PTA Weak Pattern Will Continue

As the main chemical product of downstream crude oil, the price fluctuation of PTA is highly related to the trend of crude oil.

It can be said that crude oil price directly determines the price center of PTA.

In June 5th, the OPEC oil ministers' meeting did not reach agreement on a reduction in production. The game between the main producers of the Middle East crude oil and the supply of shale oil in the United States continued.

With the successful conclusion of the Iran nuclear agreement, the yoke of Iran's crude oil export sanctions has been lifted, and Iran's export to the international crude oil market will gradually recover.

The pressure of oversupply has weighed heavily on the international crude oil market, which will lead to a weaker oil price for a long time.

In addition, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates strongly in September, and the US dollar will start the cycle of raising interest rates since then, and the commodities represented by crude oil will remain under pressure for a long time.

As the crude market returns to the bear market again, the PTA price center will undoubtedly move down.

Short term dynamics

Seriously affected, the recent planned maintenance device increased significantly, becoming the main factors to support the disk: Yizheng chemical fiber and Ya Dong Petrochemical are scheduled to be serviced in mid August, and the Zhuhai BP100 million ton plant is planned to be overhauled at the end of August. Honggang petrochemical and Hon Bang petrochemical company plan to overhaul in September.

In addition, Hengli Petrochemical three PTA production line has started the annual overhaul recently. In August 6th, two production lines were stopped and overhauled, and third production lines were overhauled at the beginning of September, and the specific driving time was determined by market conditions.

Accompanied by

The spot price is strong, and the current price differentials are narrowing.

It began to flow out, or even part of it, directly to the hands of PTA manufacturers, making it easier for the previous market to worry about the cancellation of warehouse receipts and to become one of the important factors supporting futures prices.

At the beginning of July, under the combined effect of the weakness of crude oil and oversupply of PTA, the price of PTA futures fell sharply from 5000 yuan / ton to 4500 yuan / ton, and the overall decline was 10%.

Later, due to the aggravation of the loss of PTA factory, the planned maintenance device began to increase, which played a significant supporting role in the PTA spot price.

After centralized maintenance, the weak pattern of PTA will continue.

Although the maintenance of short-term PTA devices is more centralized, it has not seen that too many devices are really planned to be shut down or eliminated for a long time.

Generally speaking, the repair period of the PTA device is 15-20 days, and after the overhaul, it will be opened again.

In addition, Xiang Lu petrochemical plant plans to re start the near future, then PTA dynamic supply will return to a relaxed situation.

In the late PTA, the fundamentals are still empty. In the absence of PX repair and coordination, PTA has limited space to rebound and will soon be weak after the short term strengthening. The futures contract will be reduced to 1601 yuan, and the disk price will drop to 4500 yuan / ton again.

In addition to the restart of maintenance equipment, the pressure of releasing new capacity is still huge.

It is reported that Sichuan Shengda 1 million PTA device has been postponed to the end of the year, and the new capacity of 2 million 200 thousand tons of Hon Bang Petrochemical will also be completed in the four quarter, and commissioning will be put into operation.

Over the long term, the problem of oversupply in the PTA market will continue.