Interpretation Of Real Estate Market Data In November: The Transaction Price Of Real Estate Market Rises Steadily And The Tone Of Regulation Remains Unchanged

After the epidemic, the real estate market showed rare resilience and became an important driver of economic growth.

On December 15, the National Bureau of statistics released the data of "national real estate development investment and sales from January to November 2020". According to the data, in the first 11 months of this year, the sales area of commercial housing increased by 1.3% year on year, showing a positive growth for the first time in the year. In the whole year, the sales scale is expected to exceed the level of last year and continue to be at the historical high.

This depends on the rapid recovery of the property market after the epidemic. Since May this year, the monthly sales scale of commercial housing in China has been increasing for seven consecutive months. In November, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide increased by 12.0% year-on-year, while the sales volume increased by 18.6%.

At the same time, the growth rate of investment, financing and other related indicators is also expanding, indicating that the overall recovery trend of the property market is better.

For a long time, it has been expected to stimulate economic growth by loosening the regulation of the property market. However, the macroeconomic data released on the same day showed a strong economic recovery and low inflation pressure. Analysts believe that comprehensive consideration of various conditions, the possibility of relaxation of property market regulation is extremely low.

Sales price of commercial housing rises steadily

Affected by the new crown epidemic, from January to February this year, the scale of commercial housing sales in China once declined by nearly 40%. From the second quarter, with the gradual control of the epidemic situation and the implementation of loose monetary policy, the real estate market gradually recovered.

By August this year, the cumulative sales of commercial housing in China exceeded the same period last year for the first time. In November, the cumulative sales of commercial housing and sales area of two indicators were finally both positive growth. Among them, the sales area of commercial housing was 1508.34 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%; the sales volume of commercial housing was 14.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%.

There are two main reasons for the rapid rise in sales. According to Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, the rapid warming of the early market is mainly due to the concentrated release of demand suppressed by the epidemic situation. Among them, the loose monetary environment stimulates the process of demand release.

In August this year, the Prudential Management Policy of real estate finance represented by the "three red lines" began to be launched. Out of the goal of deleveraging, many real estate enterprises choose to stimulate sales in the way of making profits, which has also become a stimulating factor in the property market in recent months.

Among them, in September this year, the national commercial housing sales area reached 185 million square meters, with sales of 1.87 trillion yuan, becoming the best "golden nine" in history.

Driven by sales, from January to November this year, the national real estate development investment reached 12949.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, 0.5 percentage points higher than that of January October. Compared with infrastructure and manufacturing, real estate investment is the fastest growing of the three categories, and it also contributes the most to fixed asset investment.

Over the same period, real estate development enterprises put in place 17109.9 billion yuan, up 6.6% year on year. After the market continues to heat up, the index has been close to the 7.0% growth rate in the same period last year.

It is worth noting that the rapid rise in sales is achieved on the premise that the price remains stable.

According to the statistics of the shell Research Institute, since July, a total of 74 regions in China have launched 141 real estate related policies, focusing on controlling overheating and cracking down on investment demand. Combined with the influence of the "three red lines" on the strategy of real estate enterprises, the sales price of commercial housing rose for a time and then fell back.

Pan Hao, a senior analyst at Shell Research Institute, told the 21st century economic report that the unit price of national commercial housing sales dropped for three consecutive months after breaking through 10000 yuan in July and reaching the highest value in August. By November this year, the average selling price of commercial housing is 9865 yuan / square meter.

Policy emphasis on "stable and healthy"

Looking forward to December, promoting sales will still be the main theme of real estate enterprises. Shanghai E-House real estate research institute points out that among the 36 large-scale real estate enterprises that have set performance targets, by the end of November, more than 60% of the real estate enterprises have achieved the target completion rate of more than 90%, but at the same time, nearly 30% of the real estate enterprises have achieved the target completion rate between 85% and 90%, and the target completion rate of five other real estate enterprises is less than 85%.

The agency expects more real estate companies to promote sales in the last month of this year. This year, the sales area of commercial housing in China will increase by about 2.5% year on year.

At the policy level, most institutions expect that "tightening" and "maintaining stability" will remain the main theme.

Since the second half of this year, the property market regulation policies have been intensively introduced. In November, the specification of regulation and control was raised again, and the objectives of "housing without speculation" and "stable and healthy development" were mentioned many times.

The proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on formulating the 14th five year plan for national economic and social development and the long-term goals for the year 2035, which was issued on November 4, pointed out that we should adhere to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation. We should promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market by combining rent and purchase with urban policies. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on December 11 said that we should promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.

Pan Hao pointed out that in addition to the special regulatory policies in the real estate field, the short-term trend of the real estate market is closely related to the financial and monetary environment. This year's monetary policy is generally "loose before and stable after", which is basically consistent with the overall performance of the real estate market.

He said that monetary policy mainly depends on economic growth and inflation. According to the recently released macroeconomic data, the PMI of the manufacturing industry has been above the critical point for nine consecutive months, which is the highest point in the year. From January to November, the service industry production index fell by 0.7% year-on-year, and the decline rate has been narrowing, and it is expected to return to positive this year.

In terms of inflation, in November, the core CPI rose by 0.5% after deducting food and energy prices, which is still a moderate inflation level. "Such an inflation level will not directly lead to the adjustment of monetary policy."

Pan Hao believes that the current economic growth recovery is strong, inflation pressure is not big, next year's monetary policy will remain neutral, and there is room for moderate easing.

At the same time, considering the good momentum of real estate investment and sales, it is expected that the real estate policy will be relaxed next year. On the basis of maintaining a stable policy, real estate enterprises will continue to promote the process of reducing leverage.