Cotton Or "Jedi Rebound": Cotton Price Has 5%~15% Rebound Space

Data show that domestic

The current prices have shown a downward trend in recent years, and constantly refresh their historical low for nearly 5 years.

The spot market, the current domestic 3128B real estate cotton market price in 13000 yuan / ton, down 23.07% compared to the same period, compared with the highest price in February 2011 30900 yuan / ton fell 57.92%.

Futures market as of August 24th, the main contract CF601 settlement price of 12460 yuan / ton, compared with the August 10th low of 12370 yuan / ton rose 0.73%, compared with the February 2011 highest value 34540 yuan / ton fell 63.92%.

Cotton prices fell: high inventories, low demand and poor export situation.

Xia Ting analysis, a business analyst, believes that there are three main reasons for the continuous decline in cotton prices: first, high inventory pressure remains the same.

The deal was light.

Xia Ting said that at present, there are still tens of millions of tons of reserve cotton in the national reserve. However, due to weak demand, plus

Cotton competition, cotton reserves have been caught in an awkward situation of indigestion.

In early July of this year, cotton mills began to work, but the turnover was light.

Last week, the plan planned to sell 254 thousand and 300 tons of cotton reserves, and the actual turnover was 7 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 1 thousand and 600 tons compared with the previous week, with a turnover rate of 3.03%, up 0.64%.

But the turnover is still very small, which means little to the market.

Two, demand side improvement is weak, and textile enterprises are short of funds.

Xia Ting said that the improvement of downstream consumption is still weak.

Is still in the off-season, autumn orders are not large, with the old customers scattered, small single main.

Yarn factory sales are still not optimistic, inventory pressure is high, tight funds, business has not improved significantly, cotton consumption decreased.

Blended products increased, not cotton.

Consumption growth continues to dominate the cotton market.

Three, Southeast Asia seized the market and textile exports declined.

Xia Ting said that the export situation of textiles was not good. In July 2015, the export volume of textiles and clothing was 27 billion 254 million US dollars, an increase of 7.52% over the same period, down 10.19% from the same period last year.

Textile exports amounted to US $9 billion 515 million, down 5.86% compared to the same period last year, and clothing exports amounted to US $17 billion 739 million, down 12.36% from the same period last year.

In the first half of this year, China's textile and clothing exports decreased by 2.91% over the same period last year.

Southeast Asia and other countries continue to occupy China's textile market with their cost advantages, which in turn affect China's demand for cotton.

Cotton prices still have potential to rebound

Xia Ting also pointed out that although the situation of cotton is not optimistic, its positive factors also have two positive advantages: first, the USDA's supply and demand report is positive.

Recently, the US Department of agriculture cut production expectations and cotton prices soared.

According to the US Department of agriculture's global production and demand forecast for August, global cotton inventories decreased by 653 thousand tons in 2015/16, mainly due to the decline in cotton production in main producing countries.

Among them, the output of US cotton has been reduced by 10% to 2 million 852 thousand tons, due to the reduction of the actual broadcasting area, the increase in the rate of abandoned cultivation and the decrease in yield per unit area.

China's cotton production has been cut by 218 thousand tons, India has cut 109 thousand tons, and Uzbekistan has also been reduced. Two, the pressure on the supply side of the cotton market will be reduced. According to the sampling survey of the main cotton producing counties in 13 cotton producing provinces in the whole country, the actual planting area of cotton in 2015 is expected to be 52 million 640 thousand mu, 13 million 450 thousand mu less than that in 2014, and 20% reduction; the total output of cotton in the country is 5 million 500 thousand tons, a decrease of 14% over the same period.

In terms of imports, according to the General Administration of Customs of China, in July 2015, 105 thousand and 700 tons of cotton imported from China decreased by 56 thousand and 100 tons, or 34.67%.

From September 2014 to July 2015, China imported 1 million 600 thousand and 900 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1 million 197 thousand and 700 tons compared with that of the previous year, a decrease of 42.80%.

In the positive role, cotton futures market has been showing signs of good.

In this week, other commodities have low innovation, cotton main contract trend is relatively stable, ready to go, looking for a breakthrough opportunity.

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Liu Xintian, the chief editor of China business development center and China Commodity Development Research Center, pointed out that cotton will become the "pioneer" of the first big rebound in commodity decline.

There are three reasons: first, the recent bad profits have been basically digested, while the good ones have not yet been worked out. The coming golden nine silver ten will stimulate the concentrated outbreak of cotton potential. Two, this year's El Nino phenomenon may be the strongest since records. The influence of climatic conditions will lead to the decline of cotton production and the increase of cotton demand. Three, from the price point of view, the domestic yarn and imported yarn begin to be competitive because of the long term bottom of cotton prices, and from the substitution point of view, the price of viscose begins to be higher than that of cotton, which also has a positive effect on cotton demand.

Liu Xintian predicted that cotton prices or 5%~15% rebounding space, and the rebound window may be from the end of August to the middle of September, from September to the end of 10, the probability of concussion finishing is larger. In November, or hitting 13800~14000 yuan / ton price range, the possibility of entering the bottom shock will be greater in the middle and late 11.