Domestic Cotton Spot Market Supply Is Overstretched

In the traditional off-season, the supply of domestic cotton spot market is overstretched. The mainland's resources are basically consumed, the quantity is small and the cotton enterprises' profit margins are insufficient, so that the cotton enterprises in the mainland have been gradually delisted. At present, the domestic cotton enterprises' start-up rate has dropped to 7% level. According to the margin of resources, the market is expected to be closed at the end of this month.

The supply of raw materials has been reduced, the index of Xinjiang cotton is not good, and the source of domestic stocks has been repeatedly selected by cotton enterprises and traders. The market surplus is mainly made of low quality, low spinnable lint (except corps cotton), which has no advantages from price to quality compared with national cotton stores, so that the focus of market supply is settled.

On the market, the 30 thousand day daily delivery pattern fills the market gap and basically meets the cotton demand of textile enterprises.

It is understood that at present, domestic cotton planting is basically over. Data show that the intention of planting cotton continues to decline this year. The survey results show that the average cotton planting intention of the whole country has dropped by 11.5%, slightly lower than that of the previous period.

with

In 2015, the area is the base. It is estimated that the area of cotton planting in the whole country will be 42 million 660 thousand mu in 2016.

Judging from the current cotton growth situation, the weather in the mainland is acceptable. Early drizzle is good for cotton emergence. The emergence rate of the Yellow River cotton area is relatively high. At present, the plant height is 10cm, and the true leaf is 2-3 pieces.

However, recently, many severe convective weather happened again in southern Xinjiang, and rare wind and sand were found in Kashi and other places. The wind speed in Bachu and Jiashi reached 33m/ seconds, which had a certain impact on local crops.

Kashi's Agriculture Department said that the dust storm is fierce and has lasted for a long time, and it has a certain effect on the growth of cotton seedlings since March.

At present, from the structure of terminal purchase, quality is good.

The turnover rate has always been maintained at 100%, and some of them even increased their price by more than 3000 yuan / ton.

According to the author's statistics, in May 18th, the number of sales of reserve cotton was 25003.1396 tons, and the actual turnover was 25003.1396 tons, with a turnover rate of 100%. The average price was 12197 yuan / ton. Up to May 18th, the total turnover of cotton reserves was 355154.4609 tons, the total volume of imported cotton was 228137.9499 tons, the turnover rate was 100%, the total turnover of domestic cotton was 127016.511 tons, and the turnover rate was 98.19%.

According to factors such as insufficient supply of cotton spot resources in the country, the contradiction between Xinjiang cotton structure and the low inventory replenishment of the terminal spinning enterprises, the high turnover of the current national reserve has been achieved. Although the current market purchase and sale performance is stable, with the gradual increase in the amount of auction and the gradual consumption of imported cotton, the market has gradually shown a wait-and-see trend toward the turnover rate and price of throwing and storing.

The author analyzed the traditional off-season in 6-8 months, and the order status or weakness of terminal spinning enterprises, and accompanied by the consumption of quality resources, was a widespread concern for the subsequent market resources. Although the supply gap was supported by stages, the spinning of the national storage normalization made the textile enterprises always strictly control the stock of raw cotton. It is expected that the situation of the state auction or auction will gradually become dull in the later stage, considering the structure of reserve cotton resources, and the low quality resources will not rule out the possibility of low price dumping.

On the whole, short term market lacks substantive guidance, cotton price will hardly get adjusted kinetic energy temporarily, and the market will continue to maintain a steady pattern. However, problems such as overcapacity in the cotton industry and insufficient supply of the market will still be restrained. The cotton supply and demand in the new year tend to be better, but in the inventory environment (up to now 9 million 724 thousand and 500 tons of reserve cotton stock), cotton prices will rise or be limited.

For this year's new cotton market, I believe that if there is no index problem in the new cotton growth in the late new year, it is estimated that the price range of new cotton will be 12500-13200 yuan / ton, seed cotton price or 2.9-3.2 yuan / Jin, but the market quality resource gap is still more obvious.