Pressure? Interpretation Of The Economic Operation Of The Textile Industry In The First Three Quarters Of 2019

Since 2019, the development environment of China's textile industry at home and abroad has been more severe. The slowdown in market demand and the trade environment risk are intertwined, and the challenges and difficulties have increased significantly. The textile industry insists on deepening the structural reform of the supply side, and continues to accelerate the transformation and upgrading. Under the pressure of increased production and business pressure, the resilience of resistance to downside risks continues to show. The boom is still in the expansion area, and the economic situation is basically consistent with the external situation.

Industry boom continues to expand

Production to achieve low speed growth

　　 Since 2019, the boom of the textile industry has continued to expand. According to the survey data of China Textile Industry Federation, the textile industry boom index in the three quarter was 51.9, and it continued to expand at 50 or more, a slight reduction of 0.1 points over the two quarter.

　　 The commencement of textile industry is generally normal, and production keeps low speed and steady growth. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first three quarters of 2019, the utilization rate of textile industry (including spinning, weaving, dyeing and finishing, home textiles, industrial use, etc.) was 78%, 2.6 percentage points slower than that of the same period last year, and the utilization rate of chemical fiber industry was 83.1%, up 1.1 percentage points from the same period last year. The utilization ratio of textile and chemical fiber industry was higher than that of the national industrial 76.2% in the same period. The industrial added value of Enterprises above Designated Size in the textile industry increased by 2.9% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was flat compared with the same period last year, slowing 0.7 percentage points compared with the first half of this year. Industrial chain links, chemical fiber and industrial textile industry production growth is more stable, the first three quarters of industrial added value increased by 12.3% and 7.4%, respectively, higher than the whole industry added value growth 9.4 and 4.5 percentage points.

Internal and external market pressure

Online retail channels grow well.

　　 Since 2019, the growth of China's textile and apparel domestic market has slowed down steadily, while online retailing has maintained a two digit growth rate. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first three quarters, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 3.3% over the same period last year. The growth rate slowed down 5.6 percentage points over the same period last year, but 0.3 percentage points faster than the first half of this year, showing a continuous and slight warming trend. The online retail sales of apparel products nationwide increased by 18.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed down 4.7 and 2.8 percentage points respectively from the same period last year and the first half of this year.

　　 Textile industry export pressure continues to increase. According to customs data, in the first three quarters, China's textile and clothing exports totaled US $208 billion 620 million, down 2.3% from the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed by 7 and 0.3 percentage points respectively over the same period last year and the first half of this year. Among them, textile exports amounted to US $94 billion 300 million, an increase of 0.4% over the same period last year, and clothing exports amounted to US $114 billion 310 million, a decrease of 4.5% over the same period last year. Although Sino US trade friction has not yet had a global impact on the whole industry's economic operation, the impact of US tariff increases on exports has gradually emerged. In the first three quarters, China's exports of textiles and clothing to the United States decreased by 3.3% compared to the same period last year. As a result, the export volume of apparel products, home textiles and other bulk products began to levy 15% import tariffs in September 1st, and China's textile industry lost 18.8% of its exports to the United States this month.

Increasing pressure on benefit growth

Investment scale declined

　 Since 2019, the profit pressure of textile industry has increased, but part of the industrial chain has achieved good results. In the first three quarters, 34 thousand Textile Enterprises above Designated Size achieved operating income of 3 trillion and 715 billion 260 million yuan, an increase of 1.5% over the same period last year, a slowdown of 2.7 percentage points over the same period last year, and a total profit of 156 billion 150 million yuan, down 7.6% from the same period last year. The growth rate was 14.7 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, and the operating income margin was 4.2%, lower than the 0.4 percentage points of the same period last year. In all sub sectors, the total profit of filament, printing and dyeing and knitting industry increased by 7.9%, 4.7% and 3.7%, respectively, higher than that of the whole industry by 15.5, 12.3 and 11.3 percentage points. The profit margins of garments, industrial textiles and textile machinery industry were all at a higher level, 5.2%, 5% and 6.8%, respectively, which were basically the same as that of the same period last year.

　　 The scale of investment in fixed assets of textile industry has been reduced and regional layout has been adjusted continuously. In the first three quarters, the fixed assets investment in the industry decreased by 7% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate was 12.8 and 5.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year and the first half of this year. In terms of industry, investment in textile, clothing and chemical fiber industries decreased by 8.2%, 2% and 15.4% respectively. From the regional perspective, the eastern provinces of Fujian, Hubei and Hunan in the central part of the two provinces and Chongqing in the West show a positive trend of positive growth in the whole industry chain investment, which is a regional bright spot in the relatively low investment confidence of the whole industry.

The uncertainty of the future will continue.

High quality development tasks urgent

　　 The complexity and uncertainty of the development environment of China's textile industry will continue in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 2020. The slowdown in global economic growth has become a general expectation. It will take a while for China US economic and trade relations to resume stability. The overall export situation of the textile industry is generally not optimistic. But at the present stage, the lack of international market demand and the rising risk of international trade environment have become the influencing factors of normalization. It is an urgent and urgent task for the textile industry to continuously enhance its own development tenacity and tap the potential of domestic demand market.

At present, the Chinese government has put the work of "six stability" in a more prominent position, focusing on steady employment, stable finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment, stable and expected increase in counter cyclical regulation and control, implementation of tax reduction and other series of policy initiatives, and continuous improvement of the business environment. The basic macroeconomic support and strong domestic market of the macro-economy are the primary driving force and key for the future development of the textile industry.

The textile industry will continue to comprehensively implement the nineteen spirit of the party, speed up the development of high quality, strengthen domestic demand and tap the potential, foster effective investment and consumption demand, promote structural adjustment and upgrading of energy supply, further stabilize the competitiveness of the international market, consolidate the foundation of resistance to risks and ensure stable economic operation, and make a due contribution to ensuring the smooth operation of the national economy and building a well-off society in an all-round way in the 2020.