Wait-And-See Sentiment Continues, Zheng Cotton Futures Continue To Bottom.

Last week (May 20-24), trade frictions between China and the United States were escalated. There was no news on the follow-up negotiations. Textile orders were nowhere to be seen. Market pessimism continued. Zhengzhou cotton futures, which had been consolidated for a week, set foot on the journey of finding bottom.

Textile industry chain to digest inventory to resist the risk of rapid decline in raw material prices, cotton and cotton yarn sales are deserted, fixed price sales loss is serious, the price is higher than the spot price resources basically no deal, point price due to the sharp decline of futures triggered part of the paction, the price continued to fall.

Cotton alternatives such as polyester, rayon and other varieties also fell slightly.

In addition, the advantage of cotton reserves is obvious, sales are better than spot, but the average price of Zhou Chengjiao is still down 386 yuan / ton.

This week, the bottom price was 13747 yuan / ton, down 146 yuan / ton.

Cotton price B index 14634 yuan / ton, weekly fell 360 yuan / ton, compared with Zheng cotton futures CF1909 contract, spot premium 1129 yuan / ton, week expansion 220 yuan / ton, continue to expand significantly, is not conducive to warehouse receipt registration.

Futures.

The Sino US trade war continues to escalate, the tariff is imposed, and the follow-up talks have no news. The market is pessimistic.

The main contract CF1909 closed at 13505 yuan / ton on Friday, and fell 580 yuan / ton in the week. The 13245 yuan / ton in the market hit a new low, closing 3130426 hands, reducing 410704 hands, reducing 11.6%, holding 547780 positions, increasing 39074 hands, increasing 7.7%, slowing the disk fluctuations, reducing turnover, and gradually increasing the position of the bottom line funds.

By the end of May 24th, the top 20 seats in the positions were more than 206598 hands, an increase of 22548 hands, an increase of 12.3%, an increase of 16931 hands, an increase of 7.4%, and an increase in the number of short positions, reflecting an increase in the number of new funds.

Clearance of 40415 hands, weekly minus 5617 hands, little change, adverse rebound.

As of the end of May 24th, buying 1993 sets of holding positions, reducing 2289 hands, selling 40530 sets of insurance policies, an increase of 120 hands, the disk fell again, buy a set of insurance losses, lighten up, the sale of hedging changed little.

As of May 24th, 18591 registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1081.

The warehouse receipt effective forecast 1061, reduced 129.

Futures fell, and spot prices were better than warehouse receipts, and warehouse receipts increased.

With the expansion of the current premium, the resources can be reduced and the total number of forecasts has declined.

The price of the CF1909 contract is close to the quotation of the general trade port of the imported cotton trade. The difference between the inside and outside prices is narrowed. The US market stabilizes and rebounded, and the support for Zheng cotton is confident. This week, the bottom price has not been substantially reduced, and it has not played a role in the Zheng cotton market. Zheng Mian's consolidation may be larger.

Us disk: after the crash, the United States cotton became the world's cheapest cotton, plus the reputation of "no three silk", which was welcomed by the market. Sales figures were better than expected. The US market rebounded, and the July contract closed at 68.31 cents / pound on Friday, rising 245 points per week, and the rebound is expected to continue.

Continue to pay attention to the progress of Sino US trade war.

On the spot.

The trade war has been upgraded again, the orders for the latter have been reduced, the futures have fallen further and innovated low, the industrial chain has been panic, and the textile enterprises have to digest inventory to resist the risk of the rapid decline of raw material prices and reduce raw material procurement.

Futures fell sharply on Wednesday, triggering some spot price pactions, a cycle of 1114 hands.

Compared with the spot, the price advantage is obvious, the turnover is still acceptable, and the average price of the paction has fallen by 405 yuan per ton.

After the futures slump, although the sales base has increased, it is significantly less than the futures decline, the overall price of spot price resources still fell 200-300 yuan / ton, the mainland Xinjiang cotton main paction price fell 200-400 yuan / ton in the 14500-15000 yuan / ton interval, fixed price quotation slightly smaller in 100-200 yuan / ton, the price is concentrated in 15500 yuan / ton, obviously higher than the spot price resources, basically no deal.

Customs import cotton hedging with the futures down, but less than the futures decline of 300-400 yuan / ton, the price of the offer has changed little, there is no market price.

Affected by the drop in cotton prices, the price of substitutes decreased slightly, viscose 11700 yuan / ton, polyester 7800 yuan / ton, and the weekly price of 100-300 yuan / ton was low.

This week, the starting price was 13747 yuan, down 146 yuan / ton, with a smaller margin, which had little effect on the spot and futures of new cotton.

Operation suggestion.

The external market has stabilized slightly rebounded, the difference between internal and external prices narrowed, the lower price of the base price was reduced, the support for Zheng cotton, the disk may enter the stage of concussion, and there may be a small overfall rebound.

Pay close attention to weather, trade and war related information.