PTA Increase Is More Restrictive Than Processing Fee.

Although the "frozen production agreement" has not been reached, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other major oil producing countries have produced even high crude oil, which has limited growth in late years, and the output of US crude oil has continued to decline.

The peak demand for gasoline in the US is coming. The growth of crude oil demand will ease the pressure on stocks. The supply and demand pattern of crude oil is improving, and the strong trend of crude oil will continue.

On the supply side, the PTA overhaul device was more in April, with an average monthly load of about 64%. In May, the equipment overhaul was Yangzi Petrochemical 650 thousand tons / year, Zhuhai BP110 million tons / year, Helen Petrochemical 1 million 200 thousand tons / year and Luoyang Petrochemical 325 thousand tons / year, and the average monthly load is 68.21%, which is higher than that in April.

Domestic commodities rebounded sharply in April.

We are very passionate and domestic chemicals are also driven.

During the month, international crude oil rebounded sharply. Brent and WTI crude oil station rose to a new high of 45 dollars per barrel during the six months. PTA's cost side support was strong.

In April, several sets of PTA devices were overhauled, and the PTA monthly load fell to 64%, the polyester load remained at about 80%, and PTA supply and demand was tight.

In April, the PTA main contract TA1609 closed 5012 yuan / ton, up 192 yuan / ton, or 3.98%.

In April, the international crude oil rose sharply, and Brent and WTI crude oil station reached a new high of 45 US dollars / barrel in the past six months, a monthly gain of about 20%.

In April 17, 2016, OPEC and non OPEC major oil producing countries held a meeting in Doha to discuss the crude oil freeze production plan. But Saudi Arabia insisted that Iran must join the "frozen production agreement". Finally, the Doha conference did not reach a "frozen production agreement".

Although the main oil producing countries failed to agree on "frozen production", the current crude oil market has entered a rebalancing cycle, and international crude oil does not have the foundation to drop to 30 US dollars / barrel. The international crude oil price is expected to be around 35-50 dollars per barrel.

International crude oil will provide cost support for downstream chemicals.

April PTA spot price shocks rose, the end of East China

The spot price was 4870 yuan / ton, up 255 yuan / ton, or 5.53%.

PTA spot price performance is strong mainly in two aspects, on the one hand, the international crude oil rebound; on the other hand, PTA overhaul equipment more in the month, the supply and demand is tight, the basic side is conducive to the strong spot price of PTA.

Late maintenance equipment is still more, such as Yangzi Petrochemical 3, Helen Petrochemical 2 good installations, Luoyang petrochemical, Zhuhai BP two line and so on.

Demand side, April domestic

At about 80%, at a high level, it is estimated that polyester loading will still be around 80% in May, and there will be little room for improvement.

In April, the PTA supply and demand was tight, coupled with the push up of funds, the PTA rose more obviously. At the end of the month, the PTA processing fee had reached about 800 yuan / ton, and the excessive processing fee would push up the PTA load and restrain PTA from continuing to rise.

On the whole, the crude oil trend is strong, the cost side has support, the PTA supply and demand side is more balanced, and the price range of PTA main contract is expected to be 4800-5400 yuan / ton, and the operation is mainly based on high dumping and low absorption.