Can The Exchange Of Telephone Weaving Between Chinese And American Heads Of State Take Advantage Of "Salted Fish Turn Over"?

In June 18th, the heads of state of China and the United States exchanged telephone calls. The two sides agreed to meet again during the twenty leaders' summit in Osaka, and to conduct in-depth communication on bilateral relations.

Affected by this, there has been a surge in the global market. The RMB intraday appreciation has risen by 400 basis points, NASDAQ and Dow Jones. A shares etc. index There are varying degrees of increase.

200 billion! From 10% to 25%

Exports to the US declined significantly

In May 10th, the United States raised the tariff of $200 billion on China's exports to the United States from 10% to 25%, involving China to the United States. Spin Clothing exports amounted to about 10 billion 300 million US dollars, accounting for 22.6% of China's exports to the US textile and clothing and raw materials, and 2 million of export enterprises. China immediately made counter measures.

Affected by trade friction, the United States dropped from second to third in the first five months of this year. The total trade between China and the United States was 1 trillion and 420 billion yuan, down 9.6%, accounting for 11.7% of the total value of our foreign trade. Among them, exports to the United States amounted to 1 trillion and 90 billion yuan, down 3.2%.

For textile enterprises, the feeling is more profound and is affected by the rapid growth of the loom loom capacity in the outlying areas. In the first half of this year, the entire textile market is in a relatively stagnant cycle, and the aggravation of Sino US trade friction is aggravating the situation.

In the previous market research, Wu manager, who is responsible for weaving silk weaving enterprises in Wujiang, said that under the tariff pressure of 25% of foreign trade, even though the market is not good, the price of grey cloth, printing and dyeing and finishing is slightly lower than before. However, it has caused a great impact on the docking list. Many of the lists were caused by 25% customs duties, which resulted in customers unable to accept. In the past month or so, the number of fabrics exported to the United States declined significantly.

Double lose! Lowering tariffs has become the common aspiration of Chinese and American enterprises.

Whether the tariff of 25% will decline may be the most concerned problem of textile enterprises.

Affected by the insufficient demand of the terminal garment industry, the average inventory of the weaving enterprises has reached a historical high of more than 40 days, and even some enterprises have made the decision of "summer vacation". There is a lot of pressure on the capital of enterprises, and the phenomenon of throwing goods on the market is common.

At the same time, the United States has had a hard time.

In June 17th, the United States Trade Representative Office held a seven day hearing on the US tariffs on about 300 billion US dollars in goods exported to the United States.

The previous 200 billion list has caused great adverse effects on the normal production and operation of American enterprises.

American Apparel and footwear Herr Fenby, President of the association, said in an interview that "25% of tariffs have given us a head start. If we can move more products out of China, we will do so, but we can never do it."

　　 fashion brand Schneider, chief executive of Kanies Cole, also said that the impact of 25% tariffs on the company's profits and costs is devastating. "In addition to reducing product quality and raising product prices, we move to other countries and get nothing."

It can be said that 25% of tariffs bring about a result of double lose, and reducing tariffs has become the common aspiration of Chinese and American enterprises.

Once tariffs are loose, exports to the US will peak.

I wonder if you remember the freighter laden with soybeans? In order to reach their destinations before tariffs are imposed, traders are always racking their brains.

Once the 25% tariff is loosened, it may bring a wave of centralized shipments of textiles.

Compared with China's textile and apparel products, Southeast Asia may be cheaper, but the quality of products can not be guaranteed very well. It can be said that Chinese textiles are still synonymous with good quality and low price, and they play an irreplaceable role in the international market.

But because the attitude of the United States is wavering, no one can guarantee whether it will ever happen again.

Therefore, if the tariff is loose, I believe that many enterprises will choose to "bag for safety" and import large quantities of Chinese textiles when the tariff is low. At that time, China's exports to the US will probably have a peak in a short time.

The polyester market is full of jubilation.

Can weaving enterprises turn over salted fish?

At present, both PTA and ethylene glycol are available. futures Properties, such as the RMB and stock market, have become more and more popular.

In June 19th, the 1909 futures contract of PTA futures closed at 5574 points, up 212 points from the previous trading day, or 3.95%.

　　 Polyester production and marketing, polyester production and marketing in June 19th came to about 240%-270%, and some factories production and marketing even reached more than 400%.

　　 According to the price monitoring of China silk net, polyester filament has experienced a wave of first fall and steady after May. In the early June of this year, the price of polyester filament fell to a low level since 2016. After that, it began to rebound steadily, and the recent trade has brought positive or accelerated rebound in polyester prices.

　　 For weaving enterprises, in the case of high inventory, the rise of raw materials can stabilize the price of grey cloth falling. If tariff can be loosened at that time, it will bring a wave of market. Perhaps the weaving market can really sweep away the declining trend in the first half of this year and thoroughly turn over salted fish.

The results are not yet known, and remain cautiously optimistic.

But at the same time, the Sino US heads of state's current call content is only agreed to meet again at the twenty leaders' summit in Osaka, but it is not yet clear what the outcome will be.

The attitude of the United States has been wavering in China's attitude of friendly exchanges and mutual benefit.

In December 1st last year, the heads of state of China and the United States also held talks in Buenos Aires, Argentina. At that time, China and the United States reached a consensus on economic and trade issues, and decided to stop trade restrictions such as tariff escalation. However, in May this year, the United States unilaterally imposed a 25% tariff.

Therefore, for the outcome of this meeting, we must maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude.

THE END

For textile enterprises, the easing of trade frictions between China and the US may bring about a wave of market and ease the current difficult situation.

But in the next two years, the production capacity of the loom looms in the outlying areas is still in the outbreak stage. The situation of supply exceeding demand has not changed. Textile enterprises should improve the quality of products and make long-term plans to cope with the challenges ahead.