If Cotton Bears Bear Market, Where Should Cotton Enterprises Go?

At present, global commodities suffer from bear market and prices fall off cliff, especially during the Spring Festival.

The sharp drop in prices has led to the downward adjustment of domestic cotton prices, coupled with rumours of various dumping and production cuts in the market.

If there is a bear market for cotton, where should the cotton enterprises go? Let's listen to the voices of experts.

As the saying goes, "bull markets fight bravery, bear markets fight long."

In the current bear market environment, whether it is upstream cotton enterprises or downstream

The first task of enterprises in 2016 is to survive, and survival is the first element.

You can say that the market will improve after N years, but you will not have a chance to turn over after N+1 years.

At present, global commodities suffer from bear market, prices fall off cliff and fall to no need.

Enterprises are also opening the "go stock" mode. The so-called "de stocking mode" is popularly known as the "throwing mode", and in a short time to complete the "go to stock" task, can only take the "violence to inventory" mode, and the mode of selling on the limit plate appears again and again. This kind of "stampede" is inevitable.

As we all know, you can only survive faster than competitors.

In an old story, two people in a forest meet with a bear. The situation is very dangerous. The two men intend to run. The speed of escape determines the probability of survival.

Although they know that they may not be able to run the bear market, they still believe that if they can run one meter faster than the other party, they will avoid the fate of being eaten by a bear.

At this point, if you act as Party A or Party B, please play your imagination. What kind of countermeasures will you take according to several possible situations?

Cotton companies sell at a low price.

Is it faster to "slip"? A very figurative metaphor.

The net will be carried out in the month of 4/5, but if Xinjiang cotton is sold below the market price before the national cotton store is sold, then the market will be saturated. Who will sell the national cotton to the latter? In 2016, the potential of the national cotton store will be great.

Xinjiang cotton enterprises take the lead in bidding for cotton at a low price, and the market participants describe it as "a national army."

The state has thrown up a lot of cotton in the short time. The serious supply exceeds demand, the price is certainly not ideal, and there is still a suspicion of market pressure. If the national cotton is late, such as postponed to the second half of the year, it will face the season of 2016 cotton sale in October, and it will create a new supply exceeding demand.

Neither early nor late.

In the current downturn of downstream consumption, how to make big inventory disappear in a short time without damaging market confidence will challenge the wisdom of management and entrepreneurs.

In the market economy, who is willing to be a "pick up man"? Cotton enterprises are the best choice before grabbing the national reserve. Otherwise, cotton will be stored in the warehouse and the enterprises will not have the money to pay wages.

Let's take a look at the downstream capacity.

In 2016, the most optimistic estimate of China's Cotton (cotton fabric) consumption capacity is around 8 million tons (there are also institutions estimated at 600-650 tons, as crude oil prices fall and chemical fiber substitution will increase significantly), plus the import of 2 million 300 thousand tons of cotton yarn (calculated according to the wastage of 15%) is equivalent to the import of 2 million 650 thousand tons of cotton and the reduction of 894 thousand tons of cotton import quotas, 800-260-89.4=450.6 million tons.

There are also some quotas for import processing trade, and the amount of cotton used to import pure cotton grey cloth has not been reduced.

In 2016, the estimated market capacity of China's cotton production was about 4 million tons.

This 4 million ton "small cake" will be eaten by Xinjiang's cotton, real estate cotton, state reserve cotton, futures warehouse warehouse cotton, imported cotton and other "five King Kong". What do you think we should do? My friends who sell cotton salesmen share the experience: early release, no illusions, quality improvement, close to the market, use of the network, information pparency, reduce links and reduce costs.

When the bear comes, whether you squatting down your shoelaces or running hard or running away, in short, if you want to go back alive, you will have to take a step ahead of your opponent. There are many ways to make full use of your imagination.