion (about US $1.96 billion), up 93.7% from last year's low base effect.

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In June, inflation in the euro zone rose to 8.6% under the influence of soaring energy prices, reaching an all-time high; Inflation rates in the UK, France, Italy and other countries have also been rising. Official data show that the retail growth of clothing products in European countries has slowed down since May, and the low base effect in the same period of last year has gradually weakened.

In May, German clothing retail sales increased by 71.4% year on year; The retail sales of clothing in the Netherlands increased by 15.7% year on year; The retail sales of leather products increased by about EUR 467 million (about USD 467 million) compared with the sales of leather products in France (about EUR 467 million). Compared with the same period last year, the retail sales of textile, clothing and leather products in France increased by 6.3% in May.

UK textile, clothing and footwear sales in June were 5.03 billion pounds (about US $6.12 billion), up 12% year-on-year.

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Many Asian countries are also suffering from imported inflation. From May to June, the inflation rate of most Asian economies exceeded 3% except for a few countries such as China, Japan and Malaysia.

In May, Japan's textile and clothing sales volume was 763 billion yen (about 5.67 billion US dollars), an increase of 11.8% year-on-year. Turkey's inflation was as high as 73.5% in May. The retail sales of textiles, clothing and footwear increased by 58.2% year-on-year and decreased by 1.6% month on month.

Retail sales of clothing and footwear in Singapore rose 98.2% year-on-year in May, showing a trend of "retaliatory consumption". Singapore's further relaxation of epidemic prevention measures and substantial relaxation of entry restrictions have accelerated the recovery of consumption of clothing products.

In June, China's CPI increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with a steady increase; The sales volume of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles above the quota was 119.8 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2% over the same period of last year. The growth rate turned from negative to positive, and the textile and clothing consumption was further restored. As the epidemic situation stabilizes and a number of policies to promote consumption take effect, it is expected that China's textile and clothing consumption will continue to stabilize and improve in the second half of the year.

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　　 Oceania - Australia

Australia's retail sales of clothing, footwear and personal goods in May reached a $2.87 billion (about $2.01 billion), up 14.6% year-on-year, and consumer demand continued to grow steadily.

　　 South America - Brazil

In the first five months of this year, retail sales in Brazil increased by 1.8%. Under the influence of inflation, the consumer confidence of Brazilian residents has been weakened, and the sales of textiles and clothing products have not been significantly affected. In May, Brazil's textile, clothing and footwear sales increased by 8.3% year-on-year and 3.5% month on month.

　　 Africa - South Africa

In May, affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the rise of US interest rates, CPI in South Africa increased by 6.5% year-on-year, reaching the highest level since 2017. In the same month, the retail sales of textiles, clothing, footwear and leather products in South Africa were R16 billion (about US $970 million), the best monthly sales performance since this year, but decreased by 4% year-on-year, and the growth rate turned negative for the first time in five months. At present, South Africa is entering the fifth wave of new epidemic peak, coupled with frequent extreme weather and climate disasters, which may have a great impact on the recovery of consumption in South Africa.

Source: China Textile International Cooperation Alliance