Textile And Garment Export Data And Clothing Data In April

Textile and garment exports weakened in April, and the trend of mid - and long-term forecasts is difficult to change.

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China's textile exports in April amounted to 9 billion 789 million US dollars, down 6.90% from the same period last year, and clothing exports amounted to US $9 billion 671 million, a decrease of 11.85% compared with the same period last year. The total export volume of textiles in 36 billion 672 million months was 36 billion 672 million US dollars, an increase of 0.76% over the same period last year, and the total export volume of garments was 39 billion 92 million US dollars, down 8.45% from the same period last year.

In April, the export volume of textiles and clothing was weakening. We believe that there are some reasons for this, and also the reasons for the overall export situation.

In terms of cardinal number, textile export volume (US dollar value) increased by 50.4% in April 2018 compared with March, and clothing export volume (US dollar value) increased by 51.8% over March.

In terms of the overall export situation, in dollar terms, China's exports decreased by 2.7% in April compared with the same period last year, indicating that the overall export situation is under pressure due to the external environment.

From the 125th session of the Canton Fair, 195454 people from overseas purchasers dropped 3.88% compared with the spring fair in 2018, and the total export volume was 29 billion 730 million US dollars, which was 1.1% lower than that of the spring fair in 2018. At the same time, the proportion of short and medium bills remained high, and the long list ratio remained low.

Looking ahead, considering the pressure on the overall export situation, although the growth rate of short-term textile and garment exports may be fluctuated due to the base (normal) and grab export, it is difficult to change the trend of downward pressure in the medium and long term.

In April, the volume of retail sales of clothing and apparel was slower than that of the year-on-year growth rate.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in April, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles in the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 100 billion yuan, an increase of -1.1% compared with the same period last year. The total retail sales of consumer goods, clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles were 441 billion 800 million yuan in 1-4 months, an increase of 2.2% in the same proportion.

In April, the retail sales of Zero clothing increased by 10.3 percentage points over the same period last year, which was 7.7 percentage points slower than that in March.

We believe that it is mainly affected by the "May 1" holiday movement (two days in the three days of last year's holiday) in April, so we expect that in May, the zero retail sales of clothing and the growth rate of the ring are expected to improve.

Looking forward to June and the second half of this year, we are cautious about the growth rate of retail sales of zero garments. Although the base number decreased by the same period last year, the downward pressure on the economy is still there. If the short-term economic situation is difficult to be improved, the probability of social retail sales is unlikely to accelerate recovery. Because of the historical data from the growth rate of domestic Zero clothing retail sales, there is a strong correlation with GDP, including the historical data from the United States and Japan.

Of course, although we are cautious about the growth of the retail sales of the zero garments, but from the perspective of the fine molecular industry, the two sub sectors of sportswear and children's clothing are in continuous prosperity. The former believes that we mainly benefit from the changes in consumption habits, including changes in the trend of the trend. The latter, we believe, mainly benefit from the trend of branding.

Investment suggestion

First of all, the downstream garment home textile board suggests paying attention to the high prosperity sportswear and children's wear faucets, including the leading outdoor products industry with signs of recovery.

Secondly, drawing on the experience of Japan and the United States, the leaders of public clothing, including professional clothing faucets (including light luxury faucets), are expected to pass through the cycle.

Finally, considering the uncertainty of the external environment, the upstream textile manufacturing sector suggests paying attention to leading companies with more overseas capacity and stronger risk tolerance.

Related targets: BILLIN, Semir costumes, Pathfinder, Hai Lan's home, guris, Luo Lai life, fuanna, Kai Run shares, Lu Tai A and Xinye textile.