Auto Production And Sales Rebounded In April: New Energy Market Reshuffle

The car market has finally seen a rebound in the market, but the independent brand is facing the test, and the new energy vehicle has not yet come out of the trough.

The Chinese car market, which has been falling for 21 months for a long time, is finally looking forward to the market rebound.

In May 11th, the China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association") released monthly automobile production and sales data. In April this year, China's automobile production and sales reached 2 million 102 thousand vehicles and 2 million 70 thousand vehicles respectively, an increase of 46.6% and 43.5% compared to the same period, an increase of 2.3% and 4.4% over the same period last year. This is China's auto sales, the first time since July 2018 to achieve positive growth.

The industry expects early recovery in April. On the one hand, automobile consumption was gradually released in the first quarter because of the epidemic situation. On the other hand, in April of last year, the market base was lower because of the six emission standards in some countries.

At present, the recovery of car market in April has benefited from the strong rebound of commercial vehicles. In April, the sales volume of commercial vehicles increased by 31.3% to 514 thousand compared to the same period last year. In terms of passenger cars, despite the narrowing of production and sales in April, production and sales of 1 million 587 thousand vehicles and 1 million 536 thousand vehicles were realized in the same month, down 4.6% and 2.6% compared to the same period last year. However, a large part of the sales came from the delayed consumption of those who planned to buy cars in February and March. The impact of the epidemic on the income expectation of residents and the decline of purchasing power will still have great impact on the private car market.

"There is obvious" retaliatory consumption "in April, especially when there is a replenishment at wholesale end. We feel that the market will continue to rebound in five or six months. But the strength of the rebound is hard to judge and needs further observation. On May 11th, Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Automotive Association, told reporters on twenty-first Century economic report.

For the trend of the whole year's auto market, China Automobile Association also gave the latest forecast: optimistic estimate, if the domestic and overseas epidemic situation is effectively controlled, China's auto sales will drop 15% throughout the year; pessimistic estimates, if the overseas epidemic continues to spread, the annual sales volume of the automobile will decline by 25%.

China Automobile Association said that the above prediction was made for three main reasons: the epidemic caused domestic related industries to be blocked, and the income of employees declined, thereby affecting automobile consumption; foreign epidemic situation affected China's export-oriented economy, which led to the damage of domestic related groups' income, and then affected the consumption of motor vehicles.

The biggest problem facing car companies is whether the gradual improvement of the market can bridge the gap in the first quarter.

Although the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled, the change brought by the new crown disease to the entire Chinese automobile market has gradually emerged. In order to stabilize market share, different car companies vigorously launched price promotions, and price war became more intense. The market is more inclined to head enterprises, and independent brands are facing greater market challenges.

Gradual recovery of market and aggravation of enterprise differentiation

With the gradual improvement of the domestic anti epidemic situation, the production and operation of vehicle enterprises has basically recovered, and the output has reached the level of the same period last year. China Automotive Association said that as of May 11th, the survey of 23 vehicle companies total 204 production bases, in addition to SAIC's factory in Xinjiang did not return to work, the other have resumed work.

The overall motor vehicle market has gradually recovered. On the one hand, it has benefited from the good situation of the epidemic prevention and the related consumption promotion policies; on the other hand, it is driven by the replenishment of enterprises, and so far, the inventory level of the industry enterprises is basically normal.

In May 11th, the twenty-first Century economic report reporters interviewed many car dealers in Beijing, Chengdu and Suzhou.

"Since April, the number of customers coming to the shops has increased significantly. During the May 1st period, the number of people in the shops is almost the same as last year." In May 11th, a FAW Volkswagen 4S shop in Beijing told sales reporters in twenty-first Century.

A senior dealer group selling many brands of cars in East China told reporters in twenty-first Century that overall sales of Mercedes Benz, BMW and other luxury brands were faster and prices were more stable. The competition of independent brands is fierce, and the profit margins are very low.

However, the above dealers do not expect high sales for the whole year. "Now basically digested the original plan to buy a car volume, it is not clear how many increments will follow. Although we have given enough preferential treatment now, the impact of the epidemic on the economy is very direct, especially for the middle and low income groups, and the purchasing power in the short term is definitely going down.

The internal differentiation of the industry is becoming more apparent.

Chinese brand passenger cars are facing greater market pressure, which is higher than the overall market level. In April this year, China's brand passenger cars sold 532 thousand vehicles, down 9.4% compared to the same period last year. The market share is only 34.6%, which is the lowest level since July 2014.

However, Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of China Automotive Industry Association, believes that only from the decline of the market share in 1 months, the market competitiveness of Chinese brand passenger cars can not be judged as inferior to that of the joint venture brands. It is also necessary to see whether the market share of Chinese brands can rise in the next few months.

Of course, there are obvious differences in the performance of each enterprise within its own brand. Among them, Geely, the Great Wall, Changan and other head brand sales in April have basically returned to normal level, squeezed into the top ten sales. The sales volume of the second tier SAIC passenger cars and Guangzhou passenger cars decreased by 26% and 17% respectively in April compared with the same period last year. Hippocampus, Zhongtai, Li Fan and other edge independent brands, sales in April fell by more than 50%.

"A large part of the sales of passenger cars in April was released from the purchasing power that was suppressed in 2 and March. At present, the purchasing power of luxury cars and joint venture brands has been released more. Xu Haidong told reporters on twenty-first Century economic report.

Specifically, the German and Japanese market share continued to rise, including FAW Volkswagen, FAW TOYOTA, Guangzhou TOYOTA and other enterprises in April sales, has achieved positive growth. The market share of the US, the legal system and the Korean Department declined.

The sales volume of Volkswagen Group (China) surpassed that of the same period last year. If we maintain the current recovery trend, we can cautiously and positively predict that the annual results will not be much bigger than those at the beginning of the year. Volkswagen Group (China) CEO Feng Si Han issued a social media in May 6th.

He believes that the crisis will lead to a reshuffle of the market, even in China's huge volume market, the more than 100 car brands are also too crowded. The outbreak of the epidemic has accelerated market integration more or less. This will help the whole market develop towards higher technology standards and better customer service.

New energy market reshuffle

Although the car market has shown signs of warming, new energy vehicles have not yet come out of the trough.

In April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 80 thousand and 72 thousand respectively, down 22.1% and 26.5% respectively from the same period last year. In 1-4 months, the sales and sales of new energy vehicles were 205 thousand, down 44.8% and 43.4% respectively.

Although the relevant departments have issued relevant policies to explicitly extend the new energy vehicle financial subsidies and purchase tax relief policies to 2022, however, this year's development of new energy vehicle market is still facing great challenges.

In the second half of last year, China's new energy vehicle market was slowing down because of the steep decline in subsidies. Previously, the industry expects that Tesla Model 3 will bring "catfish" effect to the industry, thus promoting the expansion of China's new energy vehicle market in the stage of subsidy exit.

It is worth noting that, due to the continuous efforts of foreign brands in the new energy field, the advantage of the domestic brands in the new energy market is weakening. From the market share, the data of the Federation show that the share of new energy vehicles in the first quarter was 72.5%, and the market share fell below 90% for the first time in three years.

It is worth noting that in the new energy vehicle market, the middle and high-end market is also faster than the middle and low end market.

According to the data released by the Federation, Tesla produced more than 10 thousand cars in April, and sold 3635 Model 3. In the first 4 months of this year, Tesla sold 19705 Model 3 cars.

Previously, sales of new energy two enterprises in China declined significantly. In April, BYD sold 13 thousand new energy vehicles, down 45.88% compared to the same period last year. In April, 35 thousand new energy vehicles were sold, down 63.79% year-on-year. Beiqi new energy sales in April only 586, down 88.3% compared to the same period; in April, the total sales volume was 9586, down 68.13% compared to the same period.

However, the sales volume of several new vehicles for head making is increasing and further expanding their market share. The data released by Wei Lai showed that the total delivery volume reached 3155 units in 24 months, an increase of 180.7% over the same period, and the total delivery volume reached 6993 units in April. The delivery volume of Xiaopeng and Verma motors in April was 2200 vehicles and 1388 vehicles respectively.

It can be seen that in the field of new energy vehicles, especially in the private car market, the overall trend towards high-end development. Coupled with the launch of pure electric vehicle models by multinational car companies such as Volkswagen and TOYOTA, China's new energy vehicle market has been maintaining the "North South dispute" pattern of BYD and Beiqi new energy for many years, and the market structure will be rearranged.

However, the annual new energy vehicle market is still likely to continue to slide. In the second half of this year, car companies will still face enormous challenges.

"At the beginning of the year, we expect to be almost 1 million 200 thousand cars last year. If we add Tesla, this year, we will be able to sell about 1 million 300 thousand new energy vehicles. But by the impact of the epidemic, this year can be more than 1 million vehicles (excluding Tesla), it is already good. Xu Haidong finally said. (Editor: Zhang Ruosi)