Two Factors Of Supply And Demand Support The Steady Performance Of Employment.

First of all, China's economic volume is much larger than before, so that it can still create more jobs in cities and towns than the previous two digit growth. In 2013, the actual GDP scale of China was 2.6 times larger than that of ten years ago, and 50% higher than that of 2008. Assuming that there is no structural adjustment in the economy, we estimate that the actual GDP growth rate of 6.5% in 2015 will still create a new non-agricultural employment equivalent to the GDP growth rate of 11% in 2008, although the growth rate of non-agricultural employment will slow down from 2.6% in 2008 to 2.1%.

Secondly, the labor intensive service sector is growing faster. The labor intensity of China's service industry is 1.9 times that of the industrial sector, and the proportion of service industry in the economy has improved in recent years. In addition, the labour intensity of the construction industry is also higher than that of the industry. In the past few years, the construction industry has maintained a rapid growth (until recently). Therefore, from 2008 to 2013, the labor elasticity coefficient of China's non-agricultural sector's economic growth tends to increase on the whole as a whole. 2. In addition, the volatility of the growth of the service sector is relatively small, and it also contributes to the stability of the overall employment.

In the past year and a half, the government has promoted the development of the service sector through decentralization and lowering the access threshold. According to the SAIC data, the number of newly registered enterprises has increased significantly since the second half of 2013, especially in the service sector (up nine in the first nine months of 2014). The number of newly registered private enterprises increased from 900 thousand in the second half of 2012 and 1 million in the first half of 2013 to 1 million 300 thousand in the second half of 2013 and 1 million 600 thousand in the first half of 2014. As the government further advances this aspect, reform We expect that the service sector and related employment will continue to grow rapidly.

Again, population structure Change means a slowdown in labor supply. In the past thirty years, China has strictly implemented the family planning policy, and the birth rate has been decreasing. This has led to the decline of the 15-24 year old population in China since 2008. According to the prediction of the UN Population department, the population growth rate of this age group is experiencing the biggest decline. We estimate that the number of potential new labour force (15-24 years of age and no higher education) has been decreasing since 2008.

Last, Obtain employment Usually lag indicators, employment pressure next year may still be aggravated. In any economy, employment is generally lagging indicators, especially in China. Looking back at 2008-09, China's export and construction industry suffered heavy losses at that time, and the two industries were labor-intensive industries, and they could be flexibly adjusted, so layoffs and unemployment immediately appeared. By contrast, the current export is still stable, and thanks to the support of affordable housing and infrastructure, the adjustment of the construction industry is more moderate than that of 2008. In addition, the most difficult situation is heavy industries and extractive industries, which are mostly state-owned enterprises and are difficult to lay off arbitrarily. And for state-owned enterprises, labor costs are usually not important for financing costs. Nevertheless, if these industries continue to decline and factories and mines are further closed, unemployment next year will probably increase. In addition, as the real estate construction activities continue to decline in the future, the labor intensive construction industry will further decline, which will lead to more unemployment.