Economists Expect The Fed To Raise Interest Rates 2 Times This Year.

In 2015, China's export volume continued to rise in the global market.

However, the figures released recently by the General Administration of Customs show that in February, the total value of imports and exports was 219 billion 700 million US dollars, which fell 20.8% compared with the same period last year, and exports and imports decreased by 25.4% and 13.8% respectively.

Nevertheless, Douglas Lippoldt, HSBC's senior trade economist, told reporters that the focus of Global trade will continue to move eastward.

Douglas Lippoldt said that global investment growth in 2016 is facing a significant slowdown to the risk of single digit level, even if the growth rate of investment in emerging markets is only 5%~6%.

On the contrary, consumer spending has been growing, with consumer spending rising by more than 7% in emerging markets such as China and India last year.

Douglas Lippoldt predicts that emerging markets will perform more vigorously in 2050, with 2 billion 600 million new global middle class, mainly in emerging markets.

With the growth of the middle class, changes in consumption habits will bring new opportunities to Global trade.

However, as the Federal Reserve announces raising interest rates, the entry of US dollar assets into the interest rate hike is bound to inhibit the growth of the emerging market economy.

Douglas Lippoldt is also frank about this. It does have some impact. "HSBC predicts that the US dollar will raise interest rates 2 times this year, but the Fed will be very careful to take this action."

Douglas Lippoldt believes that emerging markets are bound to release more economic vitality with reform and innovation. Unfortunately, the degree of global integration of emerging markets is relatively low, and tariff barriers are relatively high, about 5%.

In addition, non-tariff barriers to trade are also rising, which is more serious in the service trade than in the commodity trade, whether in developed economies or in emerging economies.

"Countries realize that promoting trade liberalization can release economic potential.

Some of the super trade agreements now emerging, including the p Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) and regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP), have great influence on China.

Douglas Lippoldt indicates.

At present, China has not yet entered the TPP negotiations. Most of the tariffs can be eliminated between the members of the trade agreement, which can liberate services and trade-related expenditures.

Douglas Lippoldt points out that the dominant industries of TPP members, such as clothing companies, can better enter the North American market, which is equivalent to further cuts.

Level, this may bring pressure to China's clothing and textile industry.

"RECP plans to abolish most of the tariffs and open up the service sector and completely liberalize investment.

Although the goal is not TPP ambitious, RECP's trade liberalization is also quite strong.

RECP is in line with the "one belt and one way". China will gain huge benefits as a member country.

Douglas Lippoldt pointed out that TPP and RECP have 7 member states that coincide. Eventually, the two agreements will close to each other and bring about 1 trillion and 900 billion dollars in revenue.

In the medium term, these two super agreements will take effect within 1~2 years, which will greatly improve the global trade pattern.

Douglas Lippoldt said it is expected that China's this year's

For 6.7%, "de capacity" will further optimize China's resource allocation.

By 2030, Hongkong and China will be the largest in mainland China.

China's share of Vietnam's exports will rise further, and exports to Japan and South Korea will be better. ASEAN will become China's more important trading partner.

In 2030, China's foreign trade will recover to an annual average of 2 digit growth, about 10%.

"Although the global economic outlook is still uncertain, the focus of Global trade will continue to move eastward."

Douglas Lippoldt points out that at the same time, the pattern of trade negotiations is undergoing rapid changes, and various regional and bilateral trade arrangements are constantly emerging, which is expected to further eliminate trade barriers and facilitate cross-border trade and convenience exchanges.

In view of the new pattern of trade, Douglas Lippoldt believes that in addition to the traditional human resources advantages, China's investment in education has been gradually rewarded over the years, because the quality of the workforce will be a very important part of the effort to engage in high value-added work.

In addition, Chinese enterprises have the advantage of economies of scale, and they can gain huge advantages in overseas competition. However, they still need to develop more differentiated products and invest in R & D and innovation. Brand building will also help Chinese enterprises to achieve differentiated advantages.