Wang Wei "Changed" Shunfeng'S Turning Point Has Not Come Yet

      At the shareholders' meeting three months ago, Wang Wei, chairman of SF holdings, apologized: "I don't think the first quarter was really good."

Indeed, when the largest private express company in China issued a loss warning, the whole capital market was shocked. In the first quarter of this year, SF holdings lost 989 million yuan, and after deducting non recurring gains and losses, it lost 1.134 billion yuan, showing the first performance "black hole" since listing; Since the announcement of the results, the company's share price has dropped to 60.61 yuan per share, which is lower than the high price in February this year.

After the news of the loss broke out, the views of external analysis have been one after another. But for investors, what they are concerned about is when will the "dark moment" of SF holdings break?

In the face of many investors' questions: "the company lost in the first quarter, will the second quarter?" Wang Wei's response is: "the second quarter will certainly not lose money again, but the annual profit can not return to the same period last year."

According to the latest performance forecast for the first half of the year, Wang Wei has not broken his promise. However, it is true that SF holding's profitability recovery road will not be a smooth road.

Recovery of profits will take time

In view of the performance forecast of SF holdings in the first half of the year, the capital market still gave a positive response.

According to the forecast, in the first half of this year, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 640 million yuan to 830 million yuan, down 78% to 83% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the second quarter is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.629 billion yuan to 1.819 billion yuan. Many institutions said that SF holding's second quarter results were in line with expectations.

Affected by the positive news from the earnings forecast, the share price of SF holdings rose by more than 8% in the intraday period on July 14.

In the performance forecast, SF holdings explained a lot of reasons for the recovery of its net profit in the second quarter: first, some capacity bottlenecks have been eased, and the utilization rate of resources and operating efficiency have been steadily rising on a month on month basis; Secondly, we should strengthen the fine cost control, and the fixed assets cost will be diluted along with the growth of business volume, and the scale effect will be reflected; Third, the second quarter is the peak season of fresh food, and the business volume of time sensitive express delivery with good profitability rebounded month on month.

On July 13, the State Post Office held a regular press conference in the third quarter of 2021 to release the report on China Express development index in June 2021 to interpret the operation of the industry in the first half of the year. The 21st century economic reporter learned that in the first half of this year, the business volume of China's express delivery industry increased by more than 15 billion pieces, and the total volume exceeded 50 billion pieces, with a year-on-year increase of about 45%. In addition, in the first half of this year, the business income of China's express industry reached 480 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 27%.

According to the statistics of the operating indicators from January to may released by Shunfeng holdings, the 21st century economic reporter found that in the first five months of this year, the company realized 40.53 billion yuan of express logistics business revenue, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2%; 4.18 billion pieces of express business were realized, with a year-on-year increase of 40.89%. In terms of market share, SF Holdings' market share of express delivery business in the first five months of this year was 9.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the same period last year.

In terms of business volume, SF holdings maintained a good growth trend in the case of high base last year. In the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of the company's time effective parts fell, and the economic parts maintained a rapid growth due to the preferential products. However, due to the fierce competition from the supply side of the economy, the price declines and the incremental profit does not increase, which affects the overall profit. As a matter of fact, SF Holdings "scrambles for quantity" through economic devices, and the main support for profits is time effectiveness. Therefore, when the fresh products in the second quarter led to a month on month increase in the business volume of time sensitive parts, the company's overall profitability was restored.

Another point of concern is whether SF holdings will break through the bottleneck of scale caused by capacity in the second quarter.

Since the fourth quarter of last year, SF Holdings has increased its capital expenditure. Among them, capital expenditure in the fourth quarter of 2020 was 4.87 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 166.2%; Capital expenditure in the first quarter of this year was 3.67 billion yuan, up 107.6% year on year. Two consecutive quarters of high capital expenditure, mainly for the company's capacity expansion. Considering that the capacity release needs to go through a climbing period, the overall profitability repair still needs to wait for the turning point.

Objectively speaking, the net profit of SF holdings in the second quarter is much worse than that in the same period in 2020 or even in 2019. This means that the profit recovery of SF holdings will take some time.

At the shareholders' meeting in April, Wang Wei gave a more pessimistic attitude: "the annual profit can not return to the same period last year." However, some institutions in the summary of the second quarter's results of SF holdings believe that this "turning point" is not far away.

Northeast Securities expects that the company's profitability is expected to gradually return to the right track in the second half of the year, and the resource utilization rate and operating efficiency will return to the 2020 level.

However, the Mingxing team of Anxin transportation believes that "the company's four networks financing project is still in its infancy, and it will take time to realize complementary resource financing and improve network benefits. Looking forward to the second half of the year, with the arrival of the peak season, the company's overall capacity utilization rate has improved, and we expect the performance inflection point may appear in the fourth quarter. "

From "regret listing" to "competing for listing"

Although the recovery of profitability is currently the top priority of SF holdings, what Wang Wei wants to create is a "long-term core competitiveness", so that SF Holdings has a new growth curve.

Some media have put forward such a view: SF holdings is now deeply involved in "four battles" -- price war, performance war, capital war and management service war. Among them, "price war" and "performance war" are familiar. However, "capital war" and "management service war" have become the new challenges of SF holdings.

21st century economic reporter noticed that in the whole business layout, SF holdings takes express business as the core, trying to get through the upstream and downstream, and makes layout in the aspects of supply chain, international business, express, intra city, logistics and real estate business. For example, the acquisition of 51.8% equity of Kerry Logistics will strengthen the coverage of overseas business and enhance the strength of international cross-border freight transportation; It is proposed to increase no more than 20 billion yuan for the automation upgrading project of express transportation equipment, the project of new Hubei Ezhou civil airport transfer center, the construction of digital intelligent supply chain system solution, the improvement of land transportation capacity, the purchase and maintenance of aviation materials, and the supplement of working capital.

The most surprising thing for the outside world is the great change of Wang Wei's attitude towards the capital market.

Before Shunfeng holdings backdoor landing a shares, Wang Wei's attitude towards the capital market is indifferent. From "not going public for money" when interviewed by the media in 2011 to "regretting listing" on the general meeting of shareholders in 2021, Wang Wei seems to have retained an inherent opinion on the capital market.

However, Shun Fung Holdings set off the "capital war" is not soft.

In May this year, SF real estate trust was put on the Hong Kong stock market, and its city business also stood at the gate of the Hong Kong stock exchange, and will be listed on the stock market before the Mid Autumn Festival as soon as possible.

On June 30, SF delivered its prospectus to the Hong Kong stock exchange. According to the prospectus, from 2018 to 2020, the company's operating revenue will be RMB 993 million, RMB 2.11 billion and RMB 4.84 billion respectively, and the total annual loss and comprehensive loss will be RMB 330 million, RMB 470 million and RMB 760 million respectively. If it goes public smoothly, SF will become the "first real-time logistics stock" in Hong Kong stock market, and Wang Wei will also have a number of listed companies.

In the view of industry insiders, the purpose of Shunfeng's listing in Hong Kong is to "encircle money", because the business in this sector is "short of money"“ SF's intra city business is still in the cultivation stage and needs a lot of financial support. " An analyst who did not want to be named told the 21st century economic report that after the split listing, the financing channels of local businesses will become wider, and the financing pressure of the parent company will be slightly reduced.

Wang Wei "changed", but he had to. As the company's management said at the first quarter shareholders' meeting, "2021 is a key year for the company to connect the past with the future."