Cotton Prices Skyrocketed, The More They Buy Psychological Or Boost The Vicious Circle Of Cotton Prices.

Recently, commodities are heating up again. In the early days, with the promotion of Shanghai and Shanghai, the commodities were rising, Shanghai nickel,

Rapeseed oil, soya bean oil, plastic and PP went on limits.

Has the fundamentals suddenly changed?

Wang Jun, general manager of Beijing Huatong universe Investment Co., Ltd., told reporters that today's mass rise is the embodiment of liquidity expansion. The industry itself includes black metals and agriculture.

There has been no change in the fundamentals of vegetable oil and other industrial products, and the rise of internal and external silver is entirely capital driven.

Bulk

The pattern of "bullish" and "systemic long" and "weak industry" appeared simultaneously.

The speed of the recent rise in cotton is staggering, the logic of short is huge stock of national cotton reserves, and the logic of many heads is very simple.

Cotton prices skyrocketed, the more they buy psychological or boost the vicious circle of cotton prices.

This week is the tenth week of the cotton rotation. The price of the standard cotton auction is 12635 yuan / ton, up 160 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Zheng cotton index has risen 1935 yuan / ton, or up to 14.56%, in only 6 trading days since last Monday.

Today, Zheng cotton main 09 contract successfully stands at 15000 yuan / ton mark.

According to the China cotton information network, the main selling price of the real estate cotton in July 4th was 13800-14100 yuan / ton, and the price of Xinjiang cotton was 14200-14500 yuan / ton, which raised nearly 1000 yuan compared with last week.

If converted to 3128B grade lint, the price will be 14500 yuan / ton.

Once the price rises to 15000 yuan / ton, the psychology of the downstream market may change. Emihiro Hiroshi's "cotton candy fundamentals" told reporters that the cotton price is below 15000 yuan / ton, and the downstream cotton mill is on the market. But once the price stands at 15000 yuan / ton, the downstream cotton mill may begin to have a stockpile mentality, so as to prevent the latter from buying more expensive cotton.

When prices rise to the present position, traders who are stockpiling are reluctant to ship.

It may lead to a vicious circle. The more we buy, the more we will stockpile.

He said that the situation of cotton rising is similar to that of 2010.

Tracing back to the source, the historical review of cotton throwing and storing up

Under his tips, Xiaobian found cotton candy's basic name as one of the famous cotton futures ten years' review. The following contents are selected from the basic cotton candy micro-blog article "cotton futures ten years review", which is mainly combing the process of cotton inflation in 09-2010, which may be helpful to the current market.

In 2009 (after a large number of national storage and storage, market circulation was insufficient, the price was rising all the way; after the economic crisis, the area was cut down, and the futures found the real value of cotton).

January 1st -8 31, national policy on cotton price formation absolute leading.

The intervention of state policy on cotton prices is mainly concentrated on two aspects: first, to raise the tax rebate rate of textile exports and promote the recovery of the textile industry; two, we should flexibly use the state's policy of purchasing and storing and releasing reserves, so as to ensure the stable trend of cotton prices and take into account the common interests of the upstream and downstream industries.

In May 22, 2009, the state launched the state reserve cotton rotation and temporary storage and storage of cotton.

Reserve delivery: 2 million 630 thousand tons of storage

1, in May 21, 2009, the batch will be pferred out of 2003 tons of reserve cotton in 313 thousand, 2004 tons of cotton reserves in 210 thousand, and the number of temporary storage and storage of cotton sold in the 2008 year is temporarily set at 1 million tons.

12900 yuan / ton down to 12600 yuan / ton; throw reserve policy again fine tune, reduce paction margin, allow textile enterprises to entrust a powerful cotton circulation enterprise agent auction cotton reserves.

2, in August 14, 2009, the state once again introduced the policy of dumping and storage, increasing the output of 600 thousand tons of cotton reserves, including 100 thousand tons of imported cotton imported in 2005 and 500 thousand tons of cotton temporarily collected in 2008.

In the 2005 round of the import and export of cotton, the bid price was 12500 yuan / ton (standard grade, the same below). The reserve price for temporary sale and storage of cotton sold in the 2008 year was 12600 yuan / ton.

3, in October 20, 2009, the state promulgated the third policy of dumping and storage, and sold 500 thousand tons of reserve cotton again, including 361 thousand tons of cotton stored in 2006/2007, and 139 thousand tons of cotton temporarily collected in 2008.

The reserve price for the 2006/2007 cotton reserve was 12900 yuan / ton, and the bid price of the cotton sold temporarily in 2008 was 13000 yuan / ton.

In 9-12 months, due to the expectation of reduction in production and the bottom of the price of storage, the textile enterprises actively bought and hoarded the high allocation of resources, the price support of the market and the daily rise of the purchase price of new flowers, and the active first payment of pre payment in the downstream industries;

2010 (the real cotton bull market, spot futures and futures pushed back to the spot, and the national cotton was nearly finished, and the regulation was powerless).

Cotton prices are stable in 1-5 months, and textile enterprises have been stockpiling raw material stocks in the era of resources as king, and the spot circulation is not enough. In March, cotton has just come to the end of the festival, and the price is rising rapidly. In addition, the data from the US Department of agriculture also show that the consumption of cotton will be 13% higher than that of the output. The cotton planting season will be in April April. However, due to the influence of low temperature and rainy weather, the cotton planting time in the main cotton producing areas will be delayed compared with the previous years.

In the early part of May, some parts of Xinjiang were affected by snowfall.

Cotton prices continued to shake up in 6-7 months, the new 1 million tons quota mainly pointed to South America's cotton, but South America's cotton scarcity was a fact, and 600 thousand tons of storage was only enough for the supply in January. Many hoarding cotton companies were still optimistic about the future market and the price was slightly higher.

In the 8-12 month, cotton throwing and storing pushed up cotton prices, and the state store started the "open warehouse and cotton release"; in 2010, "beans you play", "garlic you are ruthless", the overall commodities appeared in the global Panasonic effect, and cotton was once again stimulated by bull market enthusiasm under the expectation of reduction in production, and spot led futures frenzy; eight ministries and commissions used unconventional measures to control abnormal fluctuations in cotton prices.

History may repeat itself, but it will never be a simple repetition.

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The market is in urgent need of changing the state of throwing and storing.

At present, there are more liquidity in the market. With the trend of commodities becoming more and more obvious, many investors who make quantitative trading strategies are turning to the commodity market. Quantitative trading strategies are generally breaking through the increase in stocks and increasing the price.

Coupled with the short cut, the market is more fluid.

In addition, the market questioned the suspicion of how much the cotton rose this year, and combined with the increase or decrease of wheel storage cotton, accurately grasped the spot, and many enterprises set up the warranty disk to be destroyed.

The sharp rise in futures prices led to the rise in spot prices, making the downstream cotton mills complain incessantly.

In July 1st, the seminar on cotton storage and storage policy was held in Zhengzhou.

The meeting held that at the present stage, the domestic textile industry has a high cost and a decline in competitiveness, and it has not been changed by the impact of foreign textile imports and the decline in exports.

In order to improve domestic cotton supply, the state decided to turn out reserve cotton and improve the competitiveness of the textile industry.

However, since the launch of the national cotton store in May 3rd, the average daily delivery volume is only about 20 thousand tons, far lower than the 50 thousand tons of the reserve regulations.

With a small amount of input and the end of the import of cotton resources, the paction price of national cotton stores is increasing. The difficulty of purchasing has caused most enterprises to stop production and halt production, and the situation is expanding.

At present, it is urgent to change the state of throwing and storing.