The First Half Of 2020

Looking back six months ago, the emergence of the new crown epidemic made all Chinese people spend an unprecedented Spring Festival in fear.

On February 1, Xibei Jia Guolong's statement that he wanted to cry without tears meant that the whole retail industry would enter into Purgatory mode this year.

In the article "the month of China's retail industry suspension" published on February 11, the author once believed that: 1. As the largest athlete in China's market competition, the Chinese government has a strong economic leading role. Second, China's huge organizational capacity and huge economic volume. These factors will help China quickly control the epidemic and guide the economy out of the trough.

According to media reports, China's economy in the second quarter became the only "positive growth" among the world's major economies in the context of the spread of the global new crown epidemic, which has injected confidence into the declining global economy.

In the first half of the year, China's economy grew by 1.6% year-on-year, but in the second quarter, it grew by 3.2%, far better than expected. In June, the total import and export volume increased by 5.1% year-on-year, which was the first time in the year that imports and exports grew synchronously and positively. The recovery growth of these major indicators once again shows the great resilience and room for maneuver of China's economy.

For retail, compared with other industries, the impact of the epidemic may be the most damaging. Half a year has passed. If we look back on the operation of the whole retail industry in the first half of this year, I think many people may agree that we are still in the storm.

　　 Post epidemic Era

The new outbreak may become a long-standing virus for people all over the world.

The center for infectious diseases and policy research at the University of Minnesota in the United States has published a report, based on the model of 1918 Spanish influenza, and calculated that the current epidemic situation will last 18-24 months. OST Holm, a researcher at the center, told a conference that the virus will continue until it can infect everyone.

It only slows down when 60% - 70% of the population is infected. This number can improve people's immunity and prevent the spread of the virus.

Soumya, the World Health Organization's chief scientist, estimates that it will take the world four to five years to control the spread of the epidemic. When more than 90% of the world's areas are under control of the epidemic, the form of its existence may be local sporadic outbreaks, causing the local government to take prompt action to close the relevant infection gathering points.

For the retail industry as a whole, the change is obvious.

First, for the closed consumption space, people's psychology will imperceptibly become cautious and careful. Under such psychological hints, retaliatory consumption will not appear, but people's pain caused by the epidemic will form invisible scars, firmly imprinted in the depth of potential memory.

Second, it will be more and more important for the whole society to be cautious. Slowly, the mobile end orders, fast distribution needs to become any kind of retail business "standard configuration business".

Third, the retail business model presents a more detailed division of fission. For example, more and more catering enterprises have opened up takeout business. From meituan to Jingdong, the city wide instant delivery service of fast moving consumer goods has been accelerated. For example, send vegetables, send a bag of biscuits, send a toothpaste, or pick it up at the appointed place.

Fourth, the identities of the buyer and the seller are increasingly blurred. Whether traditional retail or e-commerce, they all find that letting more users help sell products is a huge "long tail". Recommendation, group or micro business drainage mode is quietly forming another sales channel.

　　 The fission and division of giants

Alibaba's position as the leader of e-commerce is being encircled and challenged by more and more latecomers.

Jingdong's market tentacles continue to sink, which will change the life of traditional community convenience stores. From the offline Jingdong store to the online Jingdong home, we even invested in several wechat platforms. Jingdong's playing methods are constantly fission and differentiation.

In addition to Jingdong, Tencent is speeding up the layout of e-commerce. On June 10, Tencent launched a tweet called "QQ preferential purchase, invite you to test internally", introducing three new functions of "QQ preferential purchase", "QQ group window" and "live shopping" for users of internal test. In May this year, Tencent launched the "geese competition" based on wechat ecology. On June 15, the "geese spelling" applet launched the "group store" function. As long as users share "group stores" in wechat group, after group friends click on the link, they can open group stores, and users who share links automatically become group owners.

This year, Xiaomi significantly strengthened the pace of expansion of new retail. In July, Xiaomi Youpin established a new company and Youyu Information Technology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 50 million yuan. Wang Chuan, the co-founder of Xiaomi, was the legal representative. The company was wholly owned by YOUPIN Information Technology Co., Ltd., and Lei Jun was the largest shareholder of the latter.

The company's scope of business includes: R & D of agricultural products, electronic products, electronic products, electronic products, electronic products, electronic products, electronic products, electronic products, electronic products, etc.

Does this mean that Xiaomi Youpin wants to start the R & D and sales of its own brand products in the above related categories?

Since then, more actions have been taken by meituan.

In June this year, meituan set up an independent department for community e-commerce business and launched "meituan preferred service". Several times, rumors of making independent app for community e-commerce appeared to be attached great importance.

Compared with small and medium-sized platforms, meituan (1) has sufficient financial support to meet the needs of supply chain construction; 2) it has rider resources rooted in the "community", with low unit price of delivering passengers in the same city, and high integration of local businesses. If we do community e-commerce, we can not only make profits by Invigorating the local economy, but also further expand the boundary of meituan.

In April, meituan released the fourth quarter and annual financial report of 2019. According to the data, the revenue of meituan reached 97.5 billion yuan, up 49.5% year on year, and the adjusted net profit reached 4.7 billion yuan. In addition, in the fourth quarter of 2019, meituan's revenue was 28.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.2%, and the adjusted net profit was 2.27 billion yuan.

In terms of annual revenue, the revenue contribution of catering delivery business to stores, hotels and tourism businesses, and new businesses including b-end supply chain solutions, bike sharing and online car Hailing accounted for about 54.8 billion yuan, 22.3 billion yuan and 20.4 billion yuan respectively.

In the first ten days of June, byte hop just completed a round of organizational structure adjustment for e-commerce business. A first-class business department named after "e-commerce" was formally established to coordinate the e-commerce business operation of the company's Twitter, today's headlines, watermelon video and other content platforms.

Byte beat "commercialization" department is mainly for the needs of brands, merchants and authors. It is responsible for the commercial realization, which can generate income for the company and also feed back the content ecology. "E-commerce" has clearly become a strategic business with byte skipping, and tremolo is the core platform for implementing this strategic business. In 2019, the revenue scale of byte jump will reach 140 billion yuan, of which the advertising revenue ratio is as high as 90%. It is generally believed that e-commerce business is likely to become the "second curve" of byte jump revenue growth.

　　 Traditional retail enterprises are half sea water and half flame

The traditional offline retail enterprises are not only suffering from the epidemic, but also thinking and transformation.

Worldwide, the test may have just begun.

INDITEX, the parent company of Zara, said it would close 1200 stores worldwide in the next two years. According to INDITEX's financial report for the first quarter of 2020, 88% of its stores were forced to close during the epidemic period, and global sales fell by 44% year-on-year, resulting in serious losses.

Nike recently released its fourth quarter performance in fiscal year 2020, with revenue of $37.403 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. As of the end of May, in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2020, Nike's operating revenue reached $6.313 billion, lower than the expected $7.38 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 38.14%, and a quarterly net loss of $790 million (about RMB 5.6 billion), a year-on-year decrease of 179.88%. With a huge loss of 5.6 billion yuan, the market value of Nike has shrunk. Three Hailan homes are in charge. The person in charge claims to the employees that the layoff is coming.

In the UK, in addition to Wimbley, there are also established department store retailer Debenhams, UK famous brand Kath Kidston and online men's clothing retailer TM Lewin, which have all declared bankruptcy in recent months.

Japan's Ryuko project announced that under the impact of the new crown epidemic, its performance deteriorated sharply, and its U.S. subsidiary had a debt of $64 million, and had applied to the U.S. court for bankruptcy protection.

UNIQLO's parent company, Japan's fast retailing group, recently released a financial report showing that, affected by the epidemic, the company's net loss reached 9.82 billion yen in the third fiscal quarter at the end of May, and the business revenue and profits of UNIQLO in all major overseas markets fell sharply.

Analysts believe that at this stage, if the United States, which has a serious epidemic situation, cannot control it quickly, it may become more serious in September and October.

In China, traditional retail enterprises are accelerating the transformation.

On the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival, the founder of Gome, Huang Guangyu, was officially released from prison. Before his release, Gome and Jingdong and pinduoduo reached cooperation respectively. This is interpreted as preparation for Huang's release from prison, and is also regarded as one of Gome's strategic layout for accelerating the online transformation.

Under the pressure of the epidemic situation, home retail giant red star Macalline has opened a new business model. In February, Kailong started to upgrade its business. Red Star Macalline plans to get more high-quality customers from home to home decoration, and realize the integration of home decoration and home furnishing.

In terms of digital marketing, red star Macalline has also launched a long-term in-depth transformation, online drainage and offline transformation, and offline consumption has left all traces of data online. In addition, digital community marketing has become a new tool.

618 promotion has become a key battle to test whether online e-commerce or offline physical retail have the ability of two wheel drive in this special environment.

Suning's performance highlights a lot, which is inseparable from its years of online and offline layout. During 618, Suning made full use of Suning e-shopping Plaza, Suning Plaza, Suning small stores, Suning e-shopping Direct stores, Suning e-shopping cloud stores and other business models to break the boundaries of online and offline, and quickly carried out the layout of Internet stores across the country.

　　 Take off the clothes of live broadcast with goods: from Luo Yonghao to Wu Xiaobo

From Gree to Haier, from Golden Eagle department store to Yintai, both manufacturing and retail terminals regard live broadcasting as an important entrance to obtain traffic during the epidemic.

On February 18, Yintai department store joined hands with Taobao to open a special live broadcast for 10 Hubei shopping guides. The whole live broadcast lasted three hours, and the number of viewers reached 75000, equivalent to the weekend passenger flow of a senior shopping center. In addition, Chen Xiaodong, CEO of Yintai business group, also personally went to live broadcasting, with 220000 people watching in 4 hours.

On February 28, the Golden Eagle Shopping app launched live broadcast for the first time. Without publicity, the number of people watching a single scene reached 14000, and the total sales volume exceeded 100000 yuan.

However, live broadcasting is not suitable for all industries, and not all traffic stars can realize cash flow through live broadcasting. It is estimated that the moisture caused by the live broadcast is too large to be imagined.

According to husniff.com, it's hard to survive without counterfeiting for a company just doing live delivery. " "At the beginning, we spend hundreds of thousands of counterfeit goods, not to deceive people, but the industry needs to have several signboards," which is to "set up a front".

According to the may top 50 of live e-commerce anchor Gmv jointly released by We Media Alliance wemedia and phoenix.com entertainment, the Gmv of Weiya, Li Jiaqi and maomei, who loves food, reached 2.2 billion, 1.903 billion and 464 million respectively in May this year. However, the actual total sales volume was 22.161 million, 1986.65 million and 8.9869 million.

In May, Gmv announced a total of 11 billion yuan, and the actual sales volume was about 130 million yuan, a 100 times difference between the two. And it's just the tip of the iceberg.

In June, Dong Mingzhu's live broadcast became popular, with sales of hundreds of millions. Dong Mingzhu himself said, "live with goods is deception", "I bring not goods but channels.".

The first live broadcast of Luo Yonghao, including Luo Yonghao and Yu Yin, has always been the focus of the broadcast, including Luo Yonghao's 300 million people.

In the end, the peak number of nearly 3 million people watching online at the same time, the turnover of more than 100 million, the overwhelming amount of discussion, Shuo Yin and Luo Yonghao achieved a perfect start.

After 100 days, Luo Yonghao continued to open high and go low, and the monthly Gmv declined one after another, almost cutting back. Until Luo Yonghao was absent from the live broadcast that night because of "sudden physical discomfort", Zhu Xiaomu, his live assistant, was obviously helpless. The number of people online dropped to 50000, and the peak number of people on the audience was 65000, which was nearly 50 times smaller than that of the first broadcast.

Luo Yonghao broadcast 100 days, a total of 14 live broadcast, data continued to dive.

In July, Wu Xiaobo completed his first live show on Taobao's "new domestic products launch". The microblog @ Wu Xiaobo channel publicly disclosed that the live broadcast led to sales of more than 52 million. In terms of this sales volume alone, it is really good in the first show of celebrity live with goods.

However, this data was soon questioned by some media. In the "breaking the Star Live TV bubble: 900000 people watching less than 10 deals, who is" swimming naked "? 》The article points out that the actual transaction volume of Wu Xiaobo's first live show is far less than the optimistic data disclosed by Wu Xiaobo channel, and points out that the pit fee really "pits" the merchants and other problems.

On July 10, the wechat official account of Wu Xiaobo channel released the article "fifteen cans". Wu Xiaobo said: the performance is poor and the trust is not satisfied. This article is a reflection on the resumption of the stock market, and tuition fees can not be paid in vain. In this article, Wu Xiaobo stressed his efforts and efforts before the live broadcast, such as learning from other anchors. He attributed the rollover to his own performance and selection logic.

Wu Xiaobo said that live broadcasting should not only have "extremely low network prices", nor should there be only one or two presentation modes. In the current live broadcasting room, the average unit price of goods with good sales is less than 100 yuan, which belongs to impulse purchase.

Among them, the comments of netizens are fake

When I saw the live broadcast of Li Jiaqi and Weiya, I knew that the core of the live broadcast was "extremely low network price". Because only low-income people will have the time and time to watch the live broadcast, high-income people will not spend several hours watching the live broadcast for a thing.

　　 Retailers riding the storm

Undoubtedly, 2020 is a very difficult year, not only for China, but also for the whole world, not only for the retail industry, but also for the entire economic system.

After thousands of years, the retail industry has been suffering for thousands of years, but it has been a new one. In the chain of the whole industry and the whole economic body, retail is the nerve of the end and the skin of perception. Only retail can realize the "thrilling jump" of thousands of commodities.

Although the haze may be the same as the normal state of life, it can even become a new life for everyone.

Fortune is the place where misfortune lies, and vice versa. Retail and change the future with diligence, to create a world of change.