How Long Can PX/TA Maintain The High Processing Fee Through Supply And Demand?
PTA - climbing the peak processing fee profit
chart 12016-2019 year PTA Processing cost comparison
Source: lung Chung
The near future PTA Processing fees continue to push up the peak with the trend of breaking the wind. Four month Twenty-three Day, PTA Price in Six thousand five hundred and forty element / Tons, rising from last month. Forty element / Tons increase Zero point six two A percentage point higher than the same period last year. Nine hundred and fifty element / Tons, an increase of Sixteen point nine nine A percentage point; PTA Processing fee One thousand six hundred and ten element / Tons higher, higher than last month Five hundred and forty-three element / Tons increase Fifty point eight four A percentage point higher than the same period last year. Eight hundred and thirteen element / Tons, the increase is as high as One hundred and two point one five A percentage point. What has happened in such a big increase? Xiaobian and you explore it.
PX and PTA Processing profits are subversive.
chart 2 PX-PTA Comparison chart of processing fees
Source: lung Chung
From diagram Two It can be seen clearly that Three After month PX and PTA The trend of processing profit is totally subversive, especially Four month 17-18 Two days in a day, PXCFR Price drop Seventy-six point eight three US dollar, down by up to Seven point three seven A percentage point. End Four month Twenty-three Day, PX- Stone brain oil price difference has broken down Four hundred Dollar mark, until Three hundred and sixty-three dollar / Tons, down from the same month last month. One hundred and twenty-one point three four The US dollar is down. Twenty-five point zero seven A percentage point. With the advance of Hengli refining and chemical industry, Hainan refinery, Zhejiang petrochemical and other sets of installations are expected to be put into operation in the second half of the year. PX The market is generally empty and short. PX Profit, do more PTA Processing fees become the main melody of the market.
PX Cost side collapse, resulting in Four month Eighteen day PTA1909 The contract ended at a close down, and the price stabilized with the mainstream suppliers' spot buybacks. therefore PTA Processing fee One thousand and six hundred element / Tons high. However, in the case of rising processing fees, PTA Whether the factory maintenance can be carried out as scheduled is the most worrying thing in the industry. Detailed maintenance is shown in table. One )
Can the maintenance of the unit be as critical as scheduled?
surface One The near future PTA Equipment maintenance list
Enterprise name | Capacity (10000 tons) | Planned maintenance | Plan restart |
Tung Kun Jiaxing petrochemical | Two hundred and twenty | Four Maintenance for 8 months | Overhaul for about 15-20 days. |
Zhuhai BP | One hundred and twenty-five | Three Maintenance for 31 months | The original plan was restarted in April 20th, but the restart failed. |
Tianjin petrochemical | Thirty-four | Four Maintenance for 15 months | Four Restart on 23 May |
Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fibre | Sixty-five | Four Maintenance for 19 months | Plan for 7-9 days |
Luoyang petrochemical | Thirty-two point five | Four Maintenance for 20 months | Planned maintenance for 45 days |
Ya Dong petrochemical, Shanghai | Seventy-five | Four 23 days of water washing | Plan for 2 days of washing |
Han state in Jiangyin | Seventy | Four Night parking on 23 | Tentative maintenance for 3 days |
Yisheng Ningbo | Two hundred | Four Maintenance for 27 months | Plan for 15 days |
Ningbo Taiwan | One hundred and twenty | Five Maintenance for 8 months | Planned maintenance for 20 days |
Fuhai creation | Four hundred and fifty | Originally scheduled for maintenance near May 10th, pending. | Planned maintenance for about 15-20 days. |
Shanghai petrochemical | Forty | Five Maintenance for 24 months | Plan for 1 months. |
Sichuan Shengda | One hundred | Five The month is expected to be put into operation, and the specific information will be determined. |
Source: lung Chung
According to Yisheng Ningbo Two hundred Million tons in Four month Twenty-seven Day parking, while Tung Kun petrochemical Two hundred and twenty Million tons, Yizheng chemical fiber Sixty-five Million tons, Ya Dong petrochemical Seventy-five Million tons, Hon Bang petrochemical Seventy Ten thousand tons and Zhuhai BP125 All ten thousand tonnes of units are restarted and calculated accordingly. Four End of month PTA Operating rate will rise Seven point two Percentage point to 85% The supply side will grow steadily in the near future.
Four month Twenty-three Ningbo Yisheng Petrochemical Company Two hundred 10000 tons installed in Four month Twenty-seven Daily maintenance Fifteen Day, the news came out, also boosted. PTA Spot market. However, the plan was not long ago Four Maintenance of Hengli petrochemical in mid June One Number line Two hundred and twenty Ten thousand tons / There is no official news on the installation of the device for the year, and the delay time for maintenance will be determined. One The latest maintenance time for Line No. Two thousand and eighteen year Eight Month overhaul, calculated at this time, they can not be overhauled in the second half of this year.
The pending device is Fuhai Chuang, the device. Four hundred and fifty Ten thousand tons / Annual capacity, current load Eight Cheng. This device has quite a lot of information. The official overhaul after the initial delayed maintenance is on schedule. Recently, with the continuous increase of processing fees, the market has once again questioned the voice. According to long Zhong information, at present, the device official has not specified whether the repair is scheduled, but there is a news of shipment in the spot market, so it is not possible to postpone the overhaul.
Downstream market lacks strong and positive
By the end of last week, according to long Zhong information, raw material stock of polyester plant was basically maintained. 4-6 God, part of it. Seven Near heaven. Polyester filament, staple fiber and polyester chip products appear in stock. Two The rising of the sky is respectively Eighteen Heaven, Five Heaven, Five Days, production and sales are on average. 6-7 The level of success. On the whole, the stock pressure of polyester plant is relatively ideal, but the terminal market is crying for no tears. It is reported that the shift of polyester stock to the terminal plant warehouse or the finished product inventory is caused, resulting in the difficulty of continuous production of polyester production.
The market of grey fabric is light, and the inventory of products is on the rise. Under the condition of poor profit, the local area will control the stock up or reduce the construction slightly.
We still need to pay close attention to Hengli refinery plant. Two hundred and twenty-five Ten thousand tons PX Load in 5-6 Near, strive for Six Month Four hundred and fifty The 10000 ton plant is fully run. at present PX The bad news of the new plant has basically been released, and the terminal demand has no obvious advantage. PTA Mainstream suppliers are not able to buy back for the time being. PTA The formation of greater bad. Five In January, the polyester market started to fluctuate in a limited way. 91% In the vicinity of high places, rigid demand is stable. Short term forecast PTA Interval oscillation is the main concern. PTA Implementation of plant maintenance.
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