"Crazy" Silicon Material: The Net Profit Of Tongwei In The First Half Of The Year Exceeds That Of The Whole Year Of 2019

The latest data show that the domestic price of polysilicon material is still very strong.

On August 18, the silicon industry branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the silicon industry branch) announced the latest price of polycrystalline silicon materials. This week, the average transaction price of domestic single crystal re feeding materials was 205800 yuan / T, with a week on week increase of 0.24%; The average transaction price of single crystal densified material was 203500 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.15%. This is the price of domestic polysilicon materials rose slightly for two consecutive weeks after stabilizing and rebounding last week.

Silicon is still going crazy. As the upstream raw material of photovoltaic industry chain, polysilicon material with rising price is making the profit of industrial chain transfer. Take Tongwei shares (600438. SH), a leading enterprise, as an example, its net profit in the first half of this year increased significantly.

21st century economic reporter noted that the company's net profit in the first half of the year has exceeded that of the whole year of 2019 due to the high profit of polysilicon material business.

The gross profit rate of silicon material is close to 70%

On August 18, Tongwei company officially released the first half of this year's performance report. According to the financial report, the company realized 26.562 billion yuan of operating revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 41.75%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.966 billion yuan, up 193.50% year on year.

Although the share price of Tongwei shares has been hot speculation in the secondary market since last year, many institutional investors have reduced their holdings of Tongwei shares during the reporting period. According to the statistics provided by wind, by the end of June this year, the total shareholding ratio of Tongwei shares held by the institutions was 62.63%, nearly 9% lower than that at the end of 2020.

Thanks to the support of its own photovoltaic business, the market value of Tongwei shares reached a record high last year, once exceeding 250 billion yuan. But in fact, in the main business structure, the company is "agriculture + photovoltaic" dual main business model. However, the current attention of its photovoltaic business has significantly exceeded the feed business. This is also reflected in the financial report.

In the first half of this year, Tongwei's feed and industrial chain business achieved a revenue of 9.895 billion yuan, accounting for only 37.25% of the total. This means that in the first half of this year, photovoltaic business has contributed more than 60% of revenue, becoming the main revenue source of Tongwei shares. The 21st century economic reporter found that the turning point occurred in 2020, that is, before that, the revenue scale of feed business was always higher than that of photovoltaic business.

Behind the transformation of revenue structure, Tongwei has been increasing its investment in photovoltaic business.

At present, the company has formed a high-purity crystalline silicon, solar cells and other products. As of the first half of this year, the annual production capacity of polysilicon and battery is 80000 tons and 350000 tons respectively.

According to the capacity planning, Tongwei's polysilicon phase II with an annual output of 50000 tons, Baoshan phase I with an annual output of 50000 tons will be put into production at the end of this year, and Baotou phase II will be put into production within 2022. At the same time, it also plans to invest 200000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon capacity in Leshan, of which 100000 tons are planned to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2022. It is estimated that by the end of 2022, the company's annual production capacity of polysilicon will reach 330000 tons.

In terms of battery capacity, Tongwei shares also have a vigorous expansion rhythm. The company expects its total battery capacity to exceed 55gw by 2022. Among them, after the cooperation with Trina Solar, Tongwei has greatly increased the capacity of 210 large-scale batteries, and the capacity scale will exceed 35gw.

In the financial report, Tongwei shares did not disclose the specific revenue figures of polysilicon material business. The visible information is: in the first half of this year, the company's polysilicon production capacity was full production and sales, the capacity utilization rate was 126.50%, and the output was 50600 tons. The 21st century economic reporter learned that in the second quarter, Tongwei's polysilicon sales volume was about 26000 tons, and the average price was about 160000 yuan / ton. The rising price of polysilicon material has pushed up its gross profit rate to 69.39%.

Judging from the current supply and demand, such a high gross profit rate is still possible to maintain in the second half of this year.

High price of silicon material "box shock"

In fact, Tongwei is not the only beneficiary.

Daquan energy (688303. SH), another polysilicon material company with a market value of 100 billion yuan, predicts that in the first half of this year, its net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be about 1.92 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 530%. According to the semi annual performance forecast released by TBEA a few days ago, its net profit in the first half of the year was 3.036 billion yuan to 3.220 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 230% to 250%. The main reason is that "the sales volume of the company's polysilicon products in the report period increased compared with the same period in 2020 and the price of polysilicon products increased significantly year on year.".

It is undeniable that at present, the profit of photovoltaic industry chain is transferring to upstream.

For Tongwei shares, its continuous decline in polysilicon production costs is expected to continue its better profit situation. In the first half of this year, the average production cost of the company's polysilicon material was 36500 yuan / ton. Among them, the average production cost of Leshan phase I and Baotou phase I projects is as low as 33700 yuan / ton.

(polysilicon) production increased month by month, a variety of indicators fell sharply, power consumption, silicon powder consumption are declining According to a recent survey conducted by Tongwei Co., Ltd., the production cost of polysilicon project is expected to decline in the future, and the cost reduction space for new projects is 10%.

But the outside world is more concerned about the future trend of polysilicon prices.

After five consecutive weeks of price correction, polysilicon prices in the last two weeks have entered a small upward channel. In view of this week's price fluctuation, the silicon industry branch analyzed that "on the one hand, most of the silicon material enterprises' orders have basically been signed to the end of August or even the first ten days of September. Most of the newly signed orders this week are bulk orders and supplementary orders, and the transaction price increases by about 1 yuan / kg; On the other hand, driven by the expectation of a substantial increase in terminal demand in the second half of the year and the established shipping target, the demand for orders is gradually transmitted, which supports the increase in the operating rate of silicon wafer and the price recovery, and the demand for silicon materials continues to be good. "

In August, the terminal demand of photovoltaic industry chain gradually recovered to be optimistic, and the operating rate of the middle and lower reaches rebounded, supporting the price of raw materials in the upstream. It is worth noting that in addition to the price rise of silicon materials, recent price rebound of photovoltaic silicon wafers, cells, photovoltaic glass and other materials.

"This round of price rise is mainly due to the recovery of downstream demand, which leads to a slight increase in the price of the industrial chain, which once again enters the game stage." A senior new energy industry analyst who did not want to be named told the 21st century economic report that the industrial chain has accepted the fact that the upstream raw material prices have risen, but they will not let the prices rise endlessly.

The silicon industry branch also expressed a similar view, "the annual photovoltaic installed demand is expected to play a regulatory role in the sharp rise of prices in all links of the industrial chain from the terminal. It is estimated that the operating rate of the silicon link in the second half of the year is likely to be lowered again due to factors such as the gradual release of capacity expansion and higher than expected prices. However, considering the tight balance between supply and demand of silicon materials, the industry will continue to develop rapidly, It is expected that the price of silicon material will fluctuate within a reasonable range, and the space for rising or falling is relatively limited. "

Even for the price trend of next year, some industry views believe that the price of polycrystalline silicon material of 150000 yuan / ton will last until the first half of next year.

"Silicon material tight balance state is difficult to break in the short term, so the price will continue to high consolidation." According to the aforementioned analysts.

(Intern Qi Tianyi also contributed to this paper.)