The Trend Of Cotton Price Is Directly Influenced By The External Market.

The US GDP growth has been good to stimulate the US dollar strength, and the Fed meeting statement affirmed the US economic activity and the labor market improvement, caused the market to worry about the Federal Reserve raising interest rate, estimated that the US Federal Reserve raised interest rate steadily for the first time, the Greek crisis in the euro area eased, the economic climate index increased, the Chinese manufacturing data fell, and the economic downward pressure did not decrease.

For a long time, the cotton market will continue to suffer from oversupply for a long time. The rising trend is difficult to form. It is estimated that cotton prices will continue to be weak in the coming week, and there may still be some downsides. New cotton will have some small opportunities to be noticed before coming to the market.

This week, the market is still not new. The trend of cotton prices is directly disturbed by the external market. The Fed has raised interest rates, the main countries' stock market has not performed well, and commodity prices have fallen. So far, these negative effects will not disappear for a while. They will continue to exist and will continue to ferment, which will adversely affect cotton and other bulk commodities.

The global high inventories of cotton prices continue to exist and need to increase the demand and reduce production to mediate this excess supply situation. But in reality, the demand side is slow to improve, and the growth of cotton consumption in Southeast Asian countries is dragged down by China's demand.

The planting area of the United States has been reduced, but the growth of cotton is excellent and the yield per unit area is expected to increase. The increase in output in India and Brazil is partly offset by the reduction of cotton production in China and other countries.

China's self inventory process is slow.

In the future, the quota of imported cotton will continue to be limited, and the pattern of oversupply will still take a long time to improve.

But this does not have any chance for the market. The market has been digesting the oversupply factors for a long time. The weather has become a crucial factor in the future. The main cotton producing areas in China are Xinjiang and the United States.

Cotton crops in Texas are suffering from high temperature and need to cool down and have enough rainfall. If Dezhou cotton is sown later, if frost arrives early, it will have a significant impact on cotton production in the area. Rainfall in India core cotton area is also less. Continuous rainstorms in Pakistan cotton area also cause floods, which have a certain impact on cotton production. Future weather factors are the most potential and most powerful factors, which may be the main force to support cotton price rebound.

Domestic market information is flat, cotton price trend is not warm, the market demand is low, the reserve cotton paction is scarce, it can be said that it is better than nothing. 10 million of the reserve cotton inventory is difficult to digest at present, but it should always be put into the market. Under the control of the state, the cotton reserves should be reduced to a reasonable level, and the future cotton reserves will continue to be implemented.

New cotton is also on the market, the supply of the market is increasing, and the demand for improvement is slow. It is foreseeable that in the future, domestic cotton oversupply will be more prominent and will continue to suppress cotton prices, but it will be supported by cost and the country has certain market support intentions. The market has already digested the bad profits through the big fall, and the possibility of a big fall in the future will be smaller. The domestic cotton price and the international cotton price difference will gradually shrink, and the impact of the imported yarn will also weaken, which will help stabilize the domestic cotton price. In the long term, the 1601 month contract will have strong support near 12000.

In addition, we should pay attention to the weather conditions. The key factors of cotton longevity are weather factors, and the yield and quality of cotton. This may be a potential advantage in the near future.