It May Be Good News To Extend The Storage Time To September 30Th.

In the past month, the price of PTA has been shifting downward.

From the cost side, the PX market, which has always been more robust, has weakened the supporting role of the PTA market after the restart of the maintenance device.

Demand side is also bad, weaving enterprises have begun to load down, with the G20 Hangzhou summit approaching.

The operating rate will also decline, coupled with the suppression of large warehouse receipts in the current PTA market, the PTA price rebound will be difficult.

In the face of the sharp drop in oil prices, the downstream naphtha is also in deep decline. Since July, naphtha has fallen by 20.6% or even more than that of the US crude oil in the same period.

However, the downward trend of raw material prices is not very smooth for the pmission of subordinate chemicals, compared with the decline of PX prices, a decrease of less than 5% in the past month.

It is worth noting that after August, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped by 10 percentage points to 60%.

At present, the trend of the industrial chain's upstream and downstream operation rate has formed a clear scissors gap, and the sluggish demand has been a drag on the PTA market.

As a result, the price difference between PX and naphtha has been greatly expanded. At present, around 440 US dollars / ton, the profit margin of PX production links has been greatly increased.

The relative firmness of PX is mainly affected by changes in industrial installations.

Petrochemical and Liaoyang Petrochemical cumulative 1 million 700 thousand tons of device maintenance to a certain extent to boost market prices, but with the gradual restart in mid August, market supply tensions will be eased, then PX or will fall.

In late July, Tong Kun

Petrochemical, Hengli petrochemical and Zhuhai BP and other PTA devices unexpectedly stopped, resulting in a significant drop in the average PTA operating rate. Recently, with the gradual restart of the device, the PTA operating rate has returned to the level near 73%, and the industry lacks the willingness to take inventory.

In terms of polyester plant, the overall construction is still on the 80% higher level. However, with the pace of G20 summit approaching, a large number of polyester enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces may face administrative compulsory shutdown.

In September, the warehouse receipts volume hit a new high in recent years. In July 14th, the total number of warehouse receipts was up to 192 thousand, equivalent to nearly one million tons of PTA cargo. There are still more than 160 thousand warehouse receipts, which is much higher than the same period in previous years.

Huge warehouse receipts indicate that investors lack confidence in the market outlook.

Because the PTA warehouse receipt is cancelled in September every year, the supply of PTA is still sufficient at present, and the social inventory is as high as about 1700000 tons. If the warehouse receipts flow into the spot market, the supply will increase sharply.

To sum up, although PX is still a strong link in the whole industry chain, it still has certain support for PTA price, but as the supply market tends to be loose, the PTA cost will be weakened.

On the other hand, polyester and weaving enterprises are also facing the expectation of continued load reduction in the late stage, and the demand for PTA will be affected.

The huge volume of warehouse receipts in the market is still an important negative factor to suppress the PTA price. It is expected that the weak PTA will continue in the following market.