Review Of Lint Price Trend In March: Down To One Word

According to business statistics, as of March 31st, the average price of the domestic lint spot market was 11105 yuan / ton, down 15.32% from the beginning of the month, down 28.93% from the same period last year, and the lowest price since 2011. Domestic cotton prices are now new low, the market tried to rebound, but the development of the US epidemic is not optimistic, ICE cotton was frustrated, the main force entered the 40 cent stage. Cotton prices are low, and the epidemic affects market sentiment.

Futures, as of 31 days, zhengmian 2005 contract in March fell 1805 yuan / ton, or 14.60%, during the multiple limit. As can be seen from the current plan, the recent trend of contract and spot is basically the same, and the current price difference between the 3 and the second half of the month tends to be stable. There were signs of recovery during the 10 and 26 days. The former is the boost of US financial measures and the stock market's rebound. On the 26 day, the price department of the national development and Reform Commission announced that the target price level of Xinjiang cotton in 2020 was 18600 yuan per ton, which was a tentative rebound, but it was a flash in the pan and a new low on the 31 day. Under the influence of the global spread of the epidemic, the market is generally empty and the textile industry chain is deeply affected. The epidemic in the United States is not optimistic. The ICE cotton contract in May fell 60 cents on 12 days and fell 50 cents in April 1st. Good stimulus appears weak in the face of the epidemic.

From the main base rate, the spot price is closing to the price of cotton futures, and the base rate has narrowed to 1.24% at the end of March. But the main contract changed on the 31 day, from the original 2005 contract to 2009 contract, so there was a cliff fall. If we continue to use 05 contracts to calculate, the base rate of 31 days is 4.91%, the previous day is 8.59%, the same decline is also significant. Zheng cotton is now at a level of 10000 to 11000 yuan / ton, and the ICE cotton contract in May has fallen below 50 cents, which is equivalent to RMB and plus tariff factors. It has already fallen below the 10000 yuan mark, and the domestic cotton market is hard to be independent.

Business analysts believe that, due to the spread of the epidemic in some parts of the country, the production and consumption sectors are in a state of depression, and there is a further deepening risk. Orders and transactions have been reduced, and cotton prices have been consolidated at a low level.