Stock Market Situation: The Allocation Opportunities For Securities Dealers Are Coming.

Since June, we have recommended the construction central enterprises as the first time for the whole market of the Tang Xiao team of Tianfeng architecture. At the same time, we also recommended the allocation opportunities for securities companies from a strategic perspective.

The two are recommended at the bottom. In July, they began to gain excess returns. In recent days, they returned slightly, suggesting that investors should seize the opportunity to get on the bus. At the same time, we would like to take this opportunity to emphasize the logic of building central enterprises and securities companies. The first is the core logic of the recommendation at the beginning of June, and the two is the new logic since July.

Since May, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index has gone out of a relatively independent market, and capital and popularity have been continuously converting to the stocks in the 50 index.

This seems to have deviated from the logic of many investors who had "no place to go", but in fact, the situation is just the opposite. There are more and more people everywhere, such as white horse faucets and consumer electronics.

The core logic is likely to lie in the change of market participants' structure. With the strictness of financial regulation and the shrinking of public fund shares, the market participants' structure has changed from the three groups of former hot money, public offering and absolute income investors to the state dominated by absolute income investors.

When the hot money is regulated and the public offering shrinks, the robust absolute income institutions, represented by insurance, sunshine private placement, social security pensions and bank management, begin to dominate the market.

The strategy tends to converge, and the survival of the fittest. In this context, the convergence of public fund behavior has also been greatly improved. According to the fund's report, the fund products with more than 80% positions and less than 50% are all decreasing, and 50%-70%'s position has become the mainstream.

In early June, it was observed that there were still some stagnant and stable industries with catalyst and expected difference in the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Although the two major sectors have achieved excess returns in July, they are still relatively stagnant.

In recent years, with China's pfer of shares in Zhenhua heavy industries, it is foreshadowing that the reform of state-owned enterprises in China's Construction Group is about to open.

Follow up, we can expect more construction central enterprises action.

After the sharp decline in the performance of securities dealers since 2016, the profit growth rate of the securities industry has been steadily restored, especially the recovery of leading securities companies has been very impressive.

At the same time, the PB of the securities company is still at the relative bottom position, ranking the monthly PB value from 2007 to the present, and the historical value of the current valuation is close to the latter 20%.

Besides, we use

The yield of annualized ROE compared with PB is compared with the risk-free return rate (the yield of the recent 10 year bonds is around 3.6%). The results show that the PB of the 16 listed brokerages is not higher than the yield of the annex ROE/10 bonds, and the leading securities companies are basically included.

From the perspective of relative return rate, even if rebounding to the current point, the brokerage sector still has obvious configuration and defensive value.

On the other hand, in the first half of the year, many manufacturing leaders are talking about the story of concentration improvement. In fact, the concentration degree of the brokerage industry is also improving.

From the data of 2013 to 2016, the proportion of the top 5 brokerage firms to the total revenue of the listed securities companies was calculated. It can be found that the proportion of the first five brokers in the total revenue is steadily increasing, and the income of each subdivision business income TOP5 has also maintained a continuous rising trend in the last two years.

The industry concentration of the securities industry is being strengthened, and the leading position of the leading securities companies will further consolidate in various businesses.

Especially in the regulatory level to prevent financial risks and strengthen

Under the background of increasing strength, large securities firms with strong comprehensive strength have higher risk management capabilities. It is foreseeable that some investment banks, mergers and acquisitions, information management and other businesses will gradually shift to large brokerages, which is likely to further speed up the process of upgrading the concentration of leading securities companies.

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