30 Top Securities Companies Monitor The General Trend Of A-Shares In 2021: Optimists Look At 4800 Points In The Shanghai Index, Neutrals Remain Calm, Cautious Only Look At Half A Year, Where Are Gold Stocks Hidden Next Year?

In 2020, the A-share market has ups and downs. Affected by multiple factors such as the new crown epidemic, the global central bank easing, Sino US friction and other factors, A-share staged a structural market, institutional funds continued to gather, consumption, science and technology, medicine Troika fly together, leading stocks showed multiple growth.

At the end of the year, how to look at the trend of A-share in 2021 has become the focus of the market. Up to now, 30 securities companies such as Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, CICC, Shenwan Hongyuan, and CSCI have issued annual strategy reports.

Most securities companies expect that with the advent of the new crown vaccine, the global economy will recover in 2021, and the first half of the year will usher in a phased profit peak. At the same time, the 14th five year plan is the biggest theme opportunity for next year. In terms of allocation direction, science and technology and consumption are still expected to become the main line in the medium and long term. In addition, the pro cyclical plate also has considerable allocation value.

However, for the expected point, investment strategy, configuration of the main line, and so on, the securities companies also have unique views and obvious differences.

The market trend is always unpredictable, full of uncertainty, how to improve their own income in the uncertainty? Therefore, the 21st century economic reporter collates the overall strategies of 30 securities companies on the A-share market next year, and makes corresponding interpretation, so as to facilitate investors to better grasp the A-share investment opportunities.

In 2020, the A-share market has ups and downs. -Photo by Gan Jun

Optimists: Shanghai index up to 4800

As one of the earliest securities companies calling for "bull" in 2020, Haitong Securities is still firmly optimistic about the A-share market in 2021. Its view is that under the background of industrial structure upgrading and financing structure transformation, China's equity investment and financing era has begun. Learning from the experience of American stocks around the 1980s, A-share is expected to usher in long bull in the future. Second, this round of bull market gradually entered a climax. China is just like the United States in those years, and is also in the period of industrial structure transformation. In the future, A-share is expected to usher in a long-term equity era. And next year, the micro liquidity is still abundant, and the annual net capital inflow will be more than 2 trillion yuan.

Haitong Securities Firm to see more teammates, as well as Northeast Securities and YueKai securities. Northeast Securities in the 21st century economic report statistics of the securities business strategy report, shouting 4800 points of the highest Shanghai index. The reason for this is that the decline in global yield has made long-term capital inflow both inside and outside the country. It is expected that the bull market will enter the early stage of the second stage of the bull market next year. Looking forward to 2021, the slow bull market may continue, and the relatively certain macroeconomic and corporate profit recovery will become the main forces supporting the market next year.

YueKai securities is also optimistic, and the Shanghai index is expected to reach 4300. Specific to the analysis logic, driven by the global economic recovery and the policy dividend in the opening year of the "14th five year plan" in China next year, the growth momentum of A-share is expected to continue under the condition of superimposing the industry performance growth endorsement with low base and high growth after epidemic control. There are three expected areas for the Shanghai stock index to run high: the first resistance area is at 3700 points; the second resistance area is the Shanghai Composite Index 4000 point area; the third expected point is about 4300 points.

Huatai Securities, Societe Generale Securities, Huaxi Securities, BOC securities, Southwest Securities and Dongxing securities are also optimistic. They also put forward a variety of bull market views, such as bull back trading, Chinese capital market enjoying long bull, circular bull, China bull, the third year of bull market.

Based on the position judgment of long, medium and short economic cycles and the prediction of A-share earnings, valuation and supply and demand, Huatai Securities still has a "bull's back" in 2021, and the top-down investment main line is global re inflation and the recovery of manufacturing investment cycle.

Societe Generale Securities believes that four factors boost the A-share "bull": first, institutional factors, the continuous improvement of the basic system of the capital market, the full registration system is about to be implemented, and the delisting system is expected to be introduced; second, regulatory factors, the capital market has entered the era of strict supervision; third, the company factor, high-quality core assets have won, and more and more good enterprises have landed in the capital market; fourth, investment The structure of investors is gradually optimized and retail investors are removed.

It is expected that the stock index of China West Stock Exchange (CSI) will be driven by many factors, such as the performance of the listed companies in 2020-3200.

BOC securities judges that in 2021, A-share will benefit from the virtual economic prosperity under the "dual cycle" system. Short cycle profit driven and overseas capital inflow are expected to lead A-share into a technical bull market. In terms of style, "circular bull" brings about RMB asset revaluation effect, undervalued financial cycle rises, and leading premium is obvious.

Zhu bin, chief analyst of Southwest Securities strategy research, clearly said that in 2021, A-share was a unique "Chinese bull", the economy recovered ahead of the global recovery, and the market continued to be a technology bull.

Dongxing securities' point of view is that the bull market has entered the third year, the elasticity of profit improvement in 2021 is unprecedented, the liquidity of the stock market is maintained at an adequate level, and the incremental capital flows into the boom track. After the outbreak, the advantage of the industry leader has been enlarged again, and the gap between the first and the second place in the industry is widening, but the valuation premium of the industry leader has not been fully revealed.

Neutral: return will be significantly lower than 2020

In the favorable environment of A-share market in 2021, many securities companies, such as China Merchants Securities, China Securities construction investment, CICC, Shenwan Hongyuan and Guangfa Securities, remained calm and believed that the expected yield should be reduced in 2021.

China Merchants Securities believes that in 2021, China's credit cycle will enter a downward cycle, and interest rates will rise to a high level, forming a tight financial environment; the economy, inflation and corporate profits will accelerate to an inflection point in the second quarter; after the stock market enters the policy dividend period, the marginal relationship between supply and demand in the stock market will deteriorate. The overall return of a shares will be significantly lower than that before 2020.

Zhang Yulong, chief strategic analyst of China Securities construction investment, believes that the driving force of the market's upward trend next year will mainly come from economic recovery. The most important market situation is expected to be in the first quarter. It is expected that the overall income level of the market in 2021 will be significantly lower than that in 2019 and 2020.

CICC holds a relatively neutral view on the trend of the A-share market index next year. It is crucial to grasp the phased and structural opportunities according to the impact of the epidemic, growth and policy rhythm. From the perspective of stage, the deepening of recovery is still the main line of transaction from now to the future. When the expected recovery response is more adequate and the policy exit is more clear, the overall performance of the market index may begin to be suppressed. It is estimated that this time point may be in the first half of next year.

Shen wanhongyuan predicts that 2021 will be a small year for the A-share market, and the market may be in a weak position in most of the time from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2021. Therefore, the total opportunity in 2021 needs to be precisely timed, and the end of the year and the beginning of the year is the first window that may effectively rebound.

Guangfa Securities strategy daikang team believes that the key word of 2021 A-share is sailing against the current. In 2021, China's financial conditions will gradually tighten, the team judged that a shares ushered in a slow bull in the shock period, the need to reduce the expected yield.

Cautious: only forecast half year trend

Huang Yanming, director of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, mentioned that although it is an annual strategy meeting, it can only predict the stock market for six months. If you want to predict the stock market in the second half of the year, you can only predict people's expectations six months later.

Looking forward to 2021, the epidemic situation, China and the United States and other risk factors will gradually fall into place, and the global economic recovery will gradually dawn, but the liquidity tide will subside. However, it is expected that the momentum of economic growth in the first half of 2020 will be further strengthened by the expected economic growth momentum of 3500-3100 in the first half of 2020.

Dongguan securities also issued a half year strategy report. For the first half of 2021, it remains cautious and optimistic. In 2021, the domestic and foreign economy is expected to recover steadily, and the fundamental factors will continue to improve. The "recommendations" of the 14th five year plan and the two sessions of the NPC and CPPCC will keep positive. The deepening of the reform of the capital market will inject new impetus into the healthy development of the market. The guidance of medium and long-term funds and the transfer of residents' wealth will bring financial support to the market. However, the monetary policy will return to neutrality, and the capital will be affected Under the influence of factors such as financing and non holding reduction, it will maintain a tight balance and it is difficult to form obvious financial support for the market.

There are still opportunities for the market to strengthen at the beginning of 2021. However, with the gradual return of monetary policy to normal and the increasing financing pressure, the market will face repeated pressure of high volatility. It is expected that the market will send warmth to the Soviet Union and forge ahead in the first half of 2021, presenting a pattern of high shock.

Consumption, technology, cycle, finance or manufacturing?

On the whole, the views of various securities companies on the main line of 2021 market focus on several sectors, with consumption, technology, cycle, finance and manufacturing being named in turn.

Looking forward to 2021, Haitong Securities will place science and technology in the first echelon of investment: in 2021, the profits of science and technology industries will increase rapidly, which is due to the policy dividend and technology dividend. In the future, there is a huge space for the development of computer, media, new energy industry chain and other industries. In addition, we should pay attention to securities companies. In the short run, the increase of three waves of bull market will boost the performance of securities companies.

Southwest Securities also believes that science and technology is the leader and the main line. In 2021, a shares focus on high-end manufacturing, new energy (and new energy vehicles), technology infrastructure and other sectors that benefit from the recommendations of the 14th five year plan and the upward cycle of the industry. At the same time, we should pay proper attention to business, tourism, film and television sectors that have benefited from the recovery of the industry.

In addition to technology, the key words that frequently appear in strategy reports are consumption and finance.

CICC indicated that it was optimistic about the industries in which the valuation was still low and the degree of prosperity might be further improved; some advanced manufacturing industries whose prosperity was improving; and some cyclical sectors with low valuation and expected improvement.

Guotai Junan judges that the main line of the market has changed from infrastructure real estate cycle to global raw material cycle, from compulsory consumption to optional consumption, and science and technology needs to focus on new energy and electronics.

Dongxing securities takes financial stocks as the bottom position, and focuses on banks and insurance under the condition that the economic recovery, profit improvement and valuation are expected to be restored.

Many securities companies believe that under the expectation of economic recovery, the cyclical plate still has configuration value.

According to Qin Peijing, chief strategic analyst of CITIC Securities, A-share is still in the medium-term upward channel, and it is expected that A-share will experience a "trilogy" of slow growth next year, including the allocation of Pro cyclical varieties from the cross-year to the second quarter of next year, including optional consumption and industrial sectors; from the middle to the third quarter of the second quarter of next year, it is suggested to increase the allocation of large-scale finance and compulsory consumption; from the fourth quarter of next year, science and technology will start The relative configuration value of plate and medicine will be improved.

Founder Securities pointed out that in 2021, there will be opportunities for improvement in Pro cyclical alternative consumption, midstream cycle and strong cycle. We can pay attention to two clues of traditional economic cycle and digital economic cycle.

There are also many securities companies simply "kill all in one net". The industry allocation of Guojin securities in 2021 includes: first, undervalued Finance: insurance, banking, etc. Second, durable consumer goods: automobiles, household appliances, furniture, consumer building materials, etc. Third, the main line of price increase: nonferrous metals, chemical industry, etc. Fourth, the dilemma reversal: aviation, airport, hotel, etc. Fifth, the initial stage of growth: 5g, AI, etc.

Can't ignore the risk factors, watershed in the second quarter?

It is also worth noting that the risk of investment in 2021 should be noted.

China Merchants Securities reminds us that we must be wary of the risks of economic improvement, normalization of monetary policy after rising inflation, reversal of credit environment caused by deterioration of credit environment brought by the peak of credit maturity and the last year of the transition period of new asset management regulations, and the risk of negative growth of the new social and financial year.

Founder Securities believes that as the economy gradually returns to the potential growth level, the counter cyclical adjustment policy framework evolves into cross cycle adjustment, the probability of the aggregate policy continuing to relax in 2021 is small, and the space for further improvement of valuation is limited. From the perspective of market rhythm, the probability of n-type trend is relatively large. Before the first quarter of next year, it is mainly to find opportunities. At the turn of the first and second quarter, there is pressure to adjust the market.

Pacific Securities judged that the first half of 2021 will usher in a phased profit peak. The normalization of domestic and foreign currencies is difficult to support the substantial increase of market valuation. Performance growth is needed to digest the valuation. Whether the performance can be realized will determine the trend and the market volatility will be enlarged.

Most institutions also believe that in the second and third quarters, with the possible tightening of global liquidity, and at the same time, the superimposed market has more sufficient expectations for economic recovery, and the overall performance of a shares may be close to the peak, leading to a certain adjustment pressure on the trend of a shares. During this period, we should pay special attention to whether the performance growth can absorb the negative impact of valuation.