Zheng Cotton Takes A Narrow Range Of Thinking To Do More Or Not.

1. spot: this year's textile industry will be ahead of schedule. In addition, due to the centralized purchase of a batch of lint by textile enterprises in December 2014, it still can last for a period of time.

Two subsidy By January 2015, with the imminent approach of cotton target price subsidy in Xinjiang, the progress and amount of follow-up subsidies have attracted much attention. Although the central government allocated 3 billion 500 million yuan in Xinjiang for the long time, the cotton farmers generally expect to get full subsidies as soon as possible.

Three Stock According to the sampling survey of the national cotton market monitoring system, as of January 7th, the average daily use of cotton in the sample enterprises was about 28.3 days (including the quantity of cotton imported to Hong Kong), an increase of 3.2 days, a decrease of 7 days compared with the same period last year. According to relevant data projections, the national cotton industry inventory of about 626 thousand tons, an increase of 12.6%, an increase of 17.5% over the same period last year. Cotton industry stocks in different provinces are different, and Fujian, Zhejiang and Hubei are relatively large.

4. the January ICAC: International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) issued a forecast of supply and demand in January. Since the spring of last year, the international cotton price has plummeted, from 90 cents or above to 80 cents at the end of the year, to below 70 cents in December.

Five Xinjiang cotton Up to January 9, 2015, 4 million 90 thousand tons of lint were processed in Xinjiang. According to the national cotton market monitoring system in October 2014, the total output of lint cotton in Xinjiang was 4 million 199 thousand tons. At present, the prediction results of lint processing and monitoring system in Xinjiang are only about 100 thousand tons. I believe that by the end of 1, the cumulative processing capacity of lint in Xinjiang will reach 419 million tons.

6. ICE cotton: in January 9th, traders adjusted their positions before the announcement of the USDA monthly report. After the concussion in March, they closed up slightly, and the contracts fell slightly.

Zheng cotton has recently dealt with a narrow range of shocks. It is better to buy more than just a single amount of money, and the amount of CF1505 is 13000 yuan / ton. Pay attention to the supply and demand report released by USDA today.

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In January 11th, the sale price of local 3128 grade lint was 13100 yuan / ton (gross weight was raised from the ticket price), and the sale price of grade 4128 lint was 12600 yuan / ton, compared with the day before yesterday. At present, spot sales are more difficult, because most of cotton enterprises sell mainly to textile enterprises, but textile enterprises are less motivated to buy. The main reasons are: first, most of the large textile enterprises that can apply for quotas will have enough stock on the eve of new year's day, slow down the pace of purchase after the festival; two, the Spring Festival is coming soon, and textile enterprises will have difficulty in capital turnover, and insist on purchasing textile enterprises to buy with them, and it is a small batch of piecemeal purchases. Three, the downstream consumption of textile enterprises is still in a weak trend, and it is difficult to improve in a short time.

Some cotton enterprises insist on hedging in the Zheng cotton futures market, but with the acquisition process, the quality of seed cotton has declined. According to the test data of a local cotton enterprise, the number of white cotton grade 4 and light spot cotton grade 2 has increased, the white cotton grade 4 premium is 500 yuan / ton, the spot cotton grade 2 discount is 700 yuan / ton, the profit margin of the warehouse cotton has been engulfed, and it has already been in a loss situation. Therefore, some cotton enterprises indicate that if we want to continue hedging in the futures market, we must first ensure the quality of the seed cotton purchased, and only if we keep the quality of the seed cotton to make the warehouse cotton is meaningful. Therefore, in the later process of seed cotton purchase, cotton enterprises will be cautious to purchase, buy or reject low quality cotton seeds or refuse to sell at low prices.

Recently, the purchase price of 3 cotton seed cotton in local cotton enterprises was 2.95 yuan / kg (lint percentage 38%, moisture regain 13%). The purchase price of white cotton 4 grade seed cotton was 2.85 yuan / Jin, and the daily purchase quantity was less. As cotton seed cotton purchase is not active, seed cotton purchase quantity is less, cottonseed output is limited, cotton enterprises have strong desire to cotton seed price, the current offer is 1.15 yuan / Jin, compared with last week. According to the 3% loss, plus the cost of 1000 yuan per ton, the white cotton 3 level production cost is 12950 yuan / ton. If the two notarization test results in a demotion phenomenon, the profit margin of the production warehouse can be compressed, so it is possible to enter the loss. There are still more than a month to go before the Spring Festival. Most cotton growers are on the one hand selling cotton for use. On the other hand, fireworks and firecrackers are being set up during the Spring Festival.