Grasp Next Year'S "Chun Sheng" Market, A Shares Are Optimistic About The Future Market.

The central economic work conference set the tone for China's economy in 2017.

The stock market is no exception.

This week, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Shenzhen index, small and medium sized board and gem continue to collect the weekly Yin line.

From 29 to 3301 in November, the market has been adjusted for 4 weeks after ending the "autumn rush" market. This week, the lowest point has reached 3084 points, or 6.8%.

It seems to have fallen a lot, but in fact, it is far less than the adjustment after the autumn rush.

1, bad profits continue

Before the end of each year, management will focus on preventing and resolving financial risks and eliminating a number of risk points according to the actual market situation.

Since December this year, A shares have gone through a series of bad internal shocks besides the external impact of the Fed's interest rate hike and the depreciation of RMB to 7 yuan.

If management strictly restraining the tide of risk management, Vanke fell from 25 yuan to 20 yuan, and nearly 20 billion of national debt securities acted as a breach of contract, causing dozens of financial institutions to tighten their capital chain; money shortage, debt market deleveraging, recruiting Treasuries, private debt default, and so on, so that the market was once enveloped in a very tense atmosphere, and some even feared that there would be a risk of another stock market crash.

At present, in addition to Vanke's share price, there is still room for downfall, and there is a certain damage to Shen Cheng Zhi, as well as the need to solve the problem of failing to recruit treasure.

This shows that, after 20 years ago, the Treasury bond futures 3.27 incident, after last year's rare stock market crash, the government's ability to prevent and defuse financial risks has been greatly enhanced. China's economic and financial strength is no longer the same, and the market's ability to withstand risks has also greatly improved.

2, institutional checkout

Every December is the end of the institutional year.

December 20th is the day of bank loan, which can easily lead to "money shortage" in enterprises and financial industry.

December 25th is the closing date of a listed company. The funds borrowed from the beginning of the year, funds entrusted to the organization's financial management, market capitalization management funds and capital management project funds must be recovered from the stock market in time.

This is why the stock market fell on Friday.

Next week is the last trading week of 2016.

Private equity funds, financial institutions, financial management products and so on, there are still year-end checkout, cash withdrawal needs.

Therefore, next week is a week of intense pressure from the market, and the market will face the final test.

Of course, at the end of the year, in order to compete for the rankings, the public funds also need to pull up the market value of the positions.

3. Shrinkage shock.

At the end of the year, after 4 consecutive weeks of bad line, the market profit chips were cleaned up, and the index and share price level dropped by more than 200 points, so the market sell-off would gradually decrease.

And knowing that institutions should end their accounts at the end of the year, market buying must be very cautious.

It is often the distance to undertake, or even to undertake at an ultra-low price, resulting in shrinking volume.

The lowest daily turnover this week has dropped to 384 billion 300 million, which is only about half of 689 billion 800 million of 3301 in November 29th.

It is not ruled out that there will be more land next week.

Shrinkage is bound to be accompanied by increased volatility, making the market volatile.

If we break the 3100 point platform on Tuesday, we will test half line 3089 points; Wednesday, go up and go up high, close the middle line to 3137 points, Thursday does not appear black Thursday, but continue to small Yang, and receive 3139 points at 60 antennas.

The arrangement of Japanese K-line is horizontal arrangement, showing the bottom characteristics.

At present, there are four main indexes in the market: Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Branch index, small and medium-sized board index and gem index.

Since the beginning of this year, the four index has all taken out the negative line, but there has been obvious differentiation: the Shanghai Composite Index has dropped by 12.13% from 3539 points to 3110 points; the Shenzhen Branch index has dropped 19.48% from 12665 to 10199 points; the small and medium sized board has fallen 15% from 13493 to 11480 points; the gem has dropped from 2714 points to 1964 points, with a decrease of 27.64%.

Entering the "winter sowing" period, the four index is still divided.

Last Thursday, the index fell 3.41%, 4.13%, 4.49% and 4.82% respectively, and this week fell by 0.39%, 1.41%, 0.73% and 1.71% respectively.

This shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has the strongest trend from the beginning to the end, while the Shenzhen three index has gone weaker, with the gem being the worst.

Moreover, the factors leading to the differentiation of the four index can not be reversed at the end of the year, or even be unable to be reversed next year, but will further intensify.

The reasons I have described last week are not repeated.

Recognizing the reasons and trends of index differentiation will help to select the right index, choose the right market, select the right sector and choose the right stocks in the coming year, so as to strive for better returns.

5, hot rehearsal

Facing the increasingly obvious structural market characteristics, the new year's

At the end of last year, the central economic work conference has given directions.

Moreover, the new hot spots will be rehearsed in advance during the "winter sowing" period.

In the past two weeks, the majority of investors should clearly see the prototype of new hot spots next year.

First, it is expected to be supported by policies and reforms, and a cyclical plate with reasonable valuation.

Such as supply side reform, "three go down and one subsidy", PPP, debt to equity swap, military industry and other related stocks.

The two is the concept of state-owned enterprise reform.

Central enterprises reform stocks, focusing on seven pilot areas of mixed concept stocks.

In the local state-owned assets reform unit, Shanghai's state-owned assets reform concept is selected.

In particular, Shanghai plate is medium and small, the share price is relatively low, and the possibility of shell backdoor is high.

The three is the big consumption concept stocks.

In particular, the categories affected by new technologies and new models are mainly related to stocks in consumption related fields, such as medicine, TMT, education, logistics, food and beverage, home and so on.

Although in the "winter sowing" period, the preview of the new hot plate and

There will be repeated shocks, or because the big index of the big shock, the main force is going to make the band, or the main force will suppress the stock price in order to get more cheap chips, or because different agencies are competing for chips, or because big investors are making frequent price differentials.

However, as long as it is in line with the new hot spots next year, as long as there has been a continuous rise in price increase and price reduction, the shareholding cost has gone up to a new level, so these new hot stocks will be more explosive in next year's "Chun Sheng" market.

6, post Market Research

In order to ensure steady growth, deepen the supply side reform, and better implement the "three down, one down, one subsidy", achieve debt to equity swap, vigorously promote the reform of state-owned assets, increase equity financing, maintain the basic stability of RMB and other arduous tasks, every item can not be separated from a healthy, stable and prosperous capital market.

At least 100 billion of the pension will enter the stock market and have a multiplier effect on attracting social funds because of President Liu Shiyu's "good news and good news in the future."

Therefore, there are good reasons for looking ahead to the stock market next year.

In view of the failure of the fusing mechanism at the beginning of this year, most institutions and investors began to lose 20%.

Since chairman Liu Shiyu took office, he took "stability" as his responsibility and used jack type trend to increase the focus of the market upward by 100 points.

It closed for 41 days on the 2800 point platform, closed 57 days on the 2900 platform, closed 54 days on the 3000 point platform, closed 33 days on 3100 points, and 20 days on 3200 points platform.

That is to say, the market has stayed for 107 days above 3000 points, with an average turnover of 500 billion per day, a total turnover of 54 trillion, equivalent to 1.4 times of the circulation market value of 38 trillion, and the handover of 15 trillion of the real market value of turnover has been 3.6 times, so that the average shareholding of the entire market has been raised to more than 3000 points.

The support of the 3000 point is a solid rock.

From a technical point of view, the current KDJ index is at the bottom, and the weekly KDJ index is below the 50 low level, and the one or two week adjustment (i.e. around January 10th) will be the end.

This has led to a good expectation for the stock market, which is down 450 points this year and the market is full of losers.

From the 7 major areas of the SASAC and the NDRC, the pilot reform of the central enterprises of the 7 groups, and the reform of the local state assets have been completed, we can believe that next year, such a state-owned asset reform stock with considerable index weight will be staged, and the market will continue to rise one after another.

Next year, the Shanghai Composite Index will enter the 3200 point - 3500 new box operation, which will be a big probability event.

This gives investors a good prospect for A shares next year, and has further strengthened confidence at the end of the year.

I think next week there will be a downward motion in the big market, which will test the support of half a line for 3089 points again.

To prepare for the worst, there should be strong support at the top 3027 of the annual line.

If we can reach this position, investors can choose the new hot stocks next year, boldly copy the bottom, and make the whole warehouse full, and finish the "winter sowing" and wait for next year's "Chun Sheng".

The closing index should be close to 3100 at the end of the year.

But there is no need for people to be pessimistic about getting the year's line.

This year, we can continue to make profits.

Even if you lose money, as long as your capital card wins the big market index, it should be satisfied.

Even though this year has not yet won the big market, but as long as there are good reasons to firmly believe that the major restructuring stocks you have suspended or have not yet suspended, there will be room for improvement next year.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats and Internet cafes.