China'S Economy Will Slow Down, Which Is Not Necessarily Bad For The Stock Market.

In anticipation of slowing economic growth, Li Xunlei still optimistic about the development of the financial industry.

"Our financial management has gone through the era of real estate in the era of deposits, and now it is entering the financial era. Funds are gathering to finance."

Li Xunlei said that last year, the financial contribution to China's GDP was very large, and the contribution rate reached 20% in the first three quarters, of which 30% reached the highest level in the first quarter. And from the volume of pactions, last year's A shares accounted for 1/3 of the global paction volume.

From the perspective of supply, interest rates go down, and capital market financing costs are relatively low, which is also conducive to the development of the financial industry.

In the future, with the aging of the population, more real estate will be realized and some of the funds will be invested in the financial sector.

"From the" three carriages "of stimulating the economy, at present, besides

Relatively stable, exports showed negative growth in the first quarter of this year, and investment growth also fell. "

Li Xunlei said, from an international perspective, in addition to the weak recovery of the US economy, other countries' economies are still in a slow downward process.

"Current real estate, manufacturing industry

They are all sliding down. "

Li Xunlei said that the growth rate of real estate investment last year was only 1%, which was close to zero.

The only thing that can be relied on now is investment in infrastructure, and the stock market has risen in the near future with the expected increase in infrastructure investment in railways, highways, farmland and water conservancy.

For the most important "human" elements of economic growth, Li Xunlei believes that when a country's economic growth declines, the growth rate of urbanization will drop sharply.

At present, China's population is aging, whether it is population.

Or the working age structure of the population has shifted in 2010.

At the same time, the real estate investment growth rate also reached its peak in 2010, and began to decline. This will lead to a decrease in real estate sales and a negative impact on the consumption of mass consumer goods.

"This year's pressure is indeed there. First, the depreciation of the RMB at the beginning of the year, but now the pressure is small, because the possibility of further raising interest rates of the Federal Reserve is smaller. Two, because of the structural reform of supply side, monetary policy will not be more relaxed than last year."

Li Xunlei said that the growth rate of M2 in January has risen to 14%, and liquidity has been very abundant.

Although China's economy is expected to slow down, Li Xunlei believes that this may not be a bad thing for the stock market. "The economy slowed down last year, but the stock market is still active."

He also believes that in the first quarter of last year, finance accounted for a relatively high proportion of GDP and a large pulling force on GDP. The growth rate of GDP will decline in the first quarter of this year, and the performance in the following quarters will be better.

For the overall trend of the stock market this year, Li Xunlei believes that under the premise that corporate profits are hard to grow, residents' investment risk preferences decline and the interest rate downwards space is limited, the domestic stock market still lacks the trend opportunity, and there will not be a big rise. "The judgment of the turning point of the market is especially cautious, and I think we should follow the trend".