The Cotton Line Is Still Bullish: Is It True?

The market is so wandering, causing the industry to guess the trend of the later stage.

The author believes that domestic cotton short term watch steady long term bullish recent domestic cotton rise or fall is also difficult.

First, the sales price of Xinjiang cotton "double 29" and "double 30" in the mainland is hovering at 16500-16600 yuan / ton, and the factory price is 17000 yuan / ton separately.

But according to

Introduction, it is difficult to continue to break through.

Second, in the near future, Zheng cotton futures are hovering at 15500-16000 yuan / ton interval.

Third, the price of real estate cotton is maintained at 15500-15600 yuan / ton (3128 level). Although the paction is not many, the market is cold and cheerless, but the price fluctuation interval is not big.

The reasons are as follows:

First, why do we say short-term stability?

1, the supply of cotton is limited by capacity, and the supply of the mainland market is always hard to "completely".

Data show that up to now, the country's cotton processing about 3 million 800 thousand tons, of which Xinjiang occupies more than 80%.

However, Xinjiang cotton has 30-40 tons of cotton per month due to its pportation capacity. After the Spring Festival, the power of railway pportation has increased.

Therefore, from now on until the Spring Festival, cotton spinning enterprises may be tight.

2, textile enterprises Procurement cautious, cotton prices rose sharply and lack of motivation.

According to the feedback from textile enterprises, in December, the state-owned cotton shops in the early stage of the textile industry had already bottomed out, but the market focused textile enterprises did not meet the requirements.

And so on is the spinning enterprise's "use with buy".

Not only that, but also some enterprises reduce the production of pure cotton yarn, increase the production of pure polyester yarn and blended yarn, in order to avoid the period of high cotton price.

3.

Pass the signal that cotton price rises to be tired.

Judging from the price of Zheng cotton contract in recent months, Zheng cotton is 200-300 yuan / ton lower than the spot price.

There were also discussions in the industry that Zheng cotton was finally unable to stir.

As a result, the bullish atmosphere of the market is obvious.

Second, why is the long term bullish?

1, the output has been greatly reduced this year.

The sharp reduction in cotton this year is no longer suspense.

First of all, Xinjiang's cotton output is between 420-430 tons this year, while the mainland is about 83-85 tons.

The total will be 505-515 tons.

China's spinning demand is 800-830 tons, that is to say, the gap between supply and demand exceeds 3 million tons.

2, state storage cotton outgoing can slow supply and demand tension?

Announced that the 2017 round of storage began from March 6th to August 31st, a total of 5 months, the daily output of 30 thousand tons.

5 months in theory, at more than 3 million tons, should almost meet the demand.

However, judging from the 2016 round storage situation, traders were involved in the auction, and a large number of cotton were auctions by traders.

If traders can still participate in 2017, then 5 months of storage will still not meet the demand of textile enterprises.

3, 2017 cotton planting area and output to cotton price is very important.

Because in 2016, the national cotton store did not enter, that is to say, the total stock of national cotton reserves should be at 700-750 tons, and the 300-350 tons will continue to turn out in 2017. The stock will be reduced to about 4 million tons.

As a result, there is no lack of speculation in the industry. It is also difficult for some traders and large textile enterprises to compete for resources.

Therefore, cotton prices will not drop in 2017, and the possibility of inflation will be very great.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.